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Maybe the Sox can just include tazawa in a deal for felix or gonzalez instead of Buchholz.

Do you think guys the equivalent of Buchholz just grow on trees? Or do you think that Tazawa is a really, really special pitcher? I think he'll be good, but I don't think he'll be anything like Buchholz overall.

Am I the only one who was tired of the Wakefield mediocre-go-round 3 years ago? At this point I wonder if they'll ever get over Wake when he's gone. They may believe from now on that they shoudn't have to pay more than $4m for a 5th pitcher, ever.

Tazawa could be up in the majors this year. I don't think he will be like Buchholz, but he could end up as a good pitcher. I thought his stuff was pretty good for a guy in his first professional year.

I for one am in favor of getting him as a FA. I was not interested in trading to get him. The reason? With Boras as his agent he wouldn't sign a longer term deal so they would still have had to acquire him this off-season via free agency.

I think it is enough for 95 wins. They will have Buchholz and Dice-K (hopefully) healthy, an immediate improvement over the pitching they had this year. They will also have Victor Martinez for a full season instead of Varitek. That's an offensive boost. I agree that they will not have closed the gap on the Yankees.

I don't expect the Sox to go after Lackey. I wouldn't have a problem with it, but I think the cost will be prohibative. John Lackey WARP (from BP, WARP Leaders) 2009: 3.0 2008: 3.4 2007: 7.5 2006: 4.8 2005: 3.6 2004: 2.6 2003: 0.8 2002: 1.2 Good FA Starting pitchers are expensive commodities. If Lackey repeated his past 4 years, he will have been worth roughly 18.7 wins above replacement. That's 4.67 WARP per season. Thats a good season, the equivalent of somewhere between Pedroia (3.4) and Papelbon (4.9), and considerably better than JD Drew (2.7) as point of reference. That's not good enough from your #1 pitcher, which is what Lackey will undoubtedly be billed as while he's sold around the league to other teams. It isn't an advantageous position for the Red Sox to jump into if they want to put their money to good use; they're not trying to buy a third #3 pitcher for the price of a #1. Instead of signing Lackey to a deal that is likely to be really expensive and more than they want to pay (as is the nature of FA negotiations 9 times out of 10), perhaps they'll talk to Toronto again about Roy Halladay and pay his salary for one season and ship off some prospects, making a run with the core guys and Halladay, then letting him join FA with everyone else. I think this current team with Bay or Holliday and Roy Halladay could beat the Yankees over the course of a season. Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Dice-K would be really fun. If they did that it would increase their salary next year, but it would drop enormously after 2010 when Halladay ($15.75m, Ortiz ($12.5m), Lowell ($12m), Beckett ($12m), and Martinez ($7m) would all come off. That would be about $60m of yearly salary off the books, with another group of prospects ready to start contributing as well. Plus, they would stand a really good chance to win in 2010.

They cant stand pat, but I wouldnt be shocked if they signed Bay and a few role players... maybe Harden too, and called it good. I too want some new toys to be excited about, but if their goal is 95 wins, they're there.

First 3 full seasons: Holliday: 1632 PA: .310/.368/.533/.902 (162 G: 22 HR, 86 RBI) Youkilis: 1926 PA: .293/..387/.483/.869 (162 G: 19 HR, 90 RBI) First 4 full seasons: Holliday: 2345 PA: .319/.380/.556/.935; (162 G: 30 HR, 115 RBI) Youkilis: 2514 PA: .296/.393/.498/.891; (162 G: 21 HR, 91 RBI) * Of course, those were Holliday's age 24, 25 and 26 seasons, and Youk's age 27, 28, and 29 seasons.

Kotchman has 2 years of arb left I believe. Wagner wanted to not have his option picked up and I imagine the sox will honor that request and hope to get a draft pick. That leaves Byrd and Baldelli. I like Baldelli, I just wish he was reliably healthy. If he were he would be a great platoon partner. Since he's not I would prefer that the Sox look around for something else. If Byrd is necessary next year then this club hasn't done its job in the offseason.

