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From the limited video highlights I've seen, Aroldis Chapman has occasionally dominant stuff and a long, smooth delivery. His stuff is undoubtedly impressive, especially from a lefty. Assuming that the Sox believe his age and have scouted him enough to know who he is, how much should they be willing to go on a guy like this? Daniel Bard was worth about $3.8m last year (at fangraphs). If Chapman could project to at least be a mid-3ERA late-inning/setup guy, I suspect he could be worth $5m a year. If he can project as a SP he could be worth much more. The question may be whether teams have the $$ or the faith to be assured that he is most useful as a SP. If nobody does then I imagine the Sox would be among the highest bidders, taking a relatively low-risk, high-reward stance. At his age I imagine the Sox could turn him into a potentially devistating LH compliment to Bard at the back of the pen, or a servicable (if dominant) LH #5 starter in 2 years. There's a lot of value to controlling someone like that for 5-6 years of his development. The acquisition cost might be pretty high, but the overall value cost might not be. Would a 5 yr/$30m offer be absurd to get that arm for 5 years? How high and for how long should they be willing to go on a pre-prime, world-class arm? Could this type of talent be "undervalued"? Finally, could there be benefit to the Sox making themselves more known to Cuban players? Signing Jose Iglesias may have started that process already, but getting Chapman would certainly progress it and that seems smart to me. It could ultimately be worth a few million dollars over the length of the contract in itself (especially if US-Cuban relations improve at all). Perhaps the Sox think about being primed for the day that Cubans can freely play in MLB and become FAs; I imagine there would be some tremendous talent immediately available for teams that can be reasonably large and lengthy deals.

I have to say, this is one shoddy collection of $117m contracts. Looking at it in spreadsheet form my only reaction is that I would understand Theo wanting to want a year before making a significant splash in FA given how much is being spent on Lugo, Lowell and Ortiz (33m between the 3 of them). Like it or not, they're stuck with those guys. Personally, I think all three are virtually worthless. Right, Ortiz hit more HRs than anyone in the world after June 6th or whatever, but IMO he was not worth much, let alone more than 10% of the team's payroll. I trust the FO to use their money wisely, but even they can't get out from contracts that suck.

I'm inclined to agree with both of you. The context of my post was Jacko arguing that SD wouldn't center a package around Kelly and Westmoreland--or that such a return (with the other pieces I mentioned)--would be a huge disappointment for San Diego (and therefore unlikely). My point is that Westmoreland is a potential star, and Kelly might be in the same class. I would be shocked if both were included in any deal, but it could net quite a return.

Probably not the first impression the Sox were hoping he would make to potential fans. I appreciate a man who likes a good time, but these pics are pretty over the top.

I can't wait until Rivera finally hangs up his spikes. Yankee fans are already spoiled by their enormous payroll, but to also fall ass-backwards into possibly the greatest pitcher in the history of the game gives them an advantage that I think is too often overlooked. I'm willing to get into the discussion about greatest pitchers ever and having Rivera be part of it. I would never say that about an lights-out reliever who was dominant for a season or two (or 5), but a lock down, lights-out closer who regularly leads the most well-stocked team in baseball in WARP year after year after year, performing on the biggest stage imaginable, is just as valuable as any great SP and, I would argue, in the playoffs he is more valuable--especially when he can go two innings. I can't wait until there is some mortal human being in that position (even if it is someone "only" as good as Papelbon or Broxton). One f***ing pitch and a decade and a half later and people are still flailing as if they don't know what is coming. Jesus. Dude is a beast. Time for him to go away.

