elsrbueno

In real life, I think the Sox and Angels are a world apart. I heard the Angels offered Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera for Manny early in the offseason. Of course Finley's in San Fransisco now, but the latest was Erstad and Cabrera. While I personally like those two guys, that is not even close to a fair trade and the Angels know it-- I don't think they're interest is as strong as people in the media like to make it, or the Red Sox wish it was. We're stuck with Manny Ramirez-- the good and the bad.

Yep. It all depends on how badly the O's want to be rid of Tejada. If they'd take a package of say Matt Clement, Trot Nixon, and a Dave Murphy quality prospect I'd make that deal. I'd still do Tejada for Manny, but the Orioles obviously won't do that. If I was the Orioles, I wouldn't have been stupid enough to think Kris Benson was the answer to my problems, but ALSO I'd try to retool a bit, starting with Javy Lopez and Miguel Tejada. They're a 4th place team at BEST right now, so those guys do them no good. While we're talking eyes in the clouds trade ideas, how about the following: Red Sox trade: Dave Murphy, David Wells, Kevin Youkilis, Tony Graffanino Dodgers trade: Prospects (not Billingsley most likely) Orioles trade: Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez Red Sox get: Tejada, Lopez Dodgers get: Wells, Graffanino Orioles get: Murphy, Youkilis, prospects (from Dodgers). Like I said: Eyes in the clouds. Probably needs a bit of retooling with the Sox giving up a little bit more either to LA for better prospects or in form of prospects (sans Lester or Papelbon but anyone else IMO is fair game). bam-- instant contender in Boston with potent bats of Tejada at short and Lopez at first. Baltimore gets a decent prospect in Murphy and a young cheap first baseman in Youkilis (who can also play third) and decent prospects from LA. Boston's lineup instantly contends with New York's because that's 2 potential 30 HR bats added. Baltimore can put Mora at short (isn't that where he started his career?) and put Youk at third if they'd rather...

Isn't there some rule against trading a player who you just signed as a free agent? This would mean Alex Gonzalez is untradable. Even still, I don't like the deal. The Red Sox trade a right handed hitting Youk for a lefthanded hitting Choi, giving the Sox 2 lefthanded hitting first baseman. Wells, Gonzalez, Lester, and Graffanino for Tejada? A steep price. Like you said I think it's a good deal for the Red Sox without Lester, but then again why would the Orioles trade Matos and Tejada for Lowe, Gonzalez, and Youkilis without getting Lester? For those two reasons I don't see this being all that realistic. I repeat my earlier sentiment-- I'd MUCH MUCH rather trade Manny Ramirez than Lester for Miguel Tejada.

I agree 100%. Between the good luck the Yankees had (Chacon and Small coming out of NOWHERE) and the bad luck the Sox had (Wells getting hurt, and Embree, Bellhorn, and Schilling sucking) we SOMEHOW still made the playoffs, and that was a small miracle by itself. I think the package we'd be getting back in my proposal hurts our present team a LITTLE, and boosts 2007 and beyond a LOT. I've been advocating trading Manny Ramirez since before Talksox was launched (or at least before I joined it), so forgive me if I'm a little over eager to send him packing. But to anyone who also thinks trading Manny is throwing in the towel on 2006 is mistaken. Imagine getting the package I mentioned (Erstad, Figgins, Santana, Morales, Wood for Manny, Wells, and Graffanino). You're still very deep in the pitching staff because Santana is ML Ready. s***, Santana (12-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) was almost as good as Wells last season (15-7, 4.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) and is 10 years younger. Granted, he's bound to have a sophomore slump (a lot of pitchers do) and his home/road splits were a little troublesome, but that's part of what you get when you trade for a 23 year old starter. I digress-- back to the rotation depth: You've still got 7 starters(Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Papelbon, Arroyo, Santana), a deep pen (Foulke, Timlin, Seanez, Riske, Tavarez, DiNardo/Alvarez) and a decent lineup. The MAJOR whole now is RH power. Too much pressure is being put on Mike Lowell to protect Ortiz, the lineup takes a big hit without Manny's production. Of course, your defense with Erstad in CF and Crisp in LF is far far far better than it was with Manny and Crisp, and that's going to save you some runs. HOWEVER, if the formula still isn't working come June, you've got tremendous pitching depth to deal from and mid-season pitching is worth way more than offense because everyone's looking to add a starter. The lineup (a little different than what we're used to): Erstad, Crisp, Loretta, Ortiz, Varitek, Lowell, Nixon, Youkilis, Gonzalez/Cora/Pedroia. The advantage is that you've now got a shortstop with TONS of power potential on the way, an offensive outfielder (Morales) who could help by midseason, and a dangerous speed demon (Figgins) as an extra. To me that also says that Erstad could be packaged with Clement (or Nixon could be packaged instead of Erstad) to get a slugger as a rental and Figgins could step in to centerfield (or left for that matter) and everybody from Varitek on down could be shifted down a spot. Like I've been saying all along, trading Manny Ramirez makes sense if you can get the right package, and IMO that is an awesome package.

