Connelly Early's Strong Start Isn't A Mirage, But There Are Reasons For Concern

[Alex Mayes]

Connelly Early has made two starts on the season and, for the most part, has been just as good as the front office hoped he would be when they put him in the starting rotation over Johan Oviedo at the conclusion of camp. His first start against the Reds saw him post 5 1/3 innings pitched while giving up one earned run, issuing two walks, and striking out six. His second outing against the Padres wasn’t quite as clean, as he gave up two earned runs four walks, and four strikeouts over four frames. He admitted after that start that he was having trouble gripping the ball due to the cold that set in during the weekend of the home opener. If we dive into his two starts, we start to get a clearer picture of the pitching program Andrew Bailey has Early working on.

Early is featuring his four-seam fastball 34% of the time, his changeup 24%, curve 17%, slider 14%, sinker 9%, and sweeper 2% so far this season. That four-seam isn’t going to overpower anyone most of the time -- it averages 93.8 mph -- but he can ramp it up to 97 at times. His changeup should operate as his true-out pitch while he relies on the curve and slider to keep hitters from guessing between his top two options. His fastballs, both the four-seam and the sinker, fill up the zone while he’s able to nibble around the edges of the plate with his changeup.

There are things to be concerned about when you dive under the hood of Early’s first two starts, though. The most glaring thing, and it was likely aided by the cold weather during his first home start of the year, is that he’s struggling with his command early in the season. His breaking balls can be effective set-up pitches, but only when they are thrown for strikes earlier in the count. In two starts, he’s been struggling to locate them. In four starts in 2025, he issued four total walks. So far in 2026, he’s already at six walks. Once again, four of those walks came in the game against the Padres where he was struggling to grip the ball, but it’s something to keep an eye on throughout the season.

Early’s Savant page is mostly blue, which should give all of us a bit of pause for concern. His expected ERA, 5.12, ranks in the 27th percentile, and his expected batting average, .246, ranks in the 43rd percentile. He’s inducing a good amount of chases outside the zone (32%), but his whiff rate is a paltry 21.2%. What all of this tells us is that Early has gotten fairly lucky with balls put in play and, somehow, has been bailed out by the defense behind him to keep his actual numbers down.

That’s not to say that Early is going to implode during his next few starts, but the fact that he’s pitching so far above his expected numbers does suggest that hitters are seeing him better this year now that the scouting report is out on him.

Remember, Early was incredibly impressive during spring training, earning his way into the starting rotation. In his two starts this season, he’s been effective but has struggled with location and consistency, much like every young starter does. The bright side is that he’s set to pitch in more inviting weather in his next start in St. Louis, and Busch Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, so he has the opportunity to bounce back in a big way against a rebuilding team.

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[davidrw]

Early’s results so far look promising, especially with his ability to limit runs and generate strikeouts. At the same time, the control issues and walks are worth watching, particularly as competition gets tougher. External factors like weather can play a role, but consistency with command will likely determine how sustainable this start really is.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Once again, the writer missed the mark by using fake data from Savant.  It should have been clear to anyone in the stadium that Early's last start had to do with the wind.  As a pitcher he needs to adjust to the different conditions presented at Fenway Park.  The wind blew from first to third making his breaking pitches exaggerated from left to right causing him to miss the inside corner on righties and outside corner to lefties.  You can call it a lack of control and worry about it, or you can factually without bogus Savant numbers evaluate it as a learning experience for a young pitcher who isn't all that familiar with the impact of wind at Fenway.  Had the wind been just the opposite going from 3rd to 1st his breaking pitches would have stayed straighter than usual and his control would have been good, but his pitches would have been more hittable.  These are lessons all pitchers have to learn and this kid is the real deal.  The biggest concern to me is fighting the propaganda presented by uninformed writers.  Guys like Cora who know NOTHING about pitching might read something like this article and draw incorrect conclusions that will impact his pathetic decision making.  

Next time, write about things you know about.  This kid Early is awesome and will be the ace of the staff in the near future because he's like a young version of Crochet only better.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Once again, the writer missed the mark by using fake data from Savant.  It should have been clear to anyone in the stadium that Early's last start had to do with the wind.  As a pitcher he needs to adjust to the different conditions presented at Fenway Park.  The wind blew from first to third making his breaking pitches exaggerated from left to right causing him to miss the inside corner on righties and outside corner to lefties.  You can call it a lack of control and worry about it, or you can factually without bogus Savant numbers evaluate it as a learning experience for a young pitcher who isn't all that familiar with the impact of wind at Fenway.  Had the wind been just the opposite going from 3rd to 1st his breaking pitches would have stayed straighter than usual and his control would have been good, but his pitches would have been more hittable.  These are lessons all pitchers have to learn and this kid is the real deal.  The biggest concern to me is fighting the propaganda presented by uninformed writers.  Guys like Cora who know NOTHING about pitching might read something like this article and draw incorrect conclusions that will impact his pathetic decision making.  

Next time, write about things you know about.  This kid Early is awesome and will be the ace of the staff in the near future because he's like a young version of Crochet only better.

As a follow-up to what I continue to say........  FIRE CORA!!!!!  Early goes into the 5th inning and gets the first guy easily and gets pulled at 86 pitches.  WHY?  Because Cora has no idea what a pitcher can do and what indicates he needs to come out.  This clown did the same thing to Sale back when Boston had Sale and he underperformed compared to ALL OTHER YEARS of his career.  That's not on Sale it's on the worst manager in the game, CORA.  Tonight, Early should have finished the inning and stayed under 100 pitches and keep the team in the lead.  Instead, for the fourth time this season, Cora pulled the starter and brought in the WRONG reliever, and they lost the lead and eventually the game.

It's time to fire Cora!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Please put fans out of their misery and get a REAL MANAGER!!!!!!

This is a 4 and 8 team and half the losses came from poor relief choices by Cora.  Tonight will be the 5th loss due to CORA and the team only has 4 wins!!!  FIRE CORA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GIVE THE RED SOX A CHANCE TO WIN JUST LIKE YOU DID WITH MOVING DEVERS.  BOTH CORA AND DEVERS ARE BAD FOR THE CLUBHOUSE, THE RESULTS OF GAMES AND THE IMAGE OF THE BALL CLUB.