Let's look at Teixeira's deal from Texas to Atlanta (if you want to look at more YOU can do the research): Teixeira: traded 7/1/07 (27) 1.5 years left: Beau Jones (P): A_Aadv (20) Elvis Andrus (SS): A_Aadv (18) Neftali Feliz (P): Rookie (19) Matt Harrison (P): AA (21) Jarrod Saltalamacchia ©: MLB (22) Who do you think were the "top prospects" he was traded for? Ostensibly it was Harrison and Saltalamacchia. Who would you take from that list now? Do you think it was random that Andrus and Feliz were chosen among that 5? I bet Texas knew they were really good players who, in a few short years, would be able to help the team. Now, let's play this out with Gonzalez: Gonzalez: (27) 2 years left: Casey Kelly (P): A_adv (20) Ryan Westmoreland (CF): A_ss (19) Stolmy Pimentel (P): A_adv (19) Lars Anderson (1B ): AA (22) Michael Bowden (P): MLB (23) Does this seem even comparable? I would say so. I see an MLB and AA player in there, two A_adv players and a short-season A player. Anderson was the Sox top prospect before a disappointing year. This would be the ultimate sell-low for the Sox. Anyway... So, two packages: Package 1: ATL: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, Rookie BOS: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, A ss By age the Sox package is more advanced too. You can't claim that the ATL prospects were "markedly better" as they are all still prospects and unproven (Feliz and Andrus specifically), which is the argument you used against the potential of Westmoreland and Kelly before, so it can't apply to Andrus and Feliz. Even then, you could argue that the extra half-year warrants sweetening the deal... Okay, add: Derrik Gibson (SS): A_ss (19) and Josh Reddick (22) or Ryan Kalish (21) or Che-Hsuan Lin (21). This could go on for a long, long time. Do you see where this is going Jacko? They could add high-upside prospects and not hurt the MLB club for a long time. Even if the 5 players listed above aren't quite the package that Texas got (which is debateable) there are PLENTY of players the Sox could add to sweeten it. This is without mentioning the possibility of just throwing Daniel Bard in there, or Tazawa, or any of the catching prospects. You really think the Sox can't put together a really nice package with Kelly and Westmoreland as the highest-upside pieces? Please... Just like Andrus and Feliz did, right? So they add MLB ready pieces (for SD MLB ready isn't the same as NYY or BOS ready) of which there are many (Wagner, Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa, etc.,). You will undoubtedly nitpick every example I throw out there, which would be an exercise in futility. The Sox could put together a package that blows away Gonzalez's WARP values by 2 or 3-fold without impacting their MLB roster and without losing ANYONE from the 2009 draft. I think the only question is whether Theo would want to give up both Kelly and Westmoreland. But, you know, I can't read his mind.

Your team lost and you dropped a World Series HR ball. For all Red Sox fans on this board that you regularly use to gloat and taunt other people may I formally say Boo. f***ing. Hoo.

For Hoyer this trade would basically be a draft. He can look at the Red Sox roster and pick virtually any prospects that he wants. Who would you ask for and in what order? I think a lot of teams would ask for Westmoreland and Kelly among that group, and one of the two of them first. You think I'm overvaluing them because I think they would the first ones requested in a trade despite not having played at a very high level. I think that's absurd. You can think of prospects you wouldn't have moved, even when they were 20 years old and when they hadn't played at the highest levels yet. You are making two different arguments at different times: 1. He's at such a low level that he won't be relevant for a few years, though he is good. 2. He's too young for anyone to have any faith that he'll be good at all. He didn't have 8 starts at High A because he was bad, he had them because the team is moving him through the levels just as they should. It doesn't mean he's going to be a bad player--it has no relevance to his actual value. He's progressing precisely according to plan for a 19 year old player with a $3m signing bonus. Age 19 Seasons: [table] player | Level | year | ERA | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB Phil Hughes | A-A_adv| 2005 | 2.19 | 16 | 86.1 | 54 | 1 | 20 | 93 | 0.857 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 4.65 Casey Kelly | A-A_adv | 2009 | 2.08 | 17 | 95.0 | 65 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 0.853 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 4.63 [/table] I would say those numbers are pretty similar. Hughes is one of the better pitching prospects in years. Kelly doesn't have to be one of the better pitching prospects in years to be a logical central piece in a deal, he just has to be potentially good. So he has no value? You know that's not true. I disagree. To Hoyer, Westmoreland or Kelly would be the center of the deal, and Anderson and Bowden "suffice for now talent". Without Kelly or Westmoreland the deal wouldn't happen, and they can't be replaced with "most" 19 or 20 year old prospects. They are both singular talents who stand out among their peers. That's why they got millions of dollars from a thorough team like the Red Sox. Their numbers have supported that decision, as has the Sox history of drafting and developing players. So no, the deal will not be "sold" as centered around one of those guys, but it will in actuality be centered around them, as they are the guys who it would be hardest for Theo to part with. I bet Bowden and Anderson would go really quickly.

