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By assuming worst case scenario I end up less disappointed. I bet I'm not the only Sox fan who does that re: the Yankees.

If this is the premise then I agree with you. I don't see the Yankees suddenly having a $185m payroll. If they do I'll be happy because it means the Sox likely get Holliday. I just don't see it happening. I think their payroll can comfortably be in the $200m-plus range given their revenue, so that isn't a huge factor. I don't get the sense that Yankee ownership or FO feel any pressure to reduce payroll (because, really, what is reducing it to 185 going to do for anti-Yankee PR anyway? "Now they're only spending 40m-more than the second highest team! Yay, equality!" No.) The Yankees don't and shouldn't care about that kind of PR. They have the money, they have the advantage, they will likely use it. I imagine John Lackey getting a Burnett-like deal and going to NY and the Yankees swooping in at the last minute to land Holliday to play LF. I wouldn't put it past them to ALSO land Roy Halladay. :dunno:

Scutaro had a 1.20 BB/K ratio last year, ranking him 6th overall, behind only Pujols, Pedroia, Y. Molina, Helton and Mauer. I don't think it's a tremendous signing, but I feel like it might be an under the radar good signing, especially given a pretty low price. Scutaro wanted to play for Boston and took less money to play there. He's probably worth what he'll make even with a career average year; if he plays like he did in 2009 he'll be a great signing. This is the most Bill Mueller-ish move in a few years IMO.

About Joba and Hughes, I pretty much agree that if they're going to suck the Yankees would be better off trading them. That's a no brainer. Of course if they're going to suck then the Blue Jays should seek something else. I imagine Joba getting fat and lazy if he gets traded from the Yankees to a 2nd tier team like Toronto.

That is an interesting article, although I laughed when I saw this framing sentence at the beginning: Seriously? Why even include the Mets and Red Sox in this discussion? Their FA spending isn't relevant to the rest of the discussion. It's just there to wrap Yankee fans in a nice, warm hug. "Just like the Yankees, the Mets and Red Sox have spent a shitload on FAs over the decade, they're the same." Why stop at the Red Sox, they're only $23m ahead of the Cubs, whereas the Yankees are more than double their nearest competitor. It's a weak opening point of an otherwise interesting article.

For anyone with a BP Subscription here's an interesting article from Joe Sheehan (12/03/09): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9819 A few quotes from a pretty long article: I pretty much agree with this. I waffle about whether I would give up Buchholz for Halladay, but this is really impacted by the suspicion (fear) that he ends up in NY. If he doesn't then I can understand why the Sox want to move forward pretty much intact prospect-wise.

Because the draft-pick loss is a part of the system, I think there are times that it is just inevitable. The alternative would be that the Sox just never sign another Type A, or avoid doing so at all costs, which I think they do already. In deals like this I think it was an unfortunate but necessary part of the deal. Scutaro isn't an exciting player but hopefully he either makes Lowrie expendable or combines with Lowrie to give the Sox production at SS that they haven't seen in awhile. 2 years simply isn't a painful commitment. Overall, I think this portends them signing other type As.

I just wonder what you're expecting out of the guy... Do you think the Red Sox believe he'll come in and be a big offesive contributer? I don't. I think they will expect him to play a steady SS without the predictable offensive woes of Alex Gonzalez and certainly MLB-caliber SS play defensively, for two years. They probably expect him to produce about 2 WAR per season (safely) if he plays every day. That's a conservative guess as it would be worse than either of his last two seasons. Anyone who thought that Alex Gonzalez hit admirably for the Red Sox in 2009 should be content with Scutaro's offensive production, even if he regresses toward career norms: 2009 Alex Gonzalez: .284/.316/.453/.769 Career Marco Scutaro: .265/.337/.409/.789 I thought Alex Gonzalez was useful enough offensively during his relatively successful 2009 campaign, but I didn't trust that it would last... neither did anyone else. With Scutaro, I think he's proven that he can get on base better than Gonzalez, and there's reason to think that Fenway will help his SLG and increase his offensive value over Gonzalez even more there. It isn't a great answer, but there clearly weren't a whole lot of options out there. Again, what it likely portends is the Sox being aggressive toward some other type A FAs so the draft pick isn't spent on Scutaro.

He's not in Jeter's class yet. Jeter is one of the greatest shortstops of all time. Pedroia isn't yet at the point of being considered one of the best second basemen of all time. Jeter had played in 480 G after his age 24 season. Pedroia has played in 481 through age 25. Here are their numbers through that time (per-162) [Table] NAME | G | AB | H | R | SB | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS + | WARP3 (BP) JETER | 480 | 646 | (199) | (119) | (23) |(14) | (81) | .308 | .373 | .437 | .809 | 109 | 13.9 PEDROIA | 481 | 636 | (195) | (109) | (16) | (14) | (71) | .307 | .370 | .455 | .825 | 111 | 17.7 [/table] I'd say these numbers show that Pedroia is off to a very good start. Whether he will be as good as Jeter is impossible to tell. There's plenty of room for Pedroia to be a hall of famer without ever having the iconic clout that Jeter does. Different players, different teams, different positions.

Let's hope Soriano or Gonzalez come to Boston next year. ATL let two of their best go and got two of the Sox better relievers. I think both would be nice, actually.

I'm not at all excited about this move, but Scutaro is roughly the player I hoped Lowrie could be in 2010 and 2011. If it's 2 years and $10-$12m total it is a pretty insignificant move in terms of longterm flexability. Also, this leads me to believe that they will be signing another FA, hopefully pushing hard for Holliday. I don't hate Scutaro as the #9 hitter on this club. I'm not excited about it, but I don't think it will be the albatross of a contract like Lugo and Renteria were.

