The Red Sox Want To Play in the Deep End of the Free Agent Pitching Market

To paraphrase Smashmouth, “Well, the news starts coming and it don’t stop coming.” It seems that the Boston Red Sox have decided to kick off Thanksgiving week with a bang. To go along with the news about Willy Adames, the one and only Tyler Milliken has added this little tidbit of information:

The Red Sox are looking to add two of the top free agent pitchers, specifically targeting left-handers Max Fried and Blake Snell, to go with left-handed trade target Garrett Crochet. Either the front office is making contingency plans should they fail to land the White Sox ace or they anticipate that deal getting done then bringing in another left-handed pitcher along with Corbin Burnes. Let’s take a look at two possible scenarios. 

1. Sign Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell

This option is the biggest splash in pitching free agency the team could make. The Sox would bring in two ace-level pitchers, one righty andone lefty. Either one would slot in as the de facto ace of the rotation and what was formerly a weakness would suddenly be a strength. A rotation of Burnes, Snell, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito would be formidable. Burnes has proven throughout the 2024 season that he is more than capable of pitching in the AL East. Within the division, Burnes sported a 22.6 strikeout rate, 7.4 walk rate, and a .264 wOBA. His spray chart against the AL East adds nine more probable home runs in 2024, but as we know, the Green Monster would limit some of that damage as well. Blake Snell’s stats against the AL East show a similar strikeout percentage, 23.3%, but an elevated walk rate, 13.3%. The sample size against the division is much smaller for Snell but also had success.

2. Trade for Garrett Crochet, sign Corbin Burnes, sign Blake Snell or Max Fried 

This option would be the biggest splash in the pitching market, maybe in the history of baseball. Bringing in three ace-caliber pitchers (or at least two aces and one young pitcher with all the makings of an ace) would signal that the Red Sox are dead set on competing not just for a division title, but for a World Series title. Free agent position players would be itching to take the field behind what could be the most potent starting rotation in the majors. We’ve already broken down Burnes and Snell, so let’s look at what Crochet and Fried offer to Boston. The pitch totals against the AL East for both pitchers are close enough that I’m comfortable looking at them head-to-head. They both threw roughly 10% of their total pitches against the division and ran similar strikeout percentages, Fried at 31.6% and Crochet at 29.8%. Fried holds the edge, by a large margin, on walk percentage though, 2.5% against Crochet’s 7.0. Their wOBA runs close enough as well, Fried at .225 and Crochet at .256. Adding both Crochet and Fried to the rotation gives the Red Sox another strikeout pitcher in Crochet and a contact pitcher in Fried who still can get people to strikeout when necessary.

There’s something else in that tweet though, the last sentence: “No one is boasting about their plans to suddenly spend money and dive into the deepest end of the free-agent waters more than Red Sox.” What a line. In early October, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy went on MassLive’s Fenway Rundown podcast and I wrote up an overview of some comments that stood out to me. At the time, like most other fans, I took what Kennedy had to say with a grain of salt and mostly responded ‘prove it’ to anything that sounded like the Red Sox were willing to go big. It seems, about six weeks later, the Red Sox are on the verge of proving it. This doesn’t feel like a full-throttle moment anymore. The Boston Red Sox are in on Juan Soto, they want to bring in two of the top tier free agent pitchers, and there is interest in Willy Adames and Alex Bregman. They're an almost perfect match for the White Sox in a trade for Garrett Crochet, even if the price seems to have gone up from the original discussions earlier this offseason.

Buckle up Red Sox fans. We may be looking at just the beginning of what could be the biggest offseason in franchise history. Here’s to hoping. 

[Editor's Note: Please direct all complaints about the Smashmouth reference to @iamalexmayes.bsky.social. We had nothing to do with it.]