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This gives the US an even stronger team. Having A-Rod makes that team better, no doubt about it. Having a World Baseball Classic without Cuba would be a joke. I really hope they iron out their difficulties and get them into the tournament.

overall I think the US has the most talented team. I don't think anyone can debate the top offensive team-- the Dominican just dominates there. Pitching wise the Dominicans and Venezuelans are loaded at the top (Martinez and Colon for DR, Santana, Garcia, and Zambrano for Venezuela) but keep this in mind: In round 1, pitchers will be on a pitch count of 60 In round 2, pitchers will be on a pitch count of 75 In round 3, pitchers will be on a pitch count of 95 That means until round 3 DEPTH is going to dictate who goes on. So teams who have a few dominant starters but no depth are going to suffer. In a short series, with all players 100% ready, it'd be hard to bet against Venezuela based solely on the fact that they've got 3 amazing starters and an amazing closer (K-Rod).... The U.S. is the deepest team-- they've got the best chance of any to reach the final round, and once they get there they're going to be hard to beat.

I'd doubt the Cleveland Guardians would be interested Wells at this point but a Clement, Mota, and Marte deal would work (IMO) for both sides. If The Red Sox then keep Wells in the rotation, their bullpen should be deep enough. They'd have Papelbon and Arroyo fighting for the #5 spot and whoever doesn't get that job is in the bullpen. (Tavarez, Seanez, Timlin, Foulke, Arroyo/Pap + Hansen/Delcarmen/DiNardo/Alvarez/Van Buren/Vermilyea) Keep in mind that Vermilyea has to stay with the big club or else we lose him, and if the Sox decide in spring training to give him a roster spot there would very simply be too many arms (without having made a trade) that are MLB caliber: Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Wells, Clement, Arroyo, Papelbon, Mota, Seanez, Timlin, Tavarez, Foulke. That's 12 arms without Vermilyea. They should carry 11 at most (IMO) which means it makes sense to trade 2 arms. You lose Marte, think about what you're getting. A 23 year old shortstop who's proven his power at the major league level and a 26 year old potential all star centerfielder. I understand that your idea is speculative-- but if the Red Sox could get this done-- they should definately do it. I can see from the Guardians' angle why they might do it, because they could 2 good arms to their staff, but this would significantly weaken their offense and without Peralta they'd have Brandon Phillips and Ramon Vazquez as options at shortstop.... so I can easily them simply telling the Red Sox no on this deal, too.

It's pretty funny that you insulted a player who doesn't exist.

In all fairness some trades DO come out of nowhere. Josh Beckett was going to Texas right up until the Red Sox snagged him up. That having been said, they seem too wishy washy on their trades and I never really trust a paper (even if it's ESPN or whatever) when they say "an insider," or "a person close to negociations." Jeremy Reed and a prospect for Mota and Arroyo would be acceptable IMO if the prospect was pretty good. Again, I've mentioned that the Mariners have 2 shortstop prospects and I'd love it if the Sox could get their hands on Jose Lopez (who is younger and more advanced than Hanley Ramirez). Over the last 3 years, Not surprisingly, Bronson Arroyo is 14-10 (34 games, 31 starts) with a 3.48 ERA away from Fenway Park. For a guy who doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, he will depend a lot on his defense and also his park plays a big factor. He was 10-9 with a 4.91 ERA (39 games, 30 starts) at Fenway in that span. If Bronson put up his road-like numbers in 2006 for Seattle, he'd be better than ANY starter they had in 2005 (well, Felix Hernandez was very impressive but of any pitcher with 20 or more starts). Even with his 2005 numbers including Fenway, Bronson would be a #2 or #3 in Seattle. I don't think Arroyo and Mota for Lopez and Reed is that far off base, and it seems to make sense for both clubs. The Yankee/Met rumor though? Far fetched IMO to say the least. These teams don't have a big history of helping each other out and I seriously doubt George Steinbrenner would green light a trade where he traded one of his top hitters for a prospect and a pitcher who'd get LIT UP in the AL East (Benson).

Bill Hall's 2005: .291/.342/.495 Johnny Damon's 2005: .316/.366/.439 Johnny Damon in 2005 away from Fenway Park: .298 .342 .438 Bill Hall was also MUCH MUCH better at home so predicting a steep incline in his numbers is probably not appropriate (he was .271/.337/.413 on the road) Obviously though playing his home games at Fenway you'd expect Hall could match his 2005 overall season numbers and at 26 he's a player on the rise. I would be thrilled if the Sox could get Bill Hall. He's 26, he's a 20/20 threat right now, he's cheap, he's versatile (can play third, short, and second). To me, it's a great depth guy as insurance for Lorreta or Lowell (in case of injury) and he could if nobody else was acquired start at shortstop and be a pretty darn good player. Back in the days when Lyle Overbay was a candidate to join the Red Sox, there was talk about Matt Clement. If we could get Bill Hall and an arm (Jose Capellan perhaps) for Matt Clement and cash I'd say jump all over it.

