Analyzing Red Sox's Position Within Loaded American League Playoff Picture Weeks Before Trade Deadline

[Sam Stargell]

Less than two weeks out from the trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox are in the midst of their hottest run since 1948. This stretch of 14 straight wins has vaulted them back into the AL playoff race after a dismal start to the year. Who would have thought they’d be here at this point? After watching Alex Cora get fired, losing ace Garrett Crochet and up-an-coming star Roman Anthony to the injured list, and an uninspired offense through the first half of the season, many fans nearly threw in the towel. 

But here we are. The Red Sox hold sole possession of the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League. In the AL East, they are still a sizable six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.5 games behind the second-place New York Yankees. But hey, that is a huge leap from the whopping 14.5 games behind they were just one month ago on June 20

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to tip his hand as to his trade deadline approach. What we do know is that where the team stands in comparison to the rest of their division and the American League overall will play a big factor in what the front office decides to do. 

Organizational Outlook

I have mixed feelings when a front office says that they are making big internal additions in reference to having players come back from the IL. While I hope that isn't what we hear from the Red Sox in the coming weeks, the list of players who have the potential to return is extensive. With Ranger Suarez, Connelly Early, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Garrett Crochet slated to return in phases between now and the end of the season, it is safe to say that the internal reinforcements will definitely help. 

Even without them, the roster currently at the disposal of manager Chad Tracy has been the catalyst behind the recent run. They will lose, eventually. But if they can keep playing well, taking advantage of opportunities, and continue to hit for power at this higher rate, they will have a chance to play themselves into October. That will be easier said than done, especially since the AL is wide open this season and a lot of teams will be looking to add at the deadline, stay in the mix, and make a push for a wild card spot. Speaking of which...

American League East Standing

As is usually the case, the AL East has several of MLB’s leading contenders within the division. We know about the New York Yankees. They will have a winning record (33 straight years), make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. They have held their own without Aaron Judge so far, but they need him back healthy to have the best chance down the stretch. What we also know about the Yankees is that they will look to make a splash at the deadline. Consider them a true contender. 

The Tampa Bay Rays, fresh off being swept in four games by the Red Sox, still hold the American League’s best record. With talent development, a young star like Junior Caminero getting MVP consideration, and a seasoned manager like Kevin Cash, the Rays will be fighting until the end. Look for them to add modestly at the deadline as well. The way that they have played this year should give them enough confidence to push for a deep run in October. 

While the Red Sox have leap-frogged the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays in the standings, they cannot be counted out. The Orioles were on their own seven-game winning streak until they lost to the Red Sox on Monday. As for the team north of the border, well, they have largely the same roster that took them to a World Series appearance last season. If they become healthy and get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to start hitting again, they too have the talent to make a run. 

To summarize, no team in the AL East is out of contention yet. They could all look to add at the deadline. While only time will tell, the Red Sox have their work cut out for them in this division. 

American League Wild Card Standing

Zooming out to the rest of the American league, many teams are vying for those coveted three Wild Card slots. Right now, the AL East holds two of them thanks to the Yankees and Red Sox. The AL Central holds one via the Cleveland Guardians, but they are only a game back of the Chicago White Sox in the division, so those two teams may fluctuate. The AL West-leading Seattle Mariners are the only team in that division to hold a playoff spot. 

Who is outside the playoffs currently but still within striking distance? For the sake of this discussion, lets consider teams within six games still in contention. With that said, there is a huge crowd of six more teams still in the mix including the Texas Rangers, Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Blue Jays, and Detroit Tigers. 

A whopping 12 teams in the American League still believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. In other words, 80% of the league could be looking to add talent at the deadline to make a push. While I don’t believe all of those teams are in the same tier, that is a lot to sort through whether you are a fan or a front office. 

Each of these teams has a reason to believe. Let's start with the two 2025 playoff teams looking to return. The Blue Jays, if they can turn things around, seem like they have the highest potential to threaten the teams currently in. The talent on their roster, star power, and experience from a World Series appearance are all potential beacons of hope. As for the Tigers, they have the best pitcher on the planet in Tarik Skubal, a +31 run differential, and star rookie Kevin McGonigle. 

The hunger to get back into the playoffs doesn’t end there. The Orioles have played good baseball as of late and have a lot of thump in their lineup. The Minnesota Twins are getting a career season out of Byron Buxton. The Houston Astros have Yordan Alvarez, who is the current favorite for the AL MVP award and has a chance at the batting triple crown. Lastly, the Rangers have a strong rotation and a well-rounded lineup capable of hitting for power and average. 

In recent days though, no team has more reason to believe than the Boston Red Sox. They have one of the best rotations in MLB. That may still be true even if they trade Sonny Gray ahead of the deadline. They have a +46 run differential. They are playing better defense of late, something that the teams of recent years under Alex Cora chased but couldn't attain. First baseman Willson Contreras may be the signing of the offseason across all of MLB. For a team that was down and nearly completely out just a month ago, they are now in as good a position as any. 

Grab the popcorn, the stretch run is going to be one heck of a show. 

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