Really long post. A reply to Dojji's good posts, via Kilo... This is probably true, but even you have acknowledged that Holliday's grass IS greener, so can you blame us? Check out the "Similar Batters" list on B-R. Yes, Bay is a comparable to Holliday, #2 on Holliday's list, actually, behind David Wright. Holliday, however, is a lower comparable to Bay. Not sure what to make of it... other than it is interesting. I take it to mean that Holliday is a more "unique" collection of skills than Bay is. Probably because of the combination of AVG and Power. ** Interesting note: Here's that list of ACTIVE AVG LEADERS that I posted earlier: Pujols-.3337 Ichiro-.3328 Helton-.3280 Vlad-.3213 Holliday-.3182 Jeter-.3172 Manny-.3132 Nomar-.3127 Magglio-.3120 Cabrera-.3112 David Wright-.3086 Chipper-.3075 Cano-.3065 A-Rod-.3048 Alou-.3032 Only the players in BOLD have a higher career SLG than Holliday. Of that fantastic list of active players who lead baseball in career AVG, only Pujols, Helton, Vlad, Manny and A-Rod have higher career SLG than Holliday. Make of it what you will, to me that's an impressive group. A slightly better offensive version of Youkilis is really, really good. Through Youkilis's age 28 season, he had a career line of .280/.383/.434/.818 Through Holliday's age 28 season, he has a career line of .319/.386/.552/.938 Holliday switched leagues, played in a tougher park for the first half, was unsure about whether he would be traded, etc., I don't think this year is a great comparison, but Holliday's OBP was still better by 10 points. Again, I love the idea of Holliday settling down, getting his big paycheck and his spot in LF and playing a few seasons in the same place, in multiple pennant races. He would likely have Ellsbury, Pedroia and Victor Martinez on one side of him, Youkilis, Ortiz and Drew on the other. His IsoD has progressed as such: [table] YEAR | AVG | OBP | IsoD 2004 | .290 | .349 | .059 2005 | .307 | .361 | .054 2006 | .326 | .387 | .061 2007 | .340 | .405 | .065 2008 | .321 | .409 | .087 2009 | .313 | .394 | .083 [/table] This is a .400 OBP kind of guy. His OBP went UP when he lost 20 points on his AVG between 2007 and 2008, and his IsoD stayed roughly the same in 2009, which tells me he made a "jump" of sorts in terms of his plate discipline. What does that acquired discipline combined with that kind of career average (the ability to put the ball in play hard, basically) say? It tells me that if he manages to have another season where he's hitting .320 with a .400 OBP he will be an absurdly productive player in the middle of this Sox lineup. I believe that in a bad year Holliday will have a season like Bay did this year (overall production wise) and probably be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th most valuable player on the team. In good years he will lead the club in WARP, or compete with the team's best pitcher. Ahhh, maybe this is where we differ. I don't feel they need a HR hitter. I feel they need a hitter who is both selective and aggressive and who can hit a HR, but can just rip the ball too. They are harder to find than HR hitters. Different skillset means different numbers. Different numers mean different value. Taking out 2007, last 2 years (2008-2009): Bay: .277/.378/.529/.907 Holliday: .317/.401/.526/.927 INCLUDING 2007: Bay: .267/.362/.493/.855 Holliday: .325/.403/.555/.958 Bay may have been more consistent, but over the past 2 years and past 3 years Holliday has been the better player by a lot. Bay had a great year this year and played well when he was traded. Mike Lowell had a great year in 2007 and they've been regretting his contract since the beginning of this year.

You missed my point. I think it might stop them from committing long-term to Bay. Not Holliday. Holliday is likely to be able to field, Bay is less likely so. If the Sox can land Holliday my money says the Yankees play it safe with Damon or Matsui for another year or two and they will probably be just fine doing so.... It depends how they do it. If they sign Bay because it is easier, or because they're afraid to go against the Yankees or afraid to disenfranchise Bay, then I think it would be stupid... I don't expect that from this FO. I think Drew money sounds about right for Bay. I proposed 18, 19, 20, 19, 18 over 5 years for Holliday, or something like that, with options and incentives, etc.,

I trust the FO to make the right decision re: Papelbon. They won't trade him for nothing but if he's not going to re-sign with them before he's a FA they should move him. The choice is Papelbon's. He's already left a shitload of money on the table by not extending himself through his pre-arb years, and I'm starting to think he dropped his splitter and disregarded his slider to save his arm so he's available as a FA. I can't blame him, but I don't think it is great for the Sox to hold onto him if that is the case. I don't trust that Jason Bay want to move to the West Coast so he won't be fielding offers from east coast teams. It may be one factor among many. CC wanted to move to the West Coast too..