Does Carl Pavano and Tony Armas for Pedro Martinez ring a bell? Do the names Brian Rose and Juan Pena ring bells? Those are just the names that come off the top of my head. For every Jeff Bagwell or Curt Schilling trade there's at least one trade that makes absolute sense and trading young (unproven) guys doesn't kill you. Like I said earlier in this thread a blanket "don't trade young guys" statement doesn't really work. As far as Barry Zito goes, I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Papelbon is just as good as him this year, and there's a pretty good chance Jon Lester is as good in a couple years. With 7 starters (counting Papelbon) on the club already, it wouldn't make sense to me to trade for Zito.... The fact that he sucks against all the AL East teams (Baltimore, NY, Tampa, and Boston) is certainly an unsettling fact.

Really good point Plump and SFOC. It seems that if the Red Sox could get something done involving Arroyo and Read it'd already be done. Reed is not worth giving up Lester or Papelbon for, but what are our other options? Jacoby needs more time (IMO), plenty of players dominate the New York Penn League. I've got a hometown team from that league and it's almost always guys just out of college. Frankly I would have been a bit dissapointed if he didn't dominate down there. It would be ideal to start him in Portland and see how he does. David Murphy really JUST started hitting in the minor leagues. He was drafted in 2003, he had some injury issues in 2004, so this was really his first full professional season. I'd advance him to AAA with caution, but I'd have a real hard time believing he could produce as a full time big leaguer. Adam Stern is another guy who really hasn't done much above AA. He's got pretty good potential to become a Dave Roberts kind of guy, but again his offensive production would suffer. Any one of these 3 would be able to play great defense in centerfield, and if we didn't already have weak hitting players at shortstop and first base, I'd be a little more receptive to the idea of an all-field, no hit centerfielder. If the price for Reed doesn't come down to something reasonable the Red Sox will probably be faced with having a battle in spring training. As things currently stand, who's the team's 4th outfielder? Brandon Moss? Someone from outside the organization has got to be brought in. Here's MLB's list of free agents: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2005/free_agent_tracker.jsp?fastatus=unsigned&subscope=pos&teamPosCode=O None of these guys are everyday players, which leads me to believe some trade has to happen to bring in a right handed hitting outfielder. It looks like if Payton can be had for Wells that might be the best available option for us.

As potentially the biggest Millar hater in the history of Talksox, I feel I must chime in here. Kevin Millar in his best season was a .276 hitter with 25 homers and 96 RBI. He had 1 good year in Florida that rivaled his top year in Boston, but at best he's a below average offensive first baseman. Last year was so very bad that Kevin Millar was among the worst first baseman on BOTH sides of the baseball. He was easily bottom 5 among regulars both with the bat and the glove. His clownish attitude was OK at best, but was his F#@% Everybody shirt all that appropriate? Last year Kevin Millar didn't hit away from Fenway, he didn't hit lefties, he didn't hit in the playoffs or in the clutch. He's not fast enough to justify his lack of power and he's not powerful enough to justify his lack of speed. He isn't strong enough offensively or defensively to warrant an everyday job, and just the thought of Kevin in the outfield still makes me cringe. Personally, I hope he plays the outfield a lot when we play Baltimore. The Red Sox are much much better off with a platoon of Youkilis and Snow than they are with another whole year of Kevin Millar at first. Thanks for 2004 Kevin. Good luck in Baltimore-- you'll need it.

I think people's infatuation with Andy Marte is two-fold. #1: They can't be infatuated with Hanley Ramirez anymore because he's a Marlin. #2: We traded our starting shortstop for him straight up. He's got to be good, right? Personally I think it's silly to say about ANYONE "We're not trading him no matter what." I think there's a price for every player, and if a team meets that price, why the hell not? I have never seen the man play. It's true. He does have a lot of things working in his favor though: He's young. He's cheap. At the same age as the beloved Hanley Ramirez he put up BETTER numbers in a harder league. As a right handed run producing corner infielder he has some serious value. Go back and look at my posts. I have been one of the biggest "don't trade Marte" supporters but usually that's attached with a specific trade in mind. Is Lugo worth Marte? No. Is Lugo AND Gathright worth Marte? No. Is Jeremy Reed worth Marte? Not in my mind. Is Coco Crisp worth Marte AND Mota? Absolutely not. The key question for this thread: Is Barry Zito worth Andy Marte? In the right trade, maybe. I don't see Clement, Wells, and Marte for Payton and Zito. Personally I think that's too much. I'd much rather talk about sending Youk to Oakland and throw Marte into the first base platoon.