Why would he want "now" talent if that talent is inferior? Why would Hoyer think that the basis of his team woudl be build on guys who would start producing next year, before the rest of his moves have a chance to start contributing? Hoyer is smart enough to have a 3 year plan and to build on what the team will look like in a few years. I bet that he was hired for that reason, because he has more Red Sox longterm-vision in him than Yankees win-nowness. Think about it. Theo will squirm if he has to give up Westmoreland and Kelly. I can assure you of that. If he gave up Westmoreland and Kelly and Bowden and Anderson he would squirm more. You undervalue some of these players and overvalue your own intellect. We will see what happens, and I expect the haul for Gonzalez to be very high. At the same time, I don't think the Sox will part with Buchholz so they will be giving up their next best pieces: Westmoreland and/or Kelly.

Yes, or like the Guardians refusing to part with Bartolo Colon for, I believe, a very young Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (and one other player) because they are too young to have an immediate impact. Looking back it is foolish. With forethought it is potentially the same situation.

Things only get "fun" when the Sox start leaking who they are going after and when their cards end up on the table. I hope that they are quiet about the big moves they want to make. As for Towers, I believe him and imagine that the best thing Hoyer could do would be to move AG for a huge haul. He shouldn't look at the Sox only and I don't expect that he will. However, I think the Sox could put together a really, really nice package for him. If they got anything including Kelly and Westmoreland they would be in great shape combined with the haul they got from ChiSox for Peavy. Those guys could be franchise-level talents. I know people will argue that they're too far down the line to be considered great prospects, but that's a shortsighted view. Any GM who turns down great (but young) talent for lesser (but older) talent shouldn't hold his job for very long. It is the job of the franchises to scout the players and to be able to discern the TRUE "projects to be like Grady Sizemore" from the "might project like Grady Sizemore" players. Those players DO exist, there's a crop of them with every draft class and I think the Sox have a couple really, really good young players. Also, if you have a moment go watch some of Adrian Gonzalez's clips on mlb.com. He's a beast who hits the ball with more ferocity than anyone on the Sox currently.

I will rest easy now...

Thanks! I'm not certain that the Mets finances are being fully taken into account, but I'll admit that it seems more likely for them to deal someone like Reyes than Beltran. I certainly wouldn't be angry at the Sox for looking at it nonetheless. Any team that tells other teams a player is absolutely unavailable, don't even talk about it, is going about it the wrong way. They should always listen, and just say no most of the time.

I'll take the above responses as a resounding "no" to my proposal that the Sox pursue Beltran if Bay/Holliday aren't easy signs, or perhaps instead regardless.

making stuff up? sources? which?

