elsrbueno

I think that's the only appropriate job for him at this point. He hit .170 against righties, and .270 against lefties. He's not a centerfielder by trade, so playing him every day makes no sense (especially given the fact that he sucks against righties, and righties are the vast majority of MLB pitchers). I was looking foward to seeing Marte as a 25th man (and potentially in the outfield), but with the bench absolutely loaded right now Marte would probably have to be traded to start the season in the majors.

I haven't seen this signing on anywhere. Does anyone have a source on this? If signed, Dustin Mohr is pretty much a 4th outfielder candidate. He played all 3 outfield positions last year in Colorado and is best suited to platoon with Nixon-- if he makes the team I have no doubt that will be his job. When I saw this thread my first question was: "Can he play center?" and the answer to that question is probably not. He only played 10 games in center last year and throughout his career he's played it sparingly.

I apologize for the double post. Since when does hitting make you a "ballplayer?" There's a reason why guys like David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez (The Seattle 3B/DH, NOT the Red Sox prospect) don't get the respect they deserve when it comes to MVP voting... because hitting isn't all there is to baseball. As a matter of fact, preventing runs (IMO) is more important than scoring runs. So saying someone "sucks as a ballplayer" because he "can't hit" just doesn't agree with me. Second, I have below the numbers for Alex Cora in his BEST season: .264 .364 .380. That's his CAREER year mind you. Alex Gonzalez last year: .264/.319/.368 IN A DOWN YEAR. In Alex Cora's career year, he hit 9 doubles. Really the difference between Gonzalez and Cora OFFENSIVELY is that Cora's more patient. As far as offensive potential is concerned, I'd take Gonzalez' 30 doubles/10 homers/70 RBI over Cora's 20doubles/6 homers 40 RBIs any day of the week. Then you throw gold glove caliber defense on top of that and I'd say Gonzo is a big upgrade over Cora as an everyday shortstop.

SITN-- I agree with you 100%. We're not talking about dumping $20 million on Manny v2 here. Alex Gonzalez is a GOLD GLOVE caliber shortstop. He's one of the best defensive players at shortstop, one of the most important defensive positions. Adding him for $5 million/year is absolutely worth it IMO. I'll agree that his bat is inconsistent at best, but look at his line last year in an off year: .264/.319/.368. Not great, playing half his games in Florida, one of the worst hitters' parks in baseball, has to contribute to that. Plus, compare that line to what another shortstop who was absolutely BELOVED in Boston did last year: .257/.309/.365 Hmm.... that "other" shortstop, who's name is Orlando Cabrera, is being paid $8 million a year. While he's exciting to watch, his defense isn't even close to Alex Gonzalez'. I loved Orlando Cabrera and if you look back at my pre-2005 posts I was dissapointed to see him leave as I'm sure quite a few of us were-- but Alex Gonzalez is arguably a better player, for less money.... Plus, a 2 year commitment means even if he does suck he's not a drag on your payroll....

I absolutely think Gonzalez is a better solution than Julio Lugo. Similar range, and Gonzalez makes more plays. Pokey was flat-out amazing with what he could do on the field, and I haven't seen a lot of Alex Gonzalez, but if he can come close to Pokey's glove and hit .270 with 10ish homers and 70 RBI he'll be a great pickup. And I don't think, in this lineup, those are unreasonable expectations. On the Coco Crisp front, he's a guy I'd LOVE to have. Giving up Andy Marte might be something we'd have to swallow hard and suck it up to get him, and I'm OK with that because Coco is 26, and is already a dynamic player. Judging by the Cleveland fans' reaction, he's a guy Boston players are going to LOVE. It's when people start talking about Shoppach, Delcarmen, AND Marte for Crisp, Bard, and Riske that I start to wonder if it's worth it. IF rumors are true, and Austin Kearns could be had for Matt Clement, I say the Red Sox get that done. I'd imagine the Red Sox might even be able to bleed the Reds of a little bit more considering the exceedingly high cost of pitching this winter. Austin Kearns or Willy Mo Pena (who I read the Reds were MORE interested in trading) and a prospect for Clement is a great trade for the Red Sox. Trading from depth to get a right handed hitting outfielder with some pop. This gives the Red Sox some serious negociating ability IMO, because NOW they have some options. Trot Nixon could be used in a potential deal with Seattle for Jeremy Reed, or in any deal for a young CF. I don't know why people are so low on Austin Kearns. He hit 25 homers last year (combined AAA and MLB) and is just 25 years old. His defense, while not stellar, is servicable. We'd still need a leadoff hitter but we could offer Kearns to the Guardians for Crisp straight up, and if they decline we still still have the option of trading Marte if we so choose. In the ideal world Crisp could come to Boston without having dealt Andy Marte, and the Clement deal seems like the one that is MUTUALLY beneficial to all 3 teams. The Reds get the top-end pitcher they desire, the Guardians get a young power bat who can contribute NOW (without trading extra pieces in addition to Crisp), and the Sox get a leadoff hitter. If Cleveland balks though I'd persue Kearns for Clement in a separate deal. Am I the only one who's exceedingly confident that with Theo back at the helm the Red Sox will make the RIGHT decision?