I'm all about Jeremy Reed. At the very least, he's a gold glove fielder in center for the forseeable future. One of the few available players who's an instant upgrade defensively from Johnny Damon. His cost is reasonable (a starting pitcher ala Clement or Arroyo) and his upside is worth it. His offense was down last year, but some things to consider: He's just 25 It was his first season in the majors. He was playing his home games in Safeco field (a pitchers' park) He's got a good eye. Jeremy Reed is a player who can step in right now and play everyday. He's a young kid who will improve offensively and remain a force with the glove. His minor league numbers don't necessarily suggest he'll develop power, but minor league numbers don't always show everything. Look at Steve Finley, a slick fielding center fielder who started hitting for power when he was 30. He sustained that power for a good 7-8 years. Of course, with any player who develops power contrary to the normal curve there will be questions asked about whether or not they got that power legally and healthily (you all know what I'm talking about), but even if Reed doesn't develop power, considering he will be moving into a hitters park I could easily see him sporting a line like .270/.350/.380 and hit 7-10 homers and drive in 50 runs. He can do all that and steal 15 bases, with the potential for more in future years. They've got a couple young guys like Ellsbury and Murphy who could be contributers in a few years, and if both of these guys reach their potential (and soon), one of the trio can be traded, and one can be shifted to right field because Trot Nixon may not be with us in a couple years. Jeremy Reed makes the most sense right now AND for the future.

These guys also had a pretty harsh review of Hanley Ramirez. Are these guys Sox fans? Calling Papelbon/Lester the best 1-2 punch (prospect wise) in baseball and pumping up the Sox for trading Hanley. Granted, he didn't prove a damn thing and as I've already said Marte is a much better hitting prospect, so overall the team did very well to keep Lester and Papelbon and add Marte future-wise. Anibal Sanchez (also traded to Florida) came in at #32. Just goes to show you the Sox newfound depth in the farm. They can trade 2 top 50 prospects and still have 4 prospects in the top 50. Add Marte to that and they've got 5 in the top 50. Certainly a glowing review of the farm system and if you ask me-- it's about time.

I can't believe anyone here's getting excited over the Jason Michaels. Granted, he's average defensively and he can get on base, but he's got no power (in Philly that's a big deal) and no speed. So we basically got ourself a Kevin Millar offensively in centerfield. No thanks. At least Aaron Rowand can steal bases when he gets on. Plus, he's better defensively and has shown he can hit with some power the past two years (more power than Michaels). Remember. Jason Michaels is a 4th outfielder in Philly-- do we want him starting in center everyday for us? At the cost of Manny Ramirez no less? Abreu, Michaels, and R. Tejada for Manny, Clement, and Shoppach would be a huge ripoff. Let me start by saying that I think Manny would veto a trade to the Phillies and that Phillies fans would hate Manny from the get-go. However, if we make a deal with the Phillies I would much rather do something like this: Manny, Clement, Graffanino for Rollins, Rowand, Tejada, prospect(s). Philly trades us Rowand and keeps their s***** Michaels to man center in Philly. This gives them no place for Pat Burrell but maybe they could follow through on an Abreu for Tejada type deal and put Manny in right. Their deal. I don't want any part of Abreu in Boston personally. What this does for the Red Sox: Gives us a leadoff hitter (Rollins) who can make things happen. His .338 OBP is not as high as Damon's, but the man is amazing offensively. He stole 41 bases and had a great success rate (87%). That goes along with 11 triples, 12 homers, and 38 doubles. He scored 115 runs last year. This guy is also 27 years old, almost as good as Rafael Furcal defensively and is similar offensively. He's better cheaper faster younger than Edgar was for us last year. Rowand gives the Sox great defense in center and is another guy who at 28 is just entering his prime. Robinson Tejada takes Clement's spot at the end of the rotation and at 23 has his best years ahead of him. Not to mention the emotional high of finally getting rid of Manny Ramirez' huge contract and his constant Manny being Manny ********. What this does for the Phillies: Manny Ramirez is obviously the prize here offensively, but Matt Clement is coming home (from PA) so that's a decent PR move. Graffanino backs up. The Phillies could then pull the trigger on Abreu for Tejada and move either Manny or Burell to right. Jason Michaels takes over centerfield fulltime. Do I think it's going to happen? Not really, because the FO doesn't have the balls to change the face of the franchise (which a Manny trade would no doubt do), and the Phillies probably don't want Manny's ******** either.