I'm kind of a pessimist by nature, but the way I see it a bunch of things have to go RIGHT for the Red Sox to be competitors this year anyway: 1. Schilling back to ace form 2. Beckett healthy and at least a 15 game winner 3. Clement closer to the first half of 05 than second 4. FOULKE HEALTHY and EFFECTIVE 5. Lowell rebound 6. Loretta healthy 7. Crisp makes a smooth transition I'm not worried about Schilling, Loretta, or Crisp, but the rest of them concern me. Especially Clement and Foulke..... Not that I'm advocating giving up on the season before it starts-- but if we're a third place team already, why not stock up for 2007 in the process and be a slightly less fearsome 3rd place team?

Yes it's fun to speculate. I think you're giving up way too much for too little in that deal though. The thing with prospects is that not all of them develop into what they're supposed to be, so depth (IMO) is important. Kendrick is a second baseman yes, Morales is an outfielder I believe, and Wood is a shortstop. Personally I see Pedroia as a second baseman down the road, so here's my idea along those lines: Red Sox-- Erstad, Santana, Figgins, Wood, Morales (RH Power) Angels -- Manny, Wells, Graffanino

My two cents (well, maybe twelve-ish cents): Trot IS a classic dirt dog. You've got to love his attitude because all he does is play his ass off. He's unspectacular as a player, but with the game on the line I feel confident with him up there (whether that's logical or not) and nothing would make me happier than seeing him finish his career in Boston. That being said, as MC Hammer said, that's the emotional side of things. Trot Nixon is really a 4th outfielder at this portion of his career because a) he can't stay healthy, and he can't hit lefties. If the Sox could lock him up for a low price with the understanding that he's a 4th outfielder I say go for it. That being said, if the Sox can get good value for him (I don't imagine his trade value is too high right now), I say do it. A big no thanks to Bobby Abreu. While his overall stats show that he's a superstar caliber player, this guy gets eaten alive in Philly and is always critisized for lack of effort. I DO NOT WANT ANOTHER MANNY RAMIREZ (huge talent, huge contract, bad attitude). Also, for what it's worth, Abreu hit .304/.423/.535 at home last season (in a hitter's park), and .268/.387/.417 away from it. Granted he'd be playing half of his games in Fenway as a Red Sox, but it shows that his stats are skewed. Also, in September while the Phillies were fighting for a playoff spot, he hit .250/.395/.396. He also had a horrendous second half last year. The stats seem to back up what SFOC said about him not hitting when you NEED him to. The one constant with this guy is that he can really get on base even when he's not hitting. That's attractive by itself, and he'd be an OK #2 hitter, but at his price (contract wise) I'd have to get him very cheaply (talent wise) and Clement and Nixon is too much for him. Carlos Lee is decent, but like others have said I wouldn't give a ton of talent for him when he could be persued in the off-season. UNLESS Manny is traded and we're in need of a RH power hitter, I say stay clear of trading for Lee at this point.

Getting Santana, Figgins, 2 or 3 prospects, AND the financial relief of Manny's contract? Yes please. Call me crazy/stupid, but I'd take on Darin Erstad in this trade to help balance out the contracts. I'm pretty sure Erstad is signed for only one more season, albeit at a huge price, but I'd take on Erstad and throw him in center (shifting Crisp to left). Darin Erstad is the kind of guy Boston fans would love. He runs through walls (ala Damon) for your team and he's athletic enough so he won't be a drag on the lineup. YES, he's declining (which is strange because he's only 31) but to me he's like Mike Lowell in that he's a guy you HAVE to take on to get the talent you want, he'll be good defensively, and anything you get offensively will be a bonus. How's about Manny Ramirez and Graffanino (replacement utility guy) for Erstad, Santana, Figgins, and two of the following (Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales)?

I'd rather trade Manny Ramirez than trade Lester to get Miguel Tejada.

