Which Marlins Pitcher Makes the Most Sense for the Red Sox at Trade Deadline?

The Miami Marlins are currently in third in the NL East with a record of 48-53, and they are six and a half games back in the NL Wild Card. They’ve been mired in mediocrity for the last few seasons and 2025 is no different. Much like seasons past, the Marlins have pitchers that are of interest to multiple teams, including the Boston Red Sox. Notably, former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara will likely be moved at the deadline and the Sox were likely planning to kick the tires on him to see what the asking price is, but the big prize from the Marlins should be Edward Cabrera. 

I’ve written about Cabrera most recently when I named four players that Craig Breslow should have on his wishlist, but he’s been a name I’ve followed for a while. The Red Sox have reportedly sniffed around him in the past, when he was still figuring things out as a starter in the majors, but he seems to have put everything together here in 2025. His record is a bit deceptive, currently sitting at four wins and losses apiece, but his ERA is a sturdy 3.48 with 92 strikeouts over 88  innings.

In contrast, Alcantara has a 7.14 ERA with 97 strikeouts over 97 innings pitched. He's been slightly better in recent months after a truly disastrous start to the season, but the Alcantara of old he is not. He typically hovers between five and six innings pitched on most starts and hasn’t given up less than three runs since June 16. On the season, he’s given up two or less runs only six times. Cabrera has given up two or less runs ten times this season. Cabrera has also gone seven innings twice in the month of July, and into the seventh inning one other time this season, whereas Alcantara hasn’t gone into the seventh at all. While neither pitcher screams longevity, the better bet is on the younger arm.

On that note, both pitchers come with injury concern. On July 11, Cabrera left his start against the Orioles after only four innings with posterior right elbow discomfort. He went for an MRI on July 12 to try and get more answers about why the discomfort showed up and the MRI showed no major damage. He was able to throw from a mound on the Thursday after the All-Star game and again the following Sunday. He made his first start of the second half against the Padres on July 22 and allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings.

Meanwhile, Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and missed the entire 2024 season. His return to the mound was highly anticipated in 2025, but it has been less than stellar so far. The Red Sox don’t have to look far to understand both the highs and lows of pitchers returning from elbow injuries; Lucas Giolito seems to have finally turned the corner in his own rebound, though while Walker Buehler showed dominance in the 2024 postseason in short bursts, he’s looked lost more often than not on the mound for the Red Sox in 2025. Alcantara falls into the same category as Buehler, and the hope for him is that he can fully rebound as the season goes on. Any team acquiring either of these pitchers is surely taking a risk, but the smart baseball minds can build trade packages to make either pitcher a calculated risk for their organization.

The biggest determining factor in which Marlins pitcher the Red Sox should target is unquestionably their cost. While Alcantara has an award-winning pedigree, his trade value has never been lower than it is right now. He’s on the fourth year of a five-year, $56 million contract that carries him through 2026 with a club option for 2027. He’s going to cost at least one major league piece and some prospects. Cabrera, on the other hand, is in arbitration and is making $1.95 million this season. He won’t reach free agency until after 2028 as a Super Two player, so the price tag for him, even with an elbow issue that will possibly need surgical correction down the road, will be sky high. We’re talking a major league piece (or pieces) and prospects that you’ve heard of even if you don’t follow the minor leagues that closely. There would surely be debate amongst fans about if that price tag is worth it, but if the medical side of things checks out, then a pitcher like Cabrera is the exact type of calculated risk the Red Sox should take as a win-now organization. Sure, Alcantara could turn the corner in 2026, but if there is belief that the Red Sox can win this season, then he’s probably not the pitcher that is best equipped to do that. You’d be swapping Buehler’s spot in the rotation for another Buehler type in Alcantara. Cabrera can slide in as a legit number two option to take the pressure off Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, and Richard Fitts.

The Marlins are bound to receive multiple calls from all over the league, but the Red Sox have the expendable major league talent and a talented pool of prospects to get a deal done for Edward Cabrera. The elbow discomfort is typically the first sign of bigger problems with pitchers, but he’s been cleared once already this season, and as long as his medicals don't possess anything too scary, he'll likely be traded at the deadline. Let’s hope it’s to Boston.