Red Sox Free Agency Wish List: A.J. Minter Is More Than Just A Consolation Prize

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Now that the Boston Red Sox have the opportunity to strengthen their bullpen via free agency, acquiring left-hander Steven Okert would be one of my favorite moves this winter. That would further improve the bullpen’s left-handed profile alongside Erik Miller and Aroldis Chapman as its main pieces. Over the last two seasons, Okert recorded the fourth-highest fWAR (2.7) among left-handed relievers, surpassed only by Adrian Morejón (5.1), undoubtedly the top reliever available in free agency, Chapman (4.2) and Josh Hader (3.0).

Recently, my colleague Nick John offered a look at how Okert would fit into the Red Sox bullpen, so I have been thinking about a second-hand alternative if the team cannot acquire him. In that hypothetical context, I think 32-year-old A.J. Minter would be an interesting option as a solid middle reliever, without standing out among the most expensive relievers on the free-agent market.

Minter began the 2026 season with the New York Mets and then moved on to reinforce the Twins’ bullpen at the trade deadline, completing 48 relief appearances, his highest workload since making 70 relief appearances for the Atlanta Braves in 2023. Between 2024 and 2025, he missed a large part of both seasons due to injuries to his left hip, which required surgery in 2024, and his left latissimus dorsi muscle, a tear of which ended his 2025 season.

So, his return this year was still limited by his recovery, but Minter managed to make adjustments and showed improvements, especially in his control, reducing his walk rate from 11.4% (2025) to 4.3% (2026). His streaks, sometimes prolonged, of losing command have followed him throughout his career, but in his most recent qualified seasons, between 2021 and 2023, he continued to demonstrate his ability to strike out batters, generate whiffs and avoid hard contact, finishing in at least the 89th, 96th and 85th percentiles in consecutive years.

This season, Minter finished with the highest xFIP (4.08) of his career in seasons in which he has pitched at least 40 innings. The most concerning point in that regard is that his strikeouts have declined slightly: his whiff rate dropped from his historical average of 30.7% to 23.4%, while his home run-to-fly ball rate jumped to 13.6%, well above his historical mark of 8.7%. Despite Minter increasing his fastball’s average velocity from 92.9 to 94.0 mph when he moved to Minnesota, the home run rate also rose from 11.4% with the Mets to 16.1%. Of course, when inning samples are so short, any bad stretch can distort the results, and Minter was no exception.

The southpaw began the season without allowing home runs to the first 50 batters he faced, an impressive stretch in which he also did not allow any runs in his first 14 innings with the Mets. Of the nine home runs he allowed all season, five came in a span of 12 relief appearances between July 3 and August 5, precisely when the trade deadline was approaching. In those 12 games, the Mets finished with a 2-10 record, while he recorded a 5.56 ERA and a puzzling 7.60 FIP in his matchups against 52 opponents.

Fortunately for him, most of the home runs he allowed were solo shots and, after getting past that slump, he managed to stabilize a little more. Although he allowed another four home runs the rest of the way, he finished with a 1-0 record in his last 21 relief appearances, with one save in three opportunities, nine holds and a 2.70 ERA.

The overall results were not bad, since in 37 of his 48 relief appearances Minter did not allow any runs and in 20 of them he held his opponents hitless. His 2.38 ERA was the the fourth-lowest among left-handed relievers with at least 50 innings pitched since 2025, and he prevented 73% of inherited runners from scoring in the 15 situations he faced. Therefore, there are still reasons that make me think he can be useful in a bullpen like the Red Sox’s, where he would not be the centerpiece or the pitcher expected to handle a high volume of work, but would instead be tasked with shutting down left-handed batters in key moments.

View full article