I'm with you there RSR. I'm sure Manny's name will be tossed around in the rumor mill throughout this season and in Spring Training. I think Theo and his crew have WANTED to trade Manny Ramirez (despite what they're saying in the media) since they took over-- they just haven't found a match just yet. I also think the NY Mets are the only team desperate enough to give a decent package back-- too bad they don't have a ton of talent. As far as the Wells rumor-- who knows. It really depends on what's REALLY going on inside Wells' head. If he wants to get out of Boston because he can't go drinking after the game, a trade to the Mets makes sense. If he really wants to be in Southern California to finish his career, then the bottom line is that he wouldn't be as happy in New York. HOWEVER, to my knowledge David Wells does not have a no trade clause in his contract.... so if the Red Sox got a good package from the Mets, I don't see any reason that they couldn't make that trade... other than the obvious backlash of Wells going somewhere he didn't want to go, but it's not like Wells is really the kind of class act guy you try to accomidate at all costs......

I think we learned our lesson from last year that you can never be too deep in the bullpen. We have 4 guys who should be reliable enough setting up instead of one last year. Plus if Foulke is more like the 2005 version than the 2004 version we'll have 3 setup men because one of them will become the closer. At the very least having Riske, Seanez, and Tavarez here will keep the workload down on Timlin, which is definately a good thing. He's put a TON of innings on his arm since joining the Sox.... and he's not getting any younger.

Kap back is great news. I've always liked him. Probably will have to fight for a job with Mohr and Harris, but a great guy to have in the clubhouse.

You're right about at least one thing. Boston is not south Florida. However, you're focusing on the negatives. The best thing to do (IMO) is to compare last year's regulars to this year's. Keep in mind, we won 95 games last year. Third Base: Bill Mueller vs Mike Lowell. Bill Mueller was a fantastic baseball player, but a few things need to be stated about him: #1. He's got bad knees. #2, he hit .283 away from Fenway Park last year, and over the past 3 years he's been a .321 hitter at Fenway vs .284 on the road. He's a solid hitter and a good defender, but his numbers are INFLATED by playing half his games in one of the best hitters' parks in baseball. Mike Lowell is a GOLD GLOVE caliber third baseman. His defense will be as good if not better than Mueller's. He's averaged .280/25 homers/80 RBIs over the past 3 years despite playing in Florida, one of the BEST pitchers' parks in all of baseball. He's a right handed pull hitter, and will be playing half his games in a right handed pull hitter's dream park. He'll be surrounded by better hitters in Boston, and he came here under the premise that he was the player the Red Sox were FORCED to take to get another guy they wanted. You don't think that's serious motivation? Even in his down year he hit 36 doubles and 8 homers in that pitchers' park. Translate that to Fenway and I'd say that's 40+ doubles and 10+ homers (probably less doubles and more homers), and you've basically got similar production to Mueller and gold glove defense. If he returns to 2003-2004 form, he's a 35-40 HR hitter in Boston. (I'll admit that's a big IF at this point). Shortstop: Edgar Renteria last year hit .280 with 8 homers and 70 RBI out of the #2 spot. He also committed 30 errors (most in baseball) and had limited range. The new guy (assuming he signs), Alex Gonzalez, had half as many errors and has more range, so he's an instant defensive upgrade. Offensively, he struggles with his command of the strike zone I'll admit, but he's capable of hitting for power (20 HR 2 years ago) and also will be moving from Pro Player to Fenway (huge hitters' advantage there). It's a completely reasonable assumption given his history, the fact that he too will be surrounded by better hitters with a better hitting coach and in a better hitters' park, that he'll hit .270 with 10ish homers. He probably won't get 70 RBI, but he's hitting out of the 8 spot not the #2 spot. Even still, he should at least match Edgar's offensive production with better defense. Second Base: As already agreed upon, Mark Loretta is better than Graff/Bellhorn/Cora on both sides of the baseball. First Base: As I've said before, it would be impossible to downgrade from our first base situation last season. We had Kevin Millar, who despite his chronicled clubhouse presense, was probably the worst everyday first baseman in baseball last year. He was bottom 5 defensively, and bottom 5 offensively. He didn't hit lefthanders, he didn't hit in the clutch, and he didn't hit away from Fenway Park. Even if JT Snow was forced to play everyday, he'd be better than Kevin Millar was last year. Now Youkilis is an unproven commodity, but in his limited Major League Experience, he's hit .265 with a .376 on base percentage in 287 at bats. Aggregate that over a full season (500+ ABs), and he's got 40 doubles and 16 homers over a full season as a full time player, and at 26 he's only going to get BETTER. First base is a huge upgrade. This team is as good or better at every infield position than the team that tied for the AL East division last year-- and also got stronger and deeper on the pitching staff and replaced Damon with a comprable player in Coco Crisp. For what it's worth, Coco hit .345 with 6 homers and 16 RBI in September last year when the Guardians were fighting for a playoff spot. While the Red Sox were fighting the Yankees last season for a playoff spot in September? Johnny Damon hit .290 with 1 homer and 9 RBI.