But Jacobs has to hit in Pro Player stadium-- not exactly conducive to huge power numbers. I think ORC said it best when he said that in relatively short order (as in 2007 or 2008) Jacobs will eclipse Delgado offensively, but I doubt it will happen as soon as 2006.

Depth is NEVER a bad thing. I just hope they didn't put a ton of money into him. He's had attitude problems in the past (Hurting his hand punching things Kevin Brown style) but he's had 3 decent years in a row since he was converted from a starter to a reliever. Like you said-- You mention 3 guys who could suck-- Keith Foulke is also a huge question mark in my opinion. That really leaves the Sox with 4 guys in the bullpen who COULD suck... if 3 of them are steady and Timlin does what he's done since he started here... the bullpen should be OK.

The Red Sox would consider taking 75 cents on the dollar for Manny because they've shown that they'd give up Manny for NOTHING and getting Abreu is a hell of a lot more than nothing. Plus, the front office has got to be sick of his antics. He's impossible to read with his constant demands, and they've got to be a distraction. His lack of effort has got to burn the likes of Nixon and Varitek who play all out baseball and his contract is outrageous. The market has been laid out for Manny Ramirez, and considering what else is out there, this might be the best offer they've received. Personally, I am not a big fan of Bobby Abreu. He's a very good hitter and I like the fact that he's a 30-30 guy but with Francona and the Red Sox management that would probably diminish to just about nothing. The problem with Abreu is that (like Ramirez) he gets accused of not trying in Philadelphia and the last thing we need is Ramirez v.2 without the offensive prowess. Abreu and Burell works out money wise with Ramirez, and those two combined would adequately replace the offensive numbers we'd lose in Ramirez, but there are things to consider with that deal: We'd then have 3 corner outfielders (Abreu, Burell, Nixon) and one would need to be dealt for a centerfielder. Burell COULD play first, but the organization has said time and time again that Youkilis would be given a chance at that job. This gives the team a bit of depth to deal from at the corners to deal from and a Nixon/Reed deal could be possible. I don't see this trade working out. Philadelphia fans are hard on their players and they'd HATE Manny Ramirez. He'd no doubt demand a trade after a year and if he stuck to his guns (which he never seems to do) the Phillies would be obligated to trade him or let him become a free agent. I don't think Philadelphia is a reasonable location for Manny Ramirez. My personal opinion is that any Manny trade changes the face of the franchise. We go from being the Ortiz and Manny show to having to depend offensively on the whole lineup, which in my opinion means we need to strengthen other areas in the process, namely pitching and defense. Considering a corpse can play better defense than Manny Ramirez, simply getting him out of Boston improves outfield defense dramatically, but if I was trading Ramirez I'd want a top-end pitcher (ala Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, or someone of that caliber) and prospects. The prospects can be either stored up for the future, dealt immediately for a bat or two, or saved for the trade deadline when there would probably be more available.

