Examining the Red Sox's Playoff Scenarios and Schedule

Upcoming Schedule

The Red Sox will spend 50% of September on the road. At the beginning of the month, they’ll be playing the Diamondbacks and Athletics on the West Coast. They return home to play the Yankees and the Athletics (again). Towards the end of September, they play the Rays in “Tampa” and the Blue Jays in Toronto. They finish the season at home with a three-game series versus the Tigers.

• September 1st-3rd: Guardians (Home)
• September 5th-7th: Diamondbacks (Away)
• September 8th to 10th: Athletics (Away)
• September 12th to 14th: Yankees (Home)
• September 16th to 18th: Athletics (Home)
• September 19th to 21st: Rays (Away)
• September 23rd to 25th: Blue Jays (Away)
• September 26th to 27th: Tigers (Home)

Strength of Schedule

According to FanGraphs' Playoff Odds, the Red Sox’s strength of schedule ranks fifth (.502) among all American League teams. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees (.483) sport the second-easiest strength of schedule in baseball. First place goes to the Padres with .465.

The Mariners (current holder of the third AL Wild Card spot) also have an advantage in their schedule. They play the Rays, Braves, Cardinals, Angels, Royals, Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers in September. I’ve heard some pundits float around the idea that the Rangers could make a late playoff push. I’m less bullish on them. Old friend Nathan Eovaldi (rotator cuff strain) is likely finished for the season, and Jacob deGrom’s second-half splits also aren’t too promising.

Read How to Determine Playoff Tiebreakers by Anthony Castrovince for more information on the following scenarios. 

Head-to-Head Record: What are the Red Sox’s records against current playoff teams?

Toronto triumphs over the Red Sox in any tiebreaker scenario. Fortunately, the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Yankees, Astros, Royals, and Rangers. They are 3-3 with the Mariners this season, and I’ll touch upon Seattle in the next section. If the Rangers made a late playoff push and their record was tied with the Red Sox at the end of the season, they would make the playoffs over the Red Sox.

I’m not too worried about the Yankees. Come mid-September, in the worst-case scenario, even if the Yankees swept the Red Sox, the Red Sox would still hold the tiebreaker advantage.

Intradivision Record: How did each team fare against their respective division?

The Red Sox are currently ranked first in intradivision record among AL Wild Card Contenders. As long as they don’t face-plant in their nine remaining games vs the AL East in September, they will win this tiebreaker over the Mariners.

Interdivision Record

Let’s imagine the Mariners and the Red Sox finish the season with the same intradivision record. This tiebreaker would be determined based on their record against the remaining portion of the American League (combined record vs the Central and West). I’ve also included the Yankees for reference.

As you can see, the Red Sox are at a significant disadvantage here. They have 12 remaining games against the AL Central/West, Guardians (three games), Athletics (six games), and Tigers (three games), so there’s some opportunity for the Red Sox to gain ground on the Mariners in September. Since this tiebreaker scenario is less than optimal for the Red Sox, hopefully things don’t whittle down to it.

2025 MLB Postseason Schedule: Breaking down situational outcomes

If the Red Sox finish with the first AL Wild Card spot, they would play the second AL Wild Card team, which is currently the Yankees. Given the team’s 8-2 record vs the Yankees this season, I’d love this scenario. They also would have the home-field advantage over the Yankees in a best-of-three series. 

If the Red Sox win the Wild Card series, they’d go on to play the winner of the first seed in the American League. This is currently the Blue Jays, but it could be the Tigers. Both teams are formidable opponents, and the Red Sox haven’t fared well against them this season. 

In conclusion, there’s still over a month of baseball to be played. As Red Sox fans, we know the tide can turn quickly. The optimist in me believes the team still has a chance at making a run for the division. After witnessing the team collapse every September over the past three years, it’d be nice for a change of scenery.

• September 2022: 12-14
• September 2023: 8-19
• September 2024: 11-15
• September 2025: ?

Be sure to follow along with the Red Sox’s playoff push right here on Talk Sox!