Can you reiterate the argument here, so I can address it (or agree with it?), since I don't want to go back and find it/read through all of the bickering between you and Dipre? I, for one, like Dojji and have since he got here. People rag on him way too much. He's one of the people that makes this board a good place, even if he's really overenthusiastic about prospects and sometimes says silly things. Overall, he's good in my book. What do you think about my concerns re: the Yankees getting Holliday? Do you think that your concerns about Bay (his need to move to DH in the next few years) coupled with the enormous contracts the Yankees gave to Teix and A-Rod, mean that they would be unlikely to pursue Bay as aggressively as Holliday, as they cannot risk tying up the DH position lest A-Rod or Teix need to move there eventually? It seems reasonable to me. I could see the Yankees being very interested in Holliday if the Sox are stupid enough to just sign whichever signs first (my money is on the non-Boras client, Bay), and not being that interested in Bay at all. I can also see the Yankees getting Bay and ultimately ending up with a logjam of talented hitters trying to get the DH spot.

What if the thing that we all agree about, that Holliday is better, is TRUE, and he signs in NY, and puts up .315/.405/.565 for them over the next few years? We will have signed the inferior player and the better player would have gone to our rivals, a team that is aleady better. Net loss. It could be based on erronious thinking that Bay and Holliday are basically interchangable. I bet the Yankees would be less enticed by the prospect of 5 years of Bay than of Holliday and I bet they are really, really hoping the Sox don't drive up the price for Holliday by being interested in him. I'm frightened by the idea of Teixeira, A-Rod, Holliday for the next 6 years. My stance is that I don't believe that the Yankees will spend "whatever it takes" (my quotes, not yours) to get him. I think they will nonetheless make a competitive offer, but the Sox can hang in the competitive offer range. The Sox will lose out on him if the Yankees make the "He's a special player" offer and the Sox make the "he's one of a few good players available" offer. In fact, other teams (mentioned by others, above) might make the "he's a special player" offer too, so the Sox will not just be competing with the Yankees. If the Sox view him as just barely better than Bay, they'll end up with Bay. If they view him as just barely worse than Teixeira, they'll get him. I think there's reason to think he's closer to Teixeira than Bay and I fear that the Sox--if they take the conservative view you eespoused--will get creamed if they settle for Bay... even though Bay is an excellent player. I think that if the Yankees get Hollliday then they will win regardless of what the Sox do, unless the Sox make a bigger move for Gonzalez/Felix type player. It isn't about signing the first one that agrees, I think it is about making the one they want agree. Tell Holliday that he'll be the centerpiece of the Sox offense for most of the next decade, right there with Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis. Sell him on being a star in Boston and pay him huge sums of money to do it. Yes Dipre, your analysis seemed sound to me.

This doesn't answer my question, which is really a "where moneyball meets the road" type question. I'm not asking for the difference between them in terms of BA. I can look that up and figure out the difference. I'm asking what that difference MEANS. What does it MEAN that Holliday is a career .318 hitter? He's 57th all time in career BA, 5th among current players. Here's the top 10: Pujols-.3337 Ichiro-.3328 Helton-.3280 Vlad-.3213 Holliday-.3182 Jeter-.3172 Manny-.3132 Nomar-.3127 Magglio-.3120 Cabrera-.3112 David Wright-.3086 Chipper-.3075 Cano-.3065 A-Rod-.3048 Alou-.3032 That's quite a list of careers. Again though, what does it mean? What difference does it make? I think it means that Holliday is a great hitter, and that it actually makes a pretty big difference if we assume it is actually reflective of their actual talents rather than something based on sample size. We saw with Victor Martinez what it can mean to get someone with a good OBP and a good AVG, he hits the ball more often and was more aggressive than other players with lower AVGs. All things being equal, I'll take the guy who has only had one season under .300. I want to be very clear about this: I, for one, am not discrediting Hollidays time in Oakland. I'm actually imploring people to notice: in Oakland he had a .378 OBP and a .831 OPS. By comparison Dustin Pedroia had a .371/.819 line for the whole season. If when Holliday struggles he is a .378 OBP guy then sign me up. He switched teams and leagues and his OBP held up. That's way more telling than a power dip in a bigger pitcher-friendly ballpark during the first few months of the season. I'm not advocating Holliday because I don't like Bay. I'm advocating Holliday because looking at his numbers I see a better player. I see someone who, if signed to a big deal and put in Fenway Park, could settle in really well and ultimately mash like he did in Colorado. He will probably take a contract somewhere between what Bay will get and what Teixeira got, but I think he'll be worth it.

at work... can't... reply.... must... work.... Dipre is.... right... big... difference... between... the two... gasp... choke... will reply later....