If this trade can happen, this trade SHOULD happen. I assume by Phillies you mean Reds..... but the Red Sox getting Crisp, Riske, and Bard for Clement and Shoppach is a great trade. Start talking Delcarmen and I start backing down-- I don't want to give him up in THIS TRADE-- but getting Coco without giving up Marte would be a major plus. With Willie Harris the potential 25th man, if the Sox CAN get a centerfielder without giving up Marte, I predict Marte will come to spring training as the 4th outfielder. No, he hasn't done it before, but it stands to reason since they've asked him if he'd play those positions, and they've said before that they want to try to get his bat in the lineup any way possible. He's probably not a candidate to play center, but Harris could do that if necessary. For what it's worth, I agree with you. Crisp is a good player but IMO he's not worth reported package and if Cleveland starts throwing names like Delcarmen into the mix I say no way. The asking price is too high. Getting Matos gives us less demand IF Cleveland buys that we're willing to give him the everyday job, and I've got my doubts that the Sox brass would do that. If I'm Shapiro, I stand my ground. I call the Sox' bluff and say: "Fine, we'll keep Coco." It's pretty much a game at this point, and I still think the Guardians have the upper hand though because Matos is hardly Coco Crisp.

Luis Matos would be an option as a 4th outfielder regardless of whether or not the Sox acquire Coco Crisp. I don't see why the Sox couldn't make both moves. With Alex Cora on the team and Alex Gonzalez (supposedly) on the way, Graffanino has no place. Matos, on the other hand, a good defensive outfielder with at least some offensive potential-- is the kind of player the Sox need right now as their 4th outfielder.

elsrbueno dice: no me gusta. Despite assertions from somebody else (who I can't remember) who said Jacobs field is a pitchers' park, according to Park Factor (see ESPN link in terms and definitions), it one of the better hitters' parks in baseball. I'm a big fan of Coco Crisp, but I think the Sox are giving up too much for too little in this trade.

I don't know if this belongs here or not, if it doesn't I apologize ahead of time and please move it to the appropriate place. From ESPN: Park factor: Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) * Teams with home games in multiple stadiums list aggregate Park Factors. Here's the link. It also shows all of the different park factors around baseball. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

YES. The more I think about it, the more I love the idea of Alex Gonzalez in Boston. His bat is inconsistent, but he's a gold glove caliber shortstop and this isn't exactly Pokey Reese with the bat (don't get me wrong, I loved Pokey, but the man just isn't a good hitter). The guy hit 20 homers a couple years back. He's 28 which means he's just entering his prime, and while his .264./.319/.368 line wasn't great, he'd certainly be helped out by being in a better park, surrounded by better hitters. I don't think a .270 average with 10 homers and 65-70 RBIs is out of the question, and oops-- you've got Edgar's 2005 offense with gold glove defense-- for half the price. These should be two separate threads, but the more I think about the Cleveland trade the less I like it. I'd love to have Coco Crisp, if the Red Sox truly are giving up Kelly Shoppach, Guillermo Mota, and Andy Marte they better be getting back a better package. Depending on who you read (Some sources say Manny Delcarmen could be involved), the package seems more or less desirable. Mota + Marte for Crisp alone is far far too much. I have got to think that if the rumored deal goes down the Red Sox are getting killed. I don't know anything about Josh Bard's defense, but Kelly Shoppach is supposed to be an excellent defender and he would probably better Bard's production right away in the big leagues. Riske for Mota-- the Red Sox have the advantage here. Mota is 32 years old and has had 2 great seasons. Riske is 28, and has had 3 consecutive decent seasons including the very good WHIP and decent strikeout ratings. He could be Mike Timlin's replacement down the road. Crisp for Marte-- I happen to believe that Andy Marte is ready to contribute right now, and that his powerful righthanded bat off the bench would be invaluable to the Red Sox. With some work in spring training, he could learn to play first and the corner outfield positions, and get 250-300 ABS with 15ish homers and a good on base percentage. Coco Crisp on the other hand would fill the immediate need for leadoff hitter in Boston and with his mix of speed/power and decent defense in center. He's a guy I'd love to have so I'm torn here. Marte with his 40 homer potential (especially in Boston) is certainly a hard player to give up. I will reserve official judgement on any Crisp trade until the real details are determined, but right now with the rumor being Shoppach, Mota, and Marte for Bard, Riske, and Crisp-- I think it's a bad trade for the Red Sox.