That's pretty much a Red Sox organizational philosophy-- get a guy on base for the big bashers in the middle. I agree with you once again-- Tito can't be blamed for not sending guys.... My guess is that the word came down from above Tito to be less agressive. I'd LOVE to see a Sox team like the Marlins of 03 or the Angels of the past few years. Very agressive, tons of speed. Although I love stats and understand the significance of the fact that it might not make mathematical sense to take the risk, I also believe in putting some serious pressure on the other team's defense. Especially considering that we'll be playing the Yankees 19 times. If you've got some speed on first you will be able to go first to third on a single 9 times out of 10 with Sheffield, Damon, and Matsui's arms out there. With Posada behind the plate, they should be able to steal a lot too. I don't see it happening, but I'd do cartwheels if it did.

I see where you're coming from, and I'll admit that my distaste for Manny Ramirez has my judgment clouded a bit, but I see Chone Figgins as an impact guy. In Anaheim last year, he hit .290 with a .352 OBP. No, he's not a power guy, but he had 642 ABs last year-- this guy is an EVERYDAY player without a true position yet. He also had 10 triples, 8 homers, and stole 62 bases last year-- this guy's a born leadoff hitter and would thrive in Boston. He played 50 games in centerfield last year and I wouldn't think twice about throwing him out there again (and shifting Crisp to left or vise versa). The only issue I see with this is protection for Ortiz. We go away from being the slow pitch softball team we've been since before any of us were born, and become the go-go Red Sox. Figgins, Loretta, Ortiz, Lowell, Nixon, Varitek, Crisp, Youk, Gonzalez (assuming he signs) Personally I'd love that team..... If Lowell falls flat on his face (which I don't think is going to happen) the team has the money to acquire another bat, and the flexibility to get it in either third base, or left/center because Figgins could step in and play third. Add Santana to the pitching staff at the back end of the rotation and 2 big time prospects.... I'd still give us a shot at the wild card in 06 and a team that's just getting better from year to year.....

The man did win a gold glove last year-- so while I admit not seeing much of his play last year, he can't be much of a downgrade. It's at least a wash defensively. I also agree with your earlier remark about how the Red Sox will not outslug the Yankees. Nobody in baseball will. But how many times has the best offensive team in baseball won the World Series? Not unless that best offensive team also had great pitching, and I wouldn't classify the Yankee pitching as "great." Good enough to win the AL East? Perhaps, but not good enough to run away with it IMO. Gonzalez should be better than Renteria defensively, and while 20 homers is a stretch, he should hit .270 with 10 homers, and with the on base machine Youkilis hitting in front of him he should have some chances for RBIs. There's a really good chance IMO that Gonzalez matches Renteria's offensive output for 2005 next season at a fraction of the price. I think the Sox have a chance to be better than 2005 with the team currently put together. The pitching is better, the defense is better, and considering that they've got Lowell, Gonzalez, and Snow coming from pitchers' parks to Fenway, and Crisp on the rise, Nixon healthy (hopefully), and Manny+ Ortiz back for their assault on the AL, about the same offensively. I would have signed Gonzalez at $5 million, so I'm thrilled with getting him for $3.

If the Sox could get Santana, Figgins, and 2 top angel prospects (along the lines of Wood/Kendrick/Morales/Kotchman) I'd pull the trigger on that deal in a heartbeat. I wonder if the Angels would also be interested in David Wells. Anaheim would be an agreeable destination for David and they could use his veteran arm. The chance to get Santana (a future ace), Figgins (a utility guy who can do damage as an everyday player), and any 2 of those guys mentioned would be stupid to pass up.

I think that there's more to what is motivating Wells than just " a desire to get to the West Coast ". Wells has a fairly grounded working knowledge of the market and the effects of PR leaks. I'm sure both he and his agent are by stating that : not only does he want to be traded ( but traded to a West Coast team ), would severely limit the Red Sox's ability to make a trade ( let alone receive market value compensation ). My guess, is that he had made a decision that he either gets what he wants or he'll retire. Its not exactly the same situation, but similar to that of Roger Clemens ( granted Roger was a free agent ), his age and injury history is are draw backs, however, his " big name experience ", his record last year, and the fact that he's a lefty, all work in his favor. I remember when the Yanks traded him to the Blue Jays, he was pissed and threatened not to go, he also lambasted the Yankees. Yet he went to the Jays and returned to the Yankees. So in summary, if he just wanted to retire, he would have done so ( unless he was trying to stick it to the Sox ), with that said, it means he will report, or holdout reporting to Spring Training. The logic is that if he retires while under contract, he would have to sit out an entire year. He would then be 43 with no recent history, not a good thing. So therefore, he will report and wait to get traded ( while bitching to the press and getting even less in a trade ) or he will hold out and demand a new contract. Clearly, he's not willing to retire, he wants something(s), and I doubt its just to get traded to the West Coast. He will do what he has to do, report late, hold-out, or pitch and bitch. But he will not retire. If you're right about Wells (and I have little doubt that you are), the Sox have no choice but to trade him before Spring Training-- and in a situation like that, his trade value is not very high at all. Trading him for prospects seems the most logical choice given the depth of the current staff, but who could the Sox get for Wells?