I think this question is actually a combination of how the Sox run their team, and what they value. Bay had the ability to hit 4th on nearly any team. The Sox prefered to have Youkilis hit 4th. Youks had 28 points in OBP on Bay, and 11 points in SLG. In OPS Bay (.921) vs. Youkilis (.961) had a pretty significant difference. There are 19 players who put up a higher OPS than Bay. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez are all on that list. Each had an OBP over .400, and each had a better SLG. Those are the names I have seen discussed as at the top of the "upgrade" list for this lineup. I don't think anyone is saying that Bay can't hit cleanup relative to all the other options out there, but compared to Youkilis and the three other offensive names people are throwing out most often, Bay isn't quite there. Neither was Holliday this year, but I imagine that in future years, with a big contract and playing in Fenway with this lineup, he could be very quickly. The thing we can all agree on is that having guys like Youkilis (and Bay if he sticks around) means that they could potentially be one of the best offensive supporting casts ever if that really big hitter comes along.

The Red Sox are going to be as selective with Bay as he is about resigning with them. Again, they got Bay because they COULD, not because they really, really wanted to. I bet they would give Bay a B+ as an overall player, Holliday an A-, and Manny an A (salary and attitude aside). If they have to pay Holliday close to Teixeira money (eventually touching 20m a year) I'd be okay with it, if the deal is short enough. He really has had great numbers. They are often disregaded because of COL, but he gets on base better, strikes out a hell of a lot less, and has a higher OPS. His .318 career AVG speaks to his ability to make contact and be aggressive at the plate, and those things all give him a minor (but significant) advantage over Bay. If you're buying the luxary car you want all the bells and whistles, not just most of them. Free Agency is the one chance the Sox have to get the players they want, not the generic version. I agree with Kilo that there's a high risk of Boras dicking the Sox around, but not if they can get it to the point where there's an AAV on the table. If they can get there it is worth just sealing the deal and moving forward. Two years ago I would have hand picked Holliday as a replacement for Manny or Ortiz. Now he's available. There's too many reasons not to just fork out the money and do it.

I can't believe this conversation is really happening here. What's in it for San Diego? They would get 5-6 players who are all very promising, possibly an offer where one team WAY overpays for a player because they can. Why would you want the customer who just got a $100,000 bonus to come into your store? The Sox have a number of (percieved) good lottery tickets. From the virtually guaranteed win (Buchholz) to the probable useful MLB regular (Bowden, Tazawa, Kelly) to the possible high-upside contributer (Kalish, Reddick, Anderson) to the big bodied/high tools projects (Almanzar, Middlebrooks, Westmoreland, Gibson, Lin). There's a shitload to like in what the Sox are selling. That said, the Sox cannot trade Buchholz unless they have addressed their pitching future. With Beckett's impending FA status, and Dice-K's inconsistency, they would really have no option for a 4th or 5th starter unless they have Buchholz or another top 3 guy. Add in the fact that's he's CHEAP, and he's GOOD, and that he could be REALLY GOOD, and they deal him at the risk of crippling their pitching staff for years to come. They have plenty of prospects that can be dealt--and lots of good ones, I believe, who cannot (the 2009 draft class, in particular). Would anyone complain if they dealt Bowden, Anderson, Reddick and Lin to San Diego? How about Kalish, Kelly, Tazawa and Rizzo? That's a lot of good talent going the other way, and none of it impacts the team immediately. If they obtain that bat--say it is Gonzalez, and resign Bay or get Holliday, then I'd be open to some version of Buchholz for Halladay or Buchholz for Felix. Obviously I prefer the later. Even with Halladay, they'd have a good shot next year with: Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Scrap Heap as a rotation and a 3, 4, 5 of Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday with Youkilis, Ortiz and Drew behind it. Jesus.

Great. Thanks for the update. They are the best team in baseball. There is little question about that. If they add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday they will be better. Whether or not they win the WS really isn't relevant. The point is that the Sox may be watching the Yankees ahead of them for years to come if they don't do something now.