I think expecting the Ramirez/Tejada trades to happen is a little far-fetched at this point, just because of the logistics involved in completing two blockbuster deals like that. Remember, the Red Sox refused to pay part of Ramirez' salary when it involved getting Alex Rodriguez, I could see the money being an issue and this deal not getting done. One thing the Red Sox have done is not given in to the temptation to mortgage the future for 2006. This I have to give them credit for, and they've held on to Papelbon and Lester and I believe they'll keep Marte. If they hold on to those 3 (and I sincerely hope they do) the options will be limited. I have been luke-warm to the idea of Alex Gonzalez because he seems like an all-glove, no hit shortstop and he'd be asking for a pretty lucrative deal. Statistically speaking, fielding percentage is the only area where Julio Lugo would be a slight downgrade from Gonzalez defensively but would offer more consistent offense. However, I'd be raging pissed at the Red Sox if they traded Marte, Lester, or Papelbon for Lugo. That having been said, if you take a look at what's available (Alex Gonzalez or Royce Clayton via free agency and Miguel Tejada or Julio Lugo via trade) the options are very slim. Of that quartet, Royce Clayton has the highest fielding percentage but trails significantly in range factor and zone rating. Of course, it stands to reason that Clayton probably got to less balls, resulting in fewer errors. Lugo, Tejada, and Gonzalez are pretty close defensively, and probably stack up in this order: Gonzalez, Tejada, Lugo. Offensively it's no contest, Tejada is the best, followed by Lugo, Gonzalez, and Clayton. Lugo seems to make a lot of sense for Boston because he can play shortstop reasonably well, he can get on base, and he can steal bases. He would be a guy who could fill shortstop and leadoff. None of the other three have that going for them. Considering what Tejada would cost (Manny, Clement, and cash) and the unlikelyhood of such a trade (or two such trades if Philadelphia gets involved) happening, it's down in my head to Julio Lugo or Alex Gonzalez. Based solely on what they bring to the table, Lugo makes more sense. He's slightly more error prone, but he fits the Red Sox needs better with his batting eye and speed. That being said, he's simply not worth the asking price. Given all of the options on the table, it probably makes the most sense to sign Alex Gonzalez to something in the neighborhood of 2 years, $4 mil per season and rest assured that you've got one of the top defensive shortstops in the game and hope being in Fenway ignites his bat. As far as centerfield is concerned, the Red Sox have admirably avoided giving in to Seattle's demands of Lester or Papelbon for Jeremy Reed. When it comes to Jeremy Reed you've got to ask yourself: what are you getting? Again, statistically speaking he's one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game. Certainly an upgrade defensively over Johnny Damon. The question is his bat. Seattle people don't think he'll develop power, I read somewhere that some scouts think he's the second coming of Jim Edmonds. Peter Gammons said Boston's people think he'll have a higher on base percentage than Johnny Damon next season, and with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz hitting behind you getting on base is a step in the right direction. The other option out there seems to be Coco Crisp. While at the same age as Jeremy Reed has already been a significant run producer, he played most of last year in left field. He's played 188 games in center field in his career and has pretty decent defensive statistics. Both of these guys would be tremendous additions IMO, so the question becomes cost at this point. It seems if you listen to the rumor mill (which need to be taken with a grain of salt) that a Bronson Arroyo for Jeremy Reed trade could happen, where Coco Crisp would cost something along the lines of Andy Marte+. Personally if those are the two options on the table I go with Jeremy Reed. If the Red Sox can get him for Bronson Arroyo without giving up prospects, the Red Sox can add one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game by giving up a #4 starter. If he develops into a productive offensive player-- all the better. By adding Alex Gonzalez and Jeremy Reed at my assumed price tags, the Red Sox put themselves in the position of being one of the better fielding teams in the league (having upgraded third base, shortstop, and centerfield defensively) without giving up a whole lot. If Jeremy Reed plays tremendous defense and doesn't hit a lick, he at least covers the spot for the likes of David Murphy or Jacoby Ellsbury down the road. The two guys who will go a long way toward determining who's starting in centerfield and shortstop are David Wells and Manny Ramirez. If you believe all the rumors, Manny Ramirez could net Miguel Tejada and Wells could net JD Drew or Jay Payton. Then you're covered at both of those positions (granted you've got a whole in left field at this point). If the Red Sox truly have resigned themselves to the fact that Manny is staying and that Wells won't bring a player of significance back, trading for Jeremy Reed and signing Alex Gonzalez make the most sense to me at this point.

Woody Williams is an old, very well paid version of Bronson Arroyo. He's servicable, but he's by no means worthy of a spot in Boston's rotation. He doesn't kill himself with walks but he's very hittable and he isn't the kind of guy who can rack up strikeouts. I keep referencing pitchers strikeout rates because to me that's a good sign of how dominant a pitcher is. If he isn't striking folks out, he's not a very dominant pitcher and he relies way too much on his defense-- which most years in Boston is bad news. Another thing about Woody that stands out is his home/road splits. He was 4-5 with a 6.38 ERA away from Pedco Park. Another thing to remember is that the Padres played 19 games each against the Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rockies-- weak teams. Put him in the AL East against offenses like Baltimore, New York, and Toronto (plus the added DH) in a hitters' park at Fenway and he's going to get LIT UP. The Red Sox would be better off letting Wells retire and having him forfeit his guaranteed money than taking Woody Williams back in a trade.