I was one of Wade Miller's biggest supporters last season, and it's dissapointing that the Sox didn't give him another shot. at $1 mil/season he could have been a perfect insurance policy and given the team even more depth and a shot to trade a few starters. Wade Miller if he can regain his health is a #3 starter in Chicago-- but that remains a big IF at this point.

I think we all loved Pedro Martinez. There was something about Pedro taking the mound that made us all confident that we'd win that day. Just having him out there on the mound was an amazing feeling. That having been said, and something that ORS has said repetedly that I don't think you're seeing a700hitter, is that the Red Sox have pledged to maintain two things that the two teams fron New York haven't: Physcal sanity and a modest budget. I understand that as a fan it's hard to swallow, especially because ticket prices continue to rise, but this is something that comes into play with all of the players you've argued for keeping the past couple years. The Red Sox have maintained (and I completely agree, as I think ORS will too) that to maintain a reasonable budget AND stay competitive, you very simply can't dump large portions of money on any one player, EVEN IF THAT PLAYER IS PRODUCTIVE. This is an extreme case, but look at A-Rod in Texas. His contract sold tickets, but it crippled their finances and they weren't able to bring in enough supporting players to win. He left, and they instantly came back to respectability. Pedro Martinez was in Boston for years and when did he finally help us win the ultimate prize? When he had a tremendous supporting cast. Schilling, Lowe, Foulke, Timlin, even Embree contributed largely to not only the regular season success, but also in the playoffs too. 3 years of Pedro's 2005 season would be nice, but think of how the 4th year would impact the team if he wasn't effective, which the Red Sox obviously thought there was a good chance of that happening. They'd be handcuffed by his $13 million dollars and wouldn't be able to add talent to support him. I believe it's a major reason why Damon's not here as well. The Red Sox didn't want to put THAT much money into ONE PLAYER. It's another reason why they've tried so hard to move Manny Ramirez.

I think the Orioles got robbed in this deal. Benson for Julio and Maine? John Maine is a young power arm who hasn't done much at the majors yet, but at 24 has shown some promise. He had a pretty good 7.78 K/9 in AAA and really has just 43 innings at the Major League level. He broke into the league in (IMO) the most talented division in baseball, pitching in a pitchers' park. Jorge Julio is not dominant, but still had a 7.28 K/9 and at 27 is still considered on the upswing of his career. He needs to work on his control sure, but getting out of Camden Yards and the AL East will certainly HELP him. Kris Benson on the other hand, pitching in a weak division and a pitcher's park, had a 4.13 ERA and a 4.90 K/9 ratio. John Maine in his limited work had a higher ratio than that (5.40). In my mind, it stands to reason that in 2006 John Maine and Jorge Julio will both get BETTER in their new environments. Better parks, weaker competition, no DH being the primary factors. On the flip side, Kris Benson should get worse as a result of the very same factors. If the Orioles offered me John Maine for Kris Benson straight up I'd think long and hard about it. Adding a power arm like Julio only seals the deal. GREAT trade for the Mets IMO-- and who says Maine can't compete for the #5 spot in the rotation out of spring training?

