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    After Acquiring Willson Contreras, the Red Sox Should Pivot Away from Alex Bregman

    The trade for Willson Contreras solved one problem for the Boston Red Sox, but still leaves a hole at third base. Is it time to buy into the youth movement and move on from Alex Bregman?

    Alex Mayes
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    In a pre-Christmas gift to Boston Red Sox fans everywhere, Craig Breslow made a trade to bring All-Star first baseman Willson Contreras to Massachusetts in exchange for RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Yhoiker Fajardo, and RHP Blake Aita. I wrote about how Contreras would be an excellent trade addition during the Winter Meetings, and now first base has been solidified for the next two seasons. And yet, the team's work on the infield isn't done — there’s still a hole at the hot corner.

    While talks are still ongoing with Alex Bregman in free agency, there are other teams in the mix for him. Coming back to Boston makes a lot of sense for both sides. When healthy, Bregman thrived playing at Fenway Park and his veteran leadership helped young players like Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer ease their way into the big leagues. Bringing in Contreras, another veteran and hitter that brings a swing perfect for Fenway, should help in the negotiations with Bregman, but not in the typical way. Having Contreras on the roster zaps quite a bit of the negotiating power that Bregman’s larger-than-life agent, Scott Boras, has in the ongoing talks.

    Before Contreras, the Red Sox needed Bregman’s bat. Now, though? They still need him, but not in a "our season hinges on this guy" kind of way. While it’s obvious that the Red Sox should add another bat in addition to Contreras, it no longer has to be Bregman's stick. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Red Sox to pivot to someone younger like Bo Bichette, especially considering he’s younger and is currently projected to make a similar amount of money on the open market? He’s also informed teams that he’s willing to move off of shortstop, a position he desperately needs to abandon. Moving Bichette to second base helps to solve the infield puzzle and guarantees Gold Glove center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela stays where he is needed most. 

    Bichette fits the timeline of the Red Sox. He’s 28 and would absolutely rake at Fenway. He's a spray hitter with power to all fields who currently plays in a (relatively) pitcher-friendly stadium in Toronto. Even if his power doesn't push past 25 home runs he's led the league in total hits twice. The Red Sox need a guy who is comfortable putting the ball in play and driving in runs, while also putting himself in a position to score. Moving him to second base would allow for Trevor Story to continue playing shortstop and would slide Marcelo Mayer into the starting third base role. Trusting Mayer to stay healthy for a full season is risky, but he’s a top prospect for a reason. With multiple reps at third, he should get his feet under him faster than most.

    Should that not pan out, the Red Sox still have four outfielders with only three outfield spots to fill. Trading one of them for a third baseman could be an option down the line. The organization may see Mayer as the heir apparent at shortstop, but he has already proven that he can handle the hot corner, albeit in a small sample.

    The Red Sox fixed the revolving door at first base with the trade for Willson Contreras. Pivoting away from Alex Bregman to Bo Bichette would fix the gaping hole that has been second base since Dustin Pedroia retired. If the Red Sox are serious about competing in the long term, buying into the youth movement instead of giving six years to an aging veteran is the way to go.

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    It's always a great solution to bring in a 3rd first baseman when you have a young one in Casas and a converted one in Campbell.  Contreras is rapidly trending downward in WAR with his career peak in 2021 at 4.2, 2022 at 3.8, 2023 at 3.3, 2024 at 3.0 all while catching.  Then he stops catching and his WAR continues downward to 2.5 at age 33. 

    With stars like Miggy and Pulols struggling to hit after age 33 I am not optimistic that this was even close to a good deal.  Miggy's war at age 28-30 was over 7.0, then at ages 31, 32 and 33 he provided WARs of 5.1, 4.9 and 4.9.  He never produced another WAR over 1.0!!  After dropping from 4.2 to 3.0 before moving from catcher to 1B and with a 2.5 WAR at 1B, why should we expect the decline to stop?  There are no signs of that happening and Miggy dropped from 4.9 to under 1.0.  Contreras is at 2.5 right now.  Nothing shows it will rise so was this a good deal rather than extending Bregman a few years at $25 Million his current REAL value?  Bo Bichette is gone now, and it would be insane to play Rafaela anywhere other than RF if Duran and Anthony start in CF and LF.  Mayer can handle 2B with Bregman back at 3B or Campbell if Mayer fails.  Casas is either the 1B of the future or next year Breslow will need to get yet another over-priced 1B to replace Contreras.  Maybe he could be used to teach the two bad hitting catchers to play better defense.  Or maybe, the highly likely 1.0 WAR will stay at 2.5 like last year and Casas can be traded later in the year, but I wouldn't bet on it.  Nothing was fixed with the Contreras trade except the clubhouse got an upgrade back to the level it was at with Bregman.  Contreras is likely to play no more than 108 games as his career suggests.  He's a small Band-Aid.

    This is not time to pivot.  Let's call the Contreras deal insurance and go double down on Bregman to assure the team can compete.  Also, they need to trade Abreu and Yoshida as wasted resources that could help other teams.  Even if you only get prospects, it's worth it so the upside potential of minor league players can be realized.  If you think you will eat money with Yoshida, have Abreu's sparkling GGs off set it so no more debt is accumulated.  Yoshida has one less year on his contract!!

    With Story having only played one season and Mayer being injured every season, minor league depth is likely to be needed.  So be prepared to try out Campbell, Arias and Romero when Story and Mayer end up on the IL.



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