While he doesn't fill the leadoff hole for Boston, if I had my choice in a trade for Wells I'd take Payton over Roberts. I don't know if he burned his bridges with Tito and company last year but as far as baseball skills are concerned Payton IMO is more valuable. He's never been a base stealer in his career but he has good baserunning ability and is reasonably fast. He also has some pop in his bat and his OBP in Oakland was lower than his career averages. He's got good range in center and a better arm than Johnny Damon. I think he's signed through this year and would (IMO) be a good stopgap guy in center. Acquiring Payton to play center everyday would force a guy like Loretta into the leadoff spot, which isn't ideal but Payton IMO has more offensive weapons than Roberts. If you take a look his career numbers, Roberts had a career year last year. His AVG, OBP, and SLG were all well above his career averages and all were very close to career highs. His stolen base numbers were down considerably and he really is a slap hitter with not a whole lot of power. Riverside-- I agree with you here that San Diego is less inclined to deal for Wells at this point. I think a much more likely senario for Wells is LA. They just lost Weaver for good, and Colletti made comments after the Seo trade with the Mets that they were still interested in adding one more starter. The Dodgers have more expendable young arms than San Diego does anyway and I'd love to capitalize on the fact that the Dodgers seem to have lost faith in Edwin Jackson and get him to Boston in that deal. Oakland's interest in Wells is curious to me. They've already got two veterans in Loaiza and Zito, and some good youngsters in Harden, Haren and Blanton and still have their #5 from last year in Kirk Sarloos. The only way that makes sense to me is a 3-way in which Wells ends up in LA and the A's get prospects. To me they seem to have little use for David Wells. The West coast teams that have never been mentioned but to me should have some real interest are Seattle and San Fransisco. The Giants added Matt Morris but the 3-5 spots will be covered by rookies. They've got a relatively old core with Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Steve Finley, and Omar Vizquel and it would behoove them (IMO) to try to win soon especially with the NL West up for grabs. A move for Wells would strengthen their chances considerably. Seattle's a long shot for a few reasons. #1, they probably don't have a good enough team even with Wells to win the AL West. #2, they already have a crafty veteran lefty in Jaime Moyer, why would they want 2?, and #3, Wells wanted to be closer to his San Diego home, and while Seattle's a heck of a lot closer to San Diego than Boston is, it's not exactly his dream destination. Of course Wells doesn't have a no trade clause so he would have little say in the matter. Seattle would seem to make sense if Wells could fetch Reed..... but again not sure if there's a match there.

Crespo-- that's an extremely optimistic comparison. At this point I'd rather have Beckett than Johnson because Beckett is going to be better for longer, but in 2006 with Beckett adjusting from Florida to Boston (pitching in both the AL East and in a hitters' park) I'd have to think Johnson is better (in the SHORT TERM) than Beckett. Beckett I agree with you 100% on the #2 spot. Schilling may never be the same pitcher he was in 2004, but considering that he's finally healthy and can have a full offseason to get himself in proper pitching shape, he's much more reliable and effective than Mussina. Schilling > Mussina Assuming Wells is traded, I'm throwing Wakefield into Boston's #3 spot. I agree with ksushi that Wang is basically Arroyo. Neither one is terribly dominant and both are back of the rotation starters. If anything I'd even give Arroyo an edge over Wang head-to-head. Wakefield > Wang As things stand right now, I would say that Wright is probably not a favorite to make the Yankees' rotation. With his injuries and ineffectiveness last year, he's going to have to prove himself both healthy and effective to win a spot. With that in mind, and also keeping in mind that Boston will probably try to keep Papelbon's inning and pitch counts down at least to start the year, I'm slating Clement into the #4 spot for Boston and Pavano for NY. We all know that Matt Clement had a disastrous second half last year and given his tendancies I simply don't buy that his collapse was entirely a result of getting hit in the head. While it must have some kind of psychological impact, Clement is also historically better in the first half than in the second. That having been said, I'm not completely sold on Pavano either. He doesn't miss a lot of bats, and in the AL East with Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto bringing very good lineups against him I think he's going to get eaten alive. He's really only had one good season and that was in Florida and in the NL East. (For those Yankees fans prepared to call me a hipocrat.... I also said Josh Beckett-- who's a much better pitcher than Carl Pavano would suffer moving into Boston and the AL East). Clement will look much better at the All Star break but these guys will probably be about even by year's end. I think Clement's got a lot more potential if he can harness his control and stay consistent-- but that's a big IF. Clement = Pavano Barring a trade, Bronson Arroyo's probably the #5 starter for the Red Sox. Also, if I'm the Yankees, I'm going to try to ride Shawn Chacon's hot streak into 2005. He's long on confidence right now given his good performance last year and he's my favorite to win the final starter's job. Of course, he has some relief experience (albiet less successful than his career as a starter) so that might impact NY's decision. Right now though Chacon's the favorite IMO. While Chacon got a lot of press in NY for having a great second half, his stats don't bode well for future dominance especially in the AL East. Even despite his 2.85 ERA he had only 40 K's in 80 innings and walked 30 batters in that span. He also gave up a fair amount of hits (66) meaning he had 96 baserunners in 80 innings-- not a great ratio. Compare that to Bronson Arroyo who had 100 K's in 205 innings but only 54 walks. He did allow a ton of hits (213) so he also is not dominant. However, considering that Arroyo has been in the AL East for 2 full seasons and Chacon has only been around for half a season, hitters are more familiar with Bronson. Since historically when hitters and pitchers are not familiar with each other the pitcher has the advantage, I expect Chacon's numbers to fall off from his 2005 second half. Therefore, I'm giving Bronson the advantage here. Arroyo > Chacon As far as the 6th man is concerned, the Yankees have 2 candidates: Aaron Small and Jaret Wright. The Red Sox have Jon Papelbon as their extra man. On the same token as expecting Chacon's numbers to fall off a little bit once the league gets familiar with him, I would expect the same thing to happen to Small and Papelbon, and I've said about 100 times that I'm not sold on Wright. He's always been long on potential and played one good year under Leo Mazzone (who seems to get pitchers to play above their ability) into a lucrative contract. Papelbon's at the age (25) where he's only going to get better, and as a rookie he K'd 34 in 34 innings and kept his walk total relatively low (17). 33 hits in 34 innings is a bit high. Both Jaret Wright and Aaron Small are on the wrong side of 30 and Jaret Wright was simply awful last year. He had an OK start early in the year against Boston but was dodging trouble all night in that start. Aaron Small was 10-0 last year and pitched pretty well, but he's a 35 year old rookie and no doubt was pitching way over his head last year. I expect he'll come down to earth. Papelbon > Small/Wright If all parties are healthy, the Red Sox have a much stronger rotation than the Yankees. Of course the Yankees have Mariano Rivera and a dominant closer is something missing from Boston's bullpen. If Beckett has blister problems or Schilling has injury problems it's a whole different senario. Of course the same can be said for Randy Johnson's knees/back, Mussina's elbow, or Pavano and Wright's shoulder.

