How Hard Should the Red Sox Pursue Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto?

Happy Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month! The Asian American and Pacific Islander community has made its mark in MLB, garnering various accolades and industry-wide recognition. In honor of the special month, I’ll be exploring potential Nippon Professional Baseball offseason acquisitions for the Red Sox. 

With the uncertainty surrounding Triston Casas' future in baseball, the organization needs a long-term solution at first base. Since 2018, the organization’s first base production ranks 25th in baseball (net 5.9 WAR). So far this season, Romy Gonzalez has produced the most WAR (0.2) at first. 

Pete Alonso headlines the upcoming free agent first base group, assuming the Mets don’t rework his contract. He’s posting insane numbers thus far and could be a potential, albeit costly, solution for the Red Sox. Other first base options include Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Rhys Hoskins (mutual option).

Moving across the infield, Alex Bregman is posting career-high numbers with the Red Sox, and he’s expected to opt out of his three-year, $120 million contract. The Cubs, Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees need upgrades at third, and there will be a stronger market for Bregman in the upcoming offseason. Eugenio Suárez and Max Muncy (club option) will also be free agents, but they’re on the wrong side of 30. Don’t fret! Not one, but two free agents beyond the domestic confines of the mainland United States address the Red Sox’s needs at first and third.

Munetaka Murakami, 26, 1B/3B/DH

Despite his oblique injury hindering his playing time this year, Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami will be the crown jewel of the 2025-26 offseason. He’s primarily listed as a third baseman, but he won’t be playing there in the majors. The Nippon League is currently in a dead-ball era, and the lack of offense props up Murakami’s career fielding stats (.943 FP) at third. On the other side of the infield, Murakami is a competent first baseman. He’s only recorded 11 errors across eight seasons at the position. His .994 career fielding percentage puts him a knock below Matt Olson, Carlos Santana, and Pete Alonso, a solid group of defenders.

Murakami is best known for his bat. In 2022, he won the Triple Crown in the Nippon League, the Central League MVP for the second time in his career, and he hit 56 home runs, marking a new NPB record. He sees virtually every pitch type well.

One of my concerns with Murakami is his plate discipline. He holds a 29.5% career strikeout rate. His zone swing rate has remained stagnant throughout his career, while his whiff rate has dramatically increased over the past four years. He posted the worst contact rate in the Nippon League between 2023 (65.7%) and 2024 (62.7%).  

Speaking of velocity, Murakami also struggles against high-velocity fastballs. Only 6% of his home runs were hit off fastballs over 150 km/h (93.21 mph). Nearly a quarter (24.79%) of his home runs came from fastballs below 149 km/h (below 92.58 mph). Back in 2022, Fangraphs noted that the average fastball velocity gap between the Nippon and Major League is slowly narrowing. Murakami’s lack of plate discipline, high strikeout numbers, and issues with high-velocity pitches raise some alarms for his transition to the majors. However, the drop off in his stats coincides with the NPB’s dead ball era, beginning in 2023. Even in an "off" year, Murakami hit 33 home runs - two more than the team’s leader, Tyler O'Neill (32), in 2024.

Kazuma Okamoto, 29 1B/3B

Kazuma Okamoto is another NPB free-agent target for the Red Sox. Like Murakami, Okamoto plays first (.996 FP) and third (.966 FP), though his defense is more sound than Murakami’s. Okamoto provides power as a righty, hitting at least 27 home runs per season since 2018. He doesn’t strike out often (16.5% career K-rate), and he fares well versus fastballs greater than 150 km/h, slashing .277/.368/.528 (58 RBIs, 19 home runs, and 150 wRC+). Okamoto is about four years older than Murakami, so there’s some concern about how he’ll hold up as he ages. He’s currently missing part of the 2025 season due to a left elbow injury.

Unlike Rōki Sasaki, Murakami and Okamoto will not be subject to international bonus pool restrictions. Both players are over 25 years old and have more than six years of service time in NPB, making them eligible to sign MLB contracts without limitations. Money talks, and the Red Sox have the financial resources to pursue either player aggressively. While their international scouting presence in Asia isn’t as strong as the Cubs or Dodgers, the organization maintains a presence in Japan. Following Sportsology Inc.’s internal front-office audit, international scouts Kento Matsumoto (Japan) and Won-Sang Lee (South Korea) are reportedly still employed by the Red Sox. Notably, Matsumoto helped scout Masataka Yoshida.

That said, no matter what scouting and analysts’ reports suggest, we can’t come to a consensus on an international free agent’s performance in MLB until they get meaningful playing time. Early evaluations of Masataka Yoshida suggested that he could be a better player than Seiya Suzuki, but Yoshida’s tenure in Boston has been marred by injuries. Now in the third year of his five-year, $90 million contract, he’s only appeared in 248 games, whereas Suzuki is a well-rounded contributor with his bat and glove. 

Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are currently missing playing time due to injuries. Given that the Red Sox already have a costly, oft-injured Japanese player on their team, potentially adding another one carries significant risk. Still, both Murakami and Okamoto offer more defensive value and greater power potential than Yoshida. Risk often correlates with reward, and 30+ home run-caliber first basemen don’t hit the market every offseason. At the very least, the Red Sox should be doing their due diligence and actively monitoring both players ahead of a key offseason for their emerging young core.