I'd put BC on the bubble. They needed to show something in their last 2 road games vs. two teams worse than them numbers wise. I was talking to SOTK after the Duke win and said they needed to win 3 of the 4 remaining games to "nearly lock" an at-large bid (they won 2 of them, lost both on the road), so as of right now they're a bubble team in my eyes, because of their marginal conference record and weak as hell non-conference schedule. The StL and Harvard losses hurt them a lot, but I don't think they're as big of a deal because they've got wins @ UNC and vs. Duke to even it out. I think they're sitting pretty winning one round in the ACC and they're a lock if they win two.
I'm personally hoping St. Mary's finds a way in, I'm a huge fan of Pat Mills, kid can ball.
I'm not sure about Arizona. One week they look like a top ten team in the nation, the next they look like Bryant University. I can't get a read on this team, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd say out as of now, maybe win a round or two and they're in.
Using your set up, the 7 bubble teams I'd take: Siena, TAMU, OK State, Penn State, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Cal.