No, I don't think teams are jumping through hoops to get Wells. It's probably because frankly, they'd rather not trade young players for a 42 year old starter, especially one who's openly stated that he wants out. The best thing for the Red Sox might be to keep him in the rotation until mid-season. Allow some races to develop and some teams like LA, San Diego, and Anaheim realize that they're rotations need strengthening. Maybe then they'll get greedy and try to overpay for Wells. The question is: Will he pitch for the Red Sox if not traded?

Maybe I'm wrong about this, but don't the Sox see Dustin Pedroia as a future second baseman? I always thought getting a 1 year stopgap like Mark Loretta was a perfect solution. Start Dustin in AAA and bring him up midseason as a bench guy, and get him enough experience to be able to hand him the starting second baseman's job in 2007. I've said this before but I think Alex Gonzalez would be a perfect fit here. He's a gold glove shortstop with offensive potential. I think Cora is ideal as a bench guy (utility infielder) and would like to see him fill that role. Graffanino and Wells (IMO) have got to be traded before opening day. Unless of course Cora's the starting shortstop, then Graffanino is the utility infielder.

yay, complaining! I actually ended up better off than most of you. I waited for about 2 hours in the "virtual waiting room" before being selected (I didn't start trying until 3pm) and by the time I DID get in the only tickets I could find that weren't standing room (for an afternoon game) were for a Thursday afternoon game against KC. I did say a few choice swear words when It took me longer than 1 minute and 30 seconds to fill out the form and my tickets were released the first time.... At least I didn't pay 3 X face value like I did last year at stubhub.com.....

I agree Crisp is a better offensive player than his career numbers. His average, on base percentage, and slugging (and therefore OPS) are all on the rise. He's 26 so this is much much better than trading for a Jim Edmonds or another aging superstar. Getting Crisp in and of itself is a step in the right direction. He's young, cheap, and athletic, and a hard worker, a sparkplug, and a fan favorite. This trade helps the Sox out in the short term because Andy Marte is probably a year away, and hopefully this guy is wrong: Link: http://www.cleveland.com/sports/plaindealer/roger_brown/index.ssf?/base/sports/1138354249287440.xml&coll=2&thispage=2 I do absolutely agree that giving up Marte for Crisp is much better than giving up Lester or Papelbon for Reed. Crisp is the better offensive player RIGHT NOW, and obviously this trade was made with the present in mind. But we also gave up Shoppach and Mota in this deal, and while Riske had a lower ERA and WHIP, his strikeout rate has declined steadily the past 3 years while Shoppach has been praised for his glove AND can hit for power, Josh Bard has never hit I don't like this scouting report (from ESPN): Granted, I'm sure Shoppach is also very slow... but I just don't have a warm toasy feeling about this deal. MAYBE Crisp is the best option out there. He certainly seems to have been the one option that's presented itself. Don't get me wrong, if this trade goes through, Crisp seems like the kind of player I'd LOVE to have... it just seems like he costs too much.

Am I still the only person who hates this trade? Johnny's FP, RF, and ZR last year: .985 2.93 .874 Coco Crisp's 2004 numbers (as a CF) .981 2.32 .865 That looks like a pretty big decline in zone rating and range factor from Coco to Johnny. ORS-- you have other defensive stats that make me feel better about this? Maybe I'm overrating Marte, but some scouts were comparing him to Manny Ramirez "without the attitude problems." Man it sucks giving him away. It just seemed like Jeremy Reed was a better defensive player with some decent offensive upside who wasn't going to cost us Marte. Plus we trade Shoppach, who hit 25 homers last year in this deal, for Josh Bard who hits like crap. Seems like we're getting ripped off here.

The Phillies. Jason Michaels (IMO) is way overrated and Rhodes had a 2.08 ERA last year. He's still a 4th outfielder even in Cleveland. Edit: bad stat.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=123182&format=text For what it's worth-- the Mohr signing is mentioned here. A minor league deal so the Sox have really nothing to lose if he doesn't make the club.