The funny thing about this board is that when people disagree about one player vs. another the lesser player is always painted as virtually ineffective. Do you really believe Chone Figgins woudl be a BAD pickup for this team? I think he would be a great addition. I agree about the length and cost and that his cost will likely overvalue him, but all things being equal I'd prefer Figgins over Beltre. All things not being equal I think there are good arguments for Beltre, or neither.

Bay going to the M's would net the Sox an even better pick than Wagner did. That said I have a feeling the Sox prefer to have Holliday anyway. My money is on the Yankees swooping in and getting Holliday, the fans here screaming about the Sox not willing to pay him $21.5m/yr (stopping at $20m, say) and then us talking about it for the next 12 months. If the Yankees aren't interested in Holliday then my money is on the Sox getting him. I don't think he's good enough to warrant them getting into a bidding war with NYY for his servicers.

Unfortunately I thnk you're right. It really feels lke the Santana situation all over again. Halladay going elsewhere would be okay, Hallady going to the Red Sox would be okay. Halladay going to NY with the Yankees would be very hard for the Sox to overcome, even if they acquired a guy like Mauer for 2011. Wth Teixera, A-Rod, CC and Halladay it would be an enormous hill to climb. The saving grace--to me at least--is that however much the Jays are reluctant to deal their ace to the Red Sox, I'm sure they're at least as reluctant to deal to the Yankees... probably even more-so. If I'm the Sox I make a strong offer for Halladay. If it seems like the idea of Toronto dealing in the division is reasonable, then they have to make the deal. It it appears that TOR is overvaluing him within the division then let it go. If the Yankees really want to deal something like Hughes, Jackson and Montero for Halladay that's not something the Sox could or would easily match. Underlying all of this is the fact that 2011 is a better FA class. How much would Theo be willing to hold his cards for the next class with guys like Crawford, Halladay, Lee, Mauer and Werth all available?

It probably doesn't matter which of these guys we prefer. I'd be shocked if the Sox were really seeking an older 2B. I too think if they were going that direction they should probably look at Figgins. He's a better 3B, but he could shift after Lowell leaves... or they could just get him for 3B. I don't love the cost, but for extra versatility over the length of the contract I think he would be a useful guy to have on the roster.

So how do you explain his 3.1 WAR, which is higher than every season of Hudson's except one, since 2005? I agree about the age, but it isn't like Hudson is overly young. He's about to be 32. I'd be okay with either (again, given the necessity of having Pedroia move) but I see Polanco having outproduced Hudson pretty consistently, even through Hudson's prime years. 2 years for either is about as long as I'm comfortable with.

I don't dislike the idea of Polanco, probably more than Hudson. [Table] WAR (age) | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | POLANCO | 5.2 (29) | 1.2 (30) | 5.3 (31) | 3.1 (32) | 3.1 (33) HUDSON | 2.2 (27) | 2.6 (28) | 3.3 (29) | 2.0 (30) | 2.9 (31) [/table] They both have career .348 OBPs, and their OPS is similar (Hudson: .778; Polanco: .761). Polanco is considerably better per-UZR/150 at 2B, both season-to-season, and career (10.0 vs. 2.7). I guess I have a hard time understanding the anti-Polanco views here. Per-Fangraphs Polanco has been more valuable for at least the last 3 years (I stopped looking at 3), and Hudson has been the more expensive player $$-wise. If the situation is such that Pedroia needs to move to SS, I would have little problem with Polanco batting 9th, especially if he wants to play in Boston and will sign a reasonable deal (2 years/$10m).

God no. Remember, they also paid Wagner a fair amount to come to them too, so it was all of those trades PLUS the money they spent for Wagner to get a 1st round pick. That said, the #20 pick is a good one to have and I think there's reason to think that the Sox potentially having multiple 1st round picks bodes well for the future of the club.

They actually spun Arroyo into WMP into Carter into Wagner into #20 pick. That seems like a decent progression to me. With the way the Sox tend to draft I would trade Arroyo for a 1st round pick just about every time.

I would guess that he has a number of scenarios in mind. These likely include verious possibilities about the SS position and are dependant on how the market plays out. It is possible that they won't get anyone for SS and will prefer to look at getting another 2B if those options are better. I think that would be last on his list, behind players like Hanley Ramirez and even Marco Scutaro, but at the end of the offseason decent 2B might be undervalued. If they really think Pedroia can man SS then that opens a lot of possibilities for them moving forward. I don't think he would be ideal, but with the right 2B it could work out.

Not when you look at how the other large-market teams are operating and who is having success and who is not. Are the Angels, Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox all making a mistake generally holding onto their prospects rather than trading them? What about the Red Sox makes you think they are more Yankee than they are Angel or Philly? Actually, don't answer that. I know your answer already, as this is the bazillionith time we've discussed this topic.

I don't know. I've been pretty consistent about being willing to move Buchholz for Halladay, if Halladay can be resigned. I'm also a consistent opponent of new threads about old topics.

Why wouldn't you trade Hughes AND Joba, if they're just average young pitchers? My hangup is if the Jays are starting with Buchholz and adding 3 other prospects. I think straight-up Halladay for Buchholz benefits Toronto longterm (WAR/$$-wise), so anything on top of that is gravy. I assume that's why you wouldn't trade both either.