Old Friend Alert: The Red Sox Will Face Nathan Eovaldi On Opening Day

On Thursday, March 27, former Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi will face off against his old team as the Opening Day starter for the Texas Rangers. Garrett Crochet will pitch for the Red Sox. I’m not a betting woman by any means, but the Red Sox make solid contact when Eovaldi is on the mound. Eovaldi has a 4.07 career ERA, but over 10 starts against Boston, he's at 5.29 (although he does have a 3-1 record against the Red Sox). He's been even worse lately: over his three most recent starts against the Red Sox, Eovaldi has a 7.04 ERA.

Much like Jon Hamm and Samuel L. Jackson, Eovaldi’s breakthrough came later in his career. As a 28-year-old journeyman, he cemented himself as a postseason hero in the 2018 World Series for the Red Sox. In his career-best 2021 campaign in Boston, Eovaldi ran a 3.75 ERA and led the American League with a 2.79 FIP, earning an All-Star nod, and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. In 2023, Eovaldi carried the Rangers in the postseason, helping them win their first ever World Series title. However, that’s not to say Eovaldi isn’t showing signs of regression. Last season, Eovaldi posted a 42.6% hard-hit rate, the 12th-highest amongst qualified pitchers. This metric alone doesn’t necessarily raise any alarms, as he’s typically had trouble avoiding hard contact throughout his career, but the trend isn't encouraging.

What’s more concerning is his velocity drop. Eovaldi’s fastball functions as the backbone of his arsenal. Since 2020, his four-seamer’s velocity has steadily decreased. It sat around 95.6 mph last year.

Though he’s fared well in his 30s, maintaining above-average velocity on his four-seamer, time isn’t on his side. Per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi’s four-seamer clocked around 94 mph in two spring training outings this year. Eovaldi pitched 170 2/3 innings in 2024 and has undergone two Tommy John surgeries. All signs indicate future regression and his previous performance against the Red Sox favors an Opening Day dub for the team. 

Let's assume that the Red Sox run out an Opening Day lineup featuring Connor Wong, Triston Casas, David Hamilton, Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Rafael Devers. In both the regular season and the postseason, those nine batters have combined for 61 plate appearances against Eovaldi, hitting five homers and slashing .333/.394/.700 for an OPS of 1.094. Not too shabby, eh? With 32 PAs against Eovaldi, Bregman makes up more than half of the sample size, and he's batted .345 with two home runs. The Red Sox kick off the season with four games in Texas before traveling to Baltimore for a three-game series versus the Orioles.

If you thought the Red Sox were dealing with injury issues with their rotation, the Rangers are in an even more precarious situation. Jon Gray and Cody Bradford are projected to start the season on the injured list. Former Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom is slated to be the team's fifth starter so it’s unlikely the Red Sox will face him. That's a good thing, as the starting lineup above has a combined .192 batting average and .530 OPS against deGrom.