I haven't thought they would win the division for a few weeks. They just aren't playing too well, and the Rays have a much easier schedule. But if they win the wild card, they'd go up against Minnesota, not Texas.
As for a playoff spot, I'm just worried that the Red Sox manage to stay alive till next weekend. If that happens all bets are off. The pitching match-ups heavily favor the Sox the rest of the weekend, and they'd give themselves a chance if they could pull off a sweep.
Next week the Yankees have three games at Toronto, while the Red Sox have four games at Chicago. That's seven total games, and if the Red Sox sweep this weekend, they would need five of them to go their way to stay alive into next weekend. That's possible. If the Red Sox win the next two games, I'll be concerned.
Also, Girardi is asking for trouble by not pushing Hughes on Sunday, and by possibly limiting CC to one start the rest of the year.