This is the second time that the media in Baltimore (I think the Baltimore Sun in fact) had jumped the gun on Orioles moves. First it was Burnitz, now Patterson. Ksushi-- I hate to say this because I don't like it.... but Corey Patterson isn't the Red Sox type of player. I'd love to have him on the team because like I've said 100 times before he's everything the Red Sox aren't: Young, cheap, and athletic.... but his strike zone judgement is very poor at this point and the Red Sox seem much more interested in the likes of Jeremy Reed. I can see the merits of a guy like Reed over Patterson. Statistically, Reed was one of the best defensive centerfielders last year and Patterson very simply wasn't. Reed is also young and depending on which scouts you ask he's either the second coming of Jim Edmonds or he'll be an all-defense, no hit centerfielder his whole career. The Red Sox love Reed's on base skills and I heard somewhere that their people believe he'll have a higher OBP than Damon in 2006, but IMO Patterson has a higher offensive ceiling. I agree with you that since the leading candidate to be our starting centerfielder is Adam Stern and his only likely competition is David Murphy that they need at least a stopgap guy who can be an everyday man in 2006-- and they're in a state where they can't be as selective as they probably should be... but my guess is that because of Patterson's lack of on base skills that another team will outbid Boston for Patterson's services next year. Patterson's situation will be very interesting to watch though. Seattle's interest in him is probably as a replacement for Reed so they can move him to Boston. If the Nationals and Rangers are searching for a true centerfielder and lose out on Patterson, would they then go after Reed, driving up the price? Either way the Sox need to figure out who's playing centerfield in 2006... and do it sooner rather than later.

It's true that Mulder-Zito-Hudson never won a playoff series, but a big part of that too was that the offense was build incorrectly. If you look at the Atlanta Braves of that time as well, they were both built the same way (unfortunately the same way the Red Sox seem to be going) in that they add a bunch of OBP guys and power hitters and pray for the 3-run homer.... and they lost some 1-0 games because their lineup just didn't stack up to other great pitching staffs. The Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 DESPITE the defense of Mueller and Manny in game one, and in the other games played great fundamental baseball. They also got exceedingly lucky getting some breaks against the Yankees that they wouldn't have gotten in the past (Bellhorn's HR, the A-Rod fiasco), granted those were both the right calls, but could have been disastrous. Then there was Jeff Suppan being a stupid runner in (I think) game 3 which really gave the Red Sox a break. A lot of times in the playoffs (just look at the White Sox getting some controversial calls their way) it's luck that gives teams momentum and goes a long way toward determining winners in the playoffs. I'm sort of getting away from my point here a little, but the Yankees of the late 90s were a MUCH MUCH different team than the team they sport now. They had strong pitching and a great FUNDAMENTAL team, and instead of 25 high priced all-stars they had 25 good players who played great when the pressure was on. Anyway-- since both Manny and Miguel have announced (kinda) that they're staying the argument at this point is moot. I believe that you overvalue guys like Manny Ramirez and you disagree with me.... we're just going to have to agree to disagree on that one....

