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Connelly Early has made two starts on the season and, for the most part, has been just as good as the front office hoped he would be when they put him in the starting rotation over Johan Oviedo at the conclusion of camp. His first start against the Reds saw him post 5 1/3 innings pitched while giving up one earned run, issuing two walks, and striking out six. His second outing against the Padres wasn’t quite as clean, as he gave up two earned runs four walks, and four strikeouts over four frames. He admitted after that start that he was having trouble gripping the ball due to the cold that set in during the weekend of the home opener. If we dive into his two starts, we start to get a clearer picture of the pitching program Andrew Bailey has Early working on.
Early is featuring his four-seam fastball 34% of the time, his changeup 24%, curve 17%, slider 14%, sinker 9%, and sweeper 2% so far this season. That four-seam isn’t going to overpower anyone most of the time -- it averages 93.8 mph -- but he can ramp it up to 97 at times. His changeup should operate as his true-out pitch while he relies on the curve and slider to keep hitters from guessing between his top two options. His fastballs, both the four-seam and the sinker, fill up the zone while he’s able to nibble around the edges of the plate with his changeup.
There are things to be concerned about when you dive under the hood of Early’s first two starts, though. The most glaring thing, and it was likely aided by the cold weather during his first home start of the year, is that he’s struggling with his command early in the season. His breaking balls can be effective set-up pitches, but only when they are thrown for strikes earlier in the count. In two starts, he’s been struggling to locate them. In four starts in 2025, he issued four total walks. So far in 2026, he’s already at six walks. Once again, four of those walks came in the game against the Padres where he was struggling to grip the ball, but it’s something to keep an eye on throughout the season.
Early’s Savant page is mostly blue, which should give all of us a bit of pause for concern. His expected ERA, 5.12, ranks in the 27th percentile, and his expected batting average, .246, ranks in the 43rd percentile. He’s inducing a good amount of chases outside the zone (32%), but his whiff rate is a paltry 21.2%. What all of this tells us is that Early has gotten fairly lucky with balls put in play and, somehow, has been bailed out by the defense behind him to keep his actual numbers down.
That’s not to say that Early is going to implode during his next few starts, but the fact that he’s pitching so far above his expected numbers does suggest that hitters are seeing him better this year now that the scouting report is out on him.
Remember, Early was incredibly impressive during spring training, earning his way into the starting rotation. In his two starts this season, he’s been effective but has struggled with location and consistency, much like every young starter does. The bright side is that he’s set to pitch in more inviting weather in his next start in St. Louis, and Busch Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, so he has the opportunity to bounce back in a big way against a rebuilding team.







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