Jarren Duran Needs a Change of Scenery

Last week, The Athletic published a list of the top 30 trade candidates ahead of the trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox were well represented with Jarren Duran sitting in the first overall spot, Wilyer Abreu at seventh, Aroldis Chapman at 17 (as the first reliever on the list), and Walker Buehler at 19. While there are merits to trade each of these players, Duran sitting atop that list is telling, and the Red Sox need to capitalize on his position. 

It’s no secret to fans and to teams around the league that Jarren Duran is failing to live up to the hype he built during his incredible 2024 season. He’s currently slashing .257/.309/.406 with 15 stolen bases and five home runs. He’s been demoted from full-time leadoff hitter to only leading off against right-handed pitchers, sliding down to fifth or six in the lineup against lefties. Out of all qualified hitters on the roster, Duran has the lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers at .251. His wRC+? Also the lowest on the team among qualified hitters at 51. In short, he’s a liability at the plate when he faces a southpaw. If he’s on the roster, he would be better served as a late-inning replacement when the opposition has hopefully gone to a right-handed reliever. 

Where the Red Sox could really stand to rid themselves on Duran, though, is on defense. As of this writing, Duran is good for one defensive run saved, -4 outs above average, and -5.4 defense runs above average. We talked about this on the latest episode of The Talk Sox Podcast, but it’s almost unfathomable how he’s gone from a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in 2024 to the biggest defensive liability on the major league roster. Currently, Duran has five errors on the season, and you don’t have to look further than the Giants series to find errors that directly resulted in losses for the Red Sox. It would be one thing if his errors came on balls that were challenging to catch, but they often look like errors you’d see if you were watching a high school game. We’re beginning to see glimpses of the Jarren Duran who couldn’t make routine plays from yesteryear. That doesn’t bode well for the overall success of the team. While his replacement in left field won’t be up for any Gold Gloves this year, there’s room for improvement on both sides of the ball. 

On top of everything else, moving Duran opens the door for Roman Anthony to shift to left field, which is the position he needs to be playing for the big league club. Anthony looks impressive at the plate, despite a batting average below the Mendoza line. He seems primed to break out at any point with the amount of hard contact he’s making. He looks too slow to play an effective right field in Boston, though. He’s a rookie, so I’m willing to give him a large runway to get his feet under him at the big league level, but he’s going to be most impactful in left field. He roamed right field for the WooSox, but right field there features a wall modeled after the Green Monster. It makes the most sense for the team to package Duran in a trade to upgrade the starting rotation and let Roman Anthony shift across the outfield for the position he will be playing for years to come. 

I’ve long held the notion that the Red Sox don’t envision Jarren Duran as a building block of the future. They missed the prime chance to capitalize on his value by not trading him during the offseason, but they need to make up for that as we approach the deadline. You could argue that maybe Wilyer Abreu should be dealt instead, given his theoretical higher trade value. In reality, you want a huge arm in right field, and Duran doesn’t have one while Abreu does, plus Abreu is younger and has a higher ceiling than Duran, even if he hasn’t completely put all the pieces together like Duran did last year.

And that's the point. Jarren Duran likely will never sniff the season he had in 2024 again. He shouldn't be long for Boston based on the extension he agreed to — that $8 million club option should be a no-brainer for another team — so it’s time to cut rank with him and give him a chance to shine in a different market.