yes. I agree completely. In the end what's even more important to me than having players who "grew up Red Sox" as you put it is having a solid young core group that you can build around. That way they grow up in the bigs together, and instead of adding big-time free agents and wasting money (ahem, Yankees), you're adding spare parts to win championships. If the Orioles are smart, they'd much sooner make a trade with a White Sox team offering good young players like Uribe and good prospects than you are accepting Manny Ramirez IMO. Boston HAS TO hold on to the likes of Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, and Marte. This is a huge part of the core group I'm talking about. The key to winning is strong defense and strong pitching. Winning teams do not have the biggest superstars or the highest payrolls. Winning teams play good fundamental baseball. The Red Sox DID NOT win because they had Manny Ramirez. That's ********. They won because they had Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez, and guys like Derek Lowe and Keith Foulke had HEROIC pitching performances in October. Not to mention they had the luxury of having a fantastic defensive infield of Mueller, Cabrera, Reese, and Mientkiewicz late in games. Beckett and Papelbon should form a nice 1-2 punch of good young pitchers, and if Jon Lester becomes what everyone says he will, then you've all of a sudden got a threesome that could rival Mulder-Zito-Hudson or even Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz..... and look what happened to THOSE teams. I'm with SITN. Keep Papelbon and Lester at all costs.

Two things: #1: The Orioles have expressed that they are not enamored with the idea of moving Tejada within the division. So that's instantly a knock on the Sox' chances. Think about it: If you got a comprable offer for Manny from the Orioles or the White Sox, where would you send him? White Sox all the way. Why? Because if Manny's in Baltimore he's going to have a chance to hurt you 19 times. If he's in Chicago, it's more like 9 times. You'd love it even more if you got a package from the Cubs ot Mets because then you'd face him at most 3 times. #2: I think you're overstating the value of Manny Ramirez. First of all, his contract prices him out of at least half of the teams in the majors. Second, he signed his contract in an inflated market-- and guys like Albert Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero, who are both better players than Manny Ramirez, are making a lot less money (to the tune of $5 million). Third, he's a one-dimensional player. He's bad defensively, he's got no speed, his arm is decent (but he does play half his games in Fenway's left field keep in mind) and his bat is really his only valuable tool. This is not to mention the constant controversy he causes by requesting trades every 5 minutes and retracting those requests later, and the fact that he probably gives at most 80% effort on the field. Matt Clement has tarnished his baseball reputation if you ask me with his second half collapse last year and his poor performance in the playoffs. He's got much more value staying here and trying to rebound than on the trade market. Like it or not, Jose Contreras' value on the trade market is high right now. Not only was he one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half last year, but he was also dominant in the playoffs. Juan Uribe is a very good defensive shortstop who at 26 is on the rise. He will probably never have the offensive prowess of Tejada, but in Camden yards could probably approach 25-30 homers since it's a right handed hitter's park. It is my understanding that the White Sox were offering top prospects (although not McCarthy) in addition to Contreras and Uribe, and under the circumstances, Baltimore is probably not going to compete in 2006, why not build for 07/08? If I'm the Orioles, and I am looking at getting a headcase starting pitcher (which is Clement's REPUTATION right now) and at best an enigmatic slugger who COULD demand a trade after one season (which is his right, and I HAVE to honor it or he could opt free agency) or a hot pitcher who's instantly my ace, an up and coming shortstop, and 2 top prospects??? I'd take the second deal hands down. I've said this about 10,000 times on this website: Pitching and defense wins championships. Manny Ramirez + Matt Clement doesn't come close to Uribe, Contreras and two prospects as far as improving those two areas is concerned.

Tejada to Boston without Manny very simply isn't going to happen. This is obviously one man's opinion, but let me justify it: #1: The Orioles didn't want to trade Miguel within the division when they were getting Manny in the deal. What makes you think they'll do it without any immediate help? #2: The Red Sox have maintained that they will not mortgage the future for a win-now mentality. Trading Marte, Lester, and Shoppach (along with a Clement) for Tejada would go a long way toward killing the future, and not only that, you're hooking up Baltimore (a direct competitor) for years. I don't like the idea at all. Considering the White Sox probably have an offer along the lines of Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, and a couple of decent prospects on the table, the Red Sox would have to top that by a considerable margin (IMO) to convince Baltimore to send Tejada to a direct competitor. I just don't see that happening here. Tejada is a fantastic player and great hitter, and while I love the IDEA of Tejada in Boston (especially with Manny and Ortiz in the lineup too), I just don't think it's realistic.