Free Agent Rumors: A Juan Soto Update and What It Means for the Red Sox

On Thursday evening, while most of America was sprawled on the couch attempting to digest its turkey, the Red Sox rumor mill cranked into high gear. Rumors that Juan Soto was about to sign with Boston ricocheted around the internet at lightning speed, even as Jeff Passan, the game’s most prolific newsbreaker, tried to pour cold water on them. “I am thankful for reporters who don’t make up stories,” he wrote. “I am also thankful that Juan Soto has not agreed to any contract, which means you can get off Twitter and go spend the holiday with your family.” To be clear, Passan was correct: There is no credible indication that Soto has made up his mind to sign with the Red Sox. I haven’t provided linked to any of those reports or mentioned any of their authors by name because I don’t trust them.

That said, as our Matthew Lenz pointed out on Friday, one rumor did seem more credible. Héctor Gómez reported the size of the offer the Sox made to Soto: 13 years and $625. There’s no way to verify Gómez’s information, and depending on how the next few weeks go, we may never get a true accounting of the offer the Sox made to Soto, but that number is at least worth keeping in mind right now. However, even if Gómez is 100% correct, if the Red Sox do land Soto, the contract will likely be bigger. That $625 million number would just be an initial offer, with negotiations to follow.

Also on Friday, MLB Trade Rumors published a full update on the Soto situation, and I’d like to go quickly go over it with you. First off, it confirmed the five teams rumored to be the top bidders Soto: the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. The Dodgers, having already landed Blake Snell (and already possessing enough salary obligations to bankrupt a medium-sized nation) are considered somewhat less likely, while Phillies could become more serious in their pursuit, but for now those are the five contenders.

Second, the MLBTR article reinforced the timeframe. Super-agent Scott Boras, who represents Soto, asked teams to submit their initial offers by Thanksgiving. That timing makes Gómez’s report a bit more believable, as it seems like he reported the size of the offer right after the Sox officially made it. Regardless, Boras and the quintet of Soto’s suitors are certain to be in intense negotiations all week. Multiple reporters have indicated a growing consensus that Soto might make his decision during the Winter Meetings in Dallas next week.

The Red Sox had a sit-down meeting with Soto in California three weeks ago, sending chairman Tom Werner, president Sam Kennedy, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and manager Alex Cora. David Ortiz was supposed to attend, but a family matter forced him to sit the trip out. Regardless, part of the team’s pitch at the meeting was to emphasize its history of Dominican stars like Ortiz and Pedro Martinez. Soto has also reportedly been asking teams about the state of their farm systems, as he wants to make sure that wherever he signs, he has a chance to win over the long-term. That should certainly benefit the Red Sox, as they are widely considered to have one of the best farm systems in the game.

We should close with some simple logic. As Alex Speier sensibly reported, the likelihood is that Soto signs elsewhere. There are five teams in on Soto, so if each has an equal chance at landing him, then there’s an 80% chance he doesn’t sign in Boston. Even if their chances of signing Soto are twice as high as the other teams, that would still mean there's a 67% chance he signs elsewhere. While it’s thrilling that the Red Sox might land a generational talent – not to mention the closest thing to Ted Williams since Ted Williams – it’s encouraging that they’re still in the running. The team is clearly serious about getting better and is willing to spend money to do so. That’s a good thing, regardless of where Soto ends up. Either way, it sounds more and more like the Soto sweepstakes will be over in a week or two. We can make it. We can make it.