While I agree that his strikeouts aren't his biggest problem, he doesn't strike out "a lot less" than other power hitters who hit 30-ish homers, but he's about average in that respect. His on base percentage frankly scares me, if you compare him to players in his power bracket (30-40 homers), he's at least 50 points lower on base-wise than anyone else on that list. Granted, for a second baseman he's an offensive powerhouse and a 30-30 threat. I'm one of the few statheads on this site who actually LIKE Soriano (most guys would sooner throw him off a bridge) but if you consider that he was just 27 last year (just turned 28) the fact that he's fast AND just now entering his prime years in intreaguing. A few things to note: His .972 fielding percentage was WORST among regular second baseman. His range factor (4.88) and zone rating (.810) are both below the median. I am willing to excuse lower fielding percentages if it's a player who gets to more balls-- but really based on these numbers prove that's just not the case. Granted last year Mark Loretta (.987/4.58/.818) wasn't a whole lot better at getting to balls, but he caught a LOT bigger percentage of them when he DID get there. If you consider that Loretta was bothered by injuries last year and take 2004 as a defensive sample, he was significantly better defensively than Alfonso: (.987/4.97/.832) Last I heard, the Washington Nationals were asking for a ton for Soriano. Another thing to consider. If he could be acquired cheaply, I'd take Soriano and throw him in centerfield because that's probably a much better position for him. However, since he's flat-out refused to play the outfield, I don't see him having a position with the Red Sox.

Talent wise, that makes a lot of sense. The Red Sox would take a huge PR hit trading Arroyo though-- especially since he just came out and said how he wants to be in Boston his whole career. I agree about Griffey though. Cincinnati's got to take some of the risk out of it by picking up a big portion of Griffey's salary before this deal is considered. EDIT:In the ideal world Wells either goes to Seattle for Reed, or goes somewhere else (San Fransisco, LA, Anaheim, San Diego, Arizona) in a 3-way where we get Reed. Second choice: Clement for Reed. Third Choice: Arroyo for Reed.

He's got a point. Davanon had OBPs of .347 and .372 the last two years-- albeit in limited playing time, but he also stole 29 bases combined. Is he Johnny Damon? No-- but if was in Boston he'd be a legitimate leadoff candidate. Mark Loretta's OBPs (last two years): .360 and .390

Yes, yes, yes, and yes. That's a positive spin on things, but yes, all of those things are positive. Alex Cora should be as good if not better than Renteria defensively, and while he isn't the same player offensively, can come pretty close to matching Edgar's 2005 stats without the RBIs (because he won't be batting second). It's almost impossible to downgrade from Millar's 05 season-- Youk/Snow will be better on BOTH offense and defense than Millar. As much as I loved Bill Mueller, you're right there, too. Players are allowed to have 1 bad year, and even if Lowell doesn't regain his 2003-2004 form, he should be as good as Mueller offensively. Defensively, the gold glove speaks for itself. The bullpen is deeper, stronger, and better. Foulke can't be much worse than he was in 2005, Timlin is Timlin, and Mota/Tavarez/Seanez will be better than Mantei/Embree/Neal. The one thing the bullpen lacks is a good lefty, but DiNardo and Alvarez will probably compete for that job. Not to mention Delcarmen and Hansen are waiting in the wings and that much closer to helping the team. The bullpen is a STRENGTH. Also, the rotation will be stronger. Assuming Wakefield, Arroyo, and Clement match their 2005 numbers, Schilling will be better than 2005 based solely on the fact that he's HEALTHY and Beckett will be better than Wells. You forgot to mention second base. A full season of Mark Loretta will be an improvement over Mark Bellhorn. There are holes to fill, namely centerfield and outfielder # 4, but the Red Sox are hardly the 97 Marlins or anything close to it.

I have to believe that Andy Marte and a bullpen guy (probably Mota) are going to Cleveland at least. Of course Crisp is coming to Boston, but what makes sense? We've already discussed Jhonny Peralta and if the Sox could get him and Crisp in a Marte deal without giving up Lester or Papelbon they'd obviously be stealing from the Guardians. Brandon Phillips? His stock seems to have plumeted and he's at the age where he really should be ready for the big leagues (24) but struggled at AAA. I like Crisp and he seems like one of the best options out there for center, but it'd be real hard to trade Marte for him. Andy's 4 years younger and is probably ready for the bigs right now, and as a right handed hitter with some pop he's got a ton of value in my book. It will be interesting to see what develops. Obviously a Marte for Crisp deal helps us out in the short term, but long term with no real 3B of the future and Lowell coming off a down year, is that a smart choice? offense is so much harder to find at third than it is in the outfield, and if Marte can live up to his potential he'd be an amazing cornerstone. Really I see Andy Marte as a solution RIGHT NOW if Lowell or Youkilis get hurt as a right handed bat....