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20091025sox_hot_stove_fired_up_early/ Same article that a700 referenced at the beginning of the Ellsbury fielding thread. In it the idea was proposed that the Sox may be looking at trying to find a replacement for CF rather than for LF, especially if the options of Bay and Holliday appear untenable or simply too expensive. Interestingly, discussing the Bay situation in an interview on WEEI this week, Theo talked about the idea that the team that overpays gets the FA. He said they will certainly be trying to get him, but Bay can and will go and see what is available and that this only makes sense. At the same time they need to be prepared to go in other directions and move forward with their longterm plan. So, what of the idea of moving Ellsbury to LF and getting a CF? In the article the name that appears--and really the only one that makes a whole lot of sense--is Carlos Beltran. What of Carlos Beltran? CONTRACT: Age 33, 34 seasons. -$37m/2 yrs (18.5m) -full no-trade. -Fun Perk: "club agreed to lease ocular enhancer machine (device that throws numbered & multi-colored tennis balls at 150 mph)" -He costs more now than Jason Bay, but would become FA after 2011, same as JD Drew. Next year Theo would have Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett and Martinez coming off, the next ear Drew and Beltran. That will free up a lot of money during some decent free agency periods. Beltran had a bit of a down fielding season last year, but it was still better than his 2005 season, the first year that he came to NY. That tells me it isn't necessarily a factor of getting older. We know he was injured, which couldn't have helped. In any case, he measures out as a likely improvement over Ellsbury defensively in the short term, and a massive offensive improvement in CF. I think you could pencil him in for at least a 4.5 WAR, given his past 4 seasons of: 2006: 7.0 2007: 4.9 2008: 6.7 2009: 2.9 LF is where Ellsbury has had the most defensive impact in the past and it would greatly improve his worth to this team. He could compare favorably to a guy like Carl Crawford in a few years playing in left and an OF of Ellsbury, Beltran and Drew would be a great defensive outfield, at home or on the road. This seems like at least an obvious backup plan to the resign Bay/get Holliday options. I'm wondering if it would be a better primary plan. What would it take to get a guy like Beltran? I'm not sure. I don't think the conversation starts with Buchholz. It will need to be a nice package, but at that $$ and for only two seasons at his age, it wouldn't be an Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez type package. Just for fun, the lineup could look like: Ellsbury (L) Pedroia ® Martinez (S) Beltran (S) Youkilis ® Ortiz (L) Lowell ® Drew (L) Lowrie (S) I think it would make them a better road team and would avoid them needing to sell the farm to stay competitive the next few years. An interesting option, if he's available.

I have to believe that his health is likely to be better if the D-Backs are going to exercise the option at $8.5m. They're not a club that should be wasting money.

D-Backs picking up his $8.5m option for next year, so the point is moot. I still don't think $5m/yr is too much for him if they thought his health could come back around. I bet if the D-Backs had him for 3 x 5 they would be happy. WAR 06-09: Year Webb Beckett 2006 7.0 2.1 2007 6.9 6.5 2008 6.1 5.0 2009 -2.1 5.3 If it worked out you would have an ace on your staff for very little. If it didn't you're $5m down for 3 seasons, or roughly 4% of the team's payroll. Makes sense to me. Again, though, it is moot.

What if he does return to form? Obviously some front-end work would need to be done to see what his specific condition is and the chances of being healthy. I think the cost of a player in these situations should be directly proportional to the potential payoff of their full recovery. Brandon Webb healthy is one of the games best pitchers. I would argue that he's better than John Lackey, who will undoubtedly get 15m/yr for 4-5 years. I would prospose that 15m over 3 years for a guy like Webb wouldn't be absurd.

I would think that "discount" will still make him one of the highest paid players in the league. "Discount" in this sense would still need to be an enormous contract. Miguel Cabrera money is possible. Mauer at $18m and his age is still a tradeable entity. I agree with you about "massive" paycut. I don't think he would take a massive paycut. My guess is a 7 year/133m deal. I think the Twins will supplement it by trading either Nathan or Morneau for lots of high-upside young talent who they can supplement Mauer with. Opening a new stadium, good fanbase when they're competitive. Lots of reasons for the Twins to be aggressive in trying to sign Mauer. Also, I agree with Emmz that Mauer has the feeling of someone who will take less to stay with them. He's lived there his whole life, he's obviously comfortable with it and although he won't work for pennies on the dollar, I think he would take 88-cents on the dollar to not look like a money grubbing whore Yankee like A-Rod, Damon, Teixeira, CC, Burnett, Sheffield, Giambi, etc., He would still be very, very, very rich.