Just one thought, actually. NO. The only thing you said that I agreed with was that Soriano can run. He's faster than most of the players on the Red Sox' team. Some other things you said that I disagree with: 1. That we have a gaping whole at second base. Like ORS said, we have 2 second baseman in Graffanino and Loretta, PLUS Pedroia and even Alex Cora (if a shortstop is acquired). We're all set at second. 2. Soriano worth $12 million? No thanks. 3. Pokey Reese just signed a 1-year deal with Florida, which means he can't be traded until mid-season anyway.... and even if he could be acquired, is he a better solution than Alex Cora?

What he said-- sorry I used the wrong word.... but my point stands-- I don't think it would take a lot of talent (and by that I mean the likes of Marte/Lester/Papelbon) to part with Griffey.

The Reds actually completed a trade a few years ago sending Griffey to San Diego for Phil Nevin. I don't think their demands are too high.

A package centered around Matt Clement and Ken Griffey JR is very intreaguing. The beauty of bringing Griffey to Boston is that he has that option of DHing or playing in left field at Fenway which would get a chance to rest his legs. I don't think he's the #1 solution and I'd be weary putting faith on Ken as my everyday guy in center. I'm just throwing out ideas here, but what about Matt Clement and Trot Nixon for Ken Griffey JR and Felipe Lopez? Lopez could cover shortstop and is young. in Griffey for Nixon the Sox and Reds trade injury prone stars, but the Reds pick up a decent pitcher who's already familiar with the NL Central. Money wise I think it works out. Ken Griffey's due about $12 million for 3 more years and Lopez was paid Nixon makes (I think) $7.5 mil and Clement's average is about $8 mil a year. The Reds come out with a little bit more money in the short term but Trot Nixon is only signed for 1 more year and the Red Sox would be stuck with Griffey for 3. This would still leave a whole in the lineup because if the Red Sox still need a right fielder, but it would cover shortstop and center and the Sox would still have Wells as trade bait.

I honestly think we've seen the best of Bronson Arroyo. He's a back end of the rotation guy but for what he brings to the table $4 million per isn't that bad. He's proven himself in the AL East and like others have said he's a battler. He's obviously not as talented as a guy like Clement, but honestly, who'd you rather have out there in a must win game, Clement or Arroyo? I'd take Bronson hands down. He just seems to have a better mentality for succeeding in a place like Boston. The Red Sox would definately look very very bad trading Arroyo now that he's come out and said he signed a long-term deal because he loved Boston, and honestly the last thing the Red Sox need right now is a PR hit. If I'm the Red Sox, I do my best to turn Wells and Clement into a centerfielder (and maybe a shortstop). If Wells can go to Arizona for a couple youngters who then can be packaged with Clement to Seattle for Reed or to Cleveland for Crisp, that would work. A rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Arroyo, Papelbon is still pretty solid, and the bullpen is very deep. If the Sox have more takers for Mota than they do for Clement, I say keep Clement as the #5 and put Papelbon in the bullpen. With Schilling and Beckett questionable because of injury, having Papelbon as the #6 man certainly has merits.

Nobody REALLY knows what's going on (except the real insiders who don't go blathering to reporters usually) but my guess is that the right deal hasn't come along yet. Teams like the Devil Rays have ALWAYS asked for too much, which is why they don't make a lot of trades. Lugo and Gathright, a couple guys who would seem to make sense for the Red Sox, are commanding way too much talent from the Devil Rays so the Red Sox moved on. If talks with Seattle started with Lester or Papelbon, they probably stopped there. Keep in mind that the Red Sox supposedly balked at trading Lester for Johnson a few years ago, and again when the Beckett talks came about. Papelbon is going to be on the team THIS YEAR, and Lester's not far off. My guess is that teams are simply asking for too much for their guys. The Red Sox are obviously trying to hold out for the right solution, not the quick solution. As far as giving the young guys a shot.... I see it obviously with first base (where Youk will be starting) and MAYBE shortstop (if Pedroia impresses in spring training), but I seriously doubt our starting centerfielder this season will be any one of the following: Ellbury, Murphy, Stern. I think the team sees Alex Cora as a capable shortstop for the short term, but they've got to be looking to at least add a centerfielder who's capable of playing every day.

I agree. The Cardinals are not a rebuilding team, they are very competitive still and with a ton of vets I see them trying to stay that way and win with the guys they've got. Rolen, Edmonds, Pujols, etc. I'd be shocked if the Cardinals traded Edmonds. Their pitching staff is good enough with their offense to win the central, and even their backend guys like Suppan and Marquis have been just as good as a Matt Clement in the playoffs.... the only way I see anything working is if the Cardinals were interested in Wells, but the Red Sox would need to give up more than that to get Edmonds.