What To Expect When You're Expecting (A Cy Young Award): Garrett Crochet Has Weight of Red Sox on His Shoulders

[Brandon Glick]

As dedicated sports fans and analysts, there's something of a bizarre phenomenon that takes place once a player reaches a certain stratosphere: We stop talking about them. I don't mean literally, of course. People didn't stop wearing David Ortiz jerseys or magically forget the historic ascendancy unfolding every time Pedro Martinez took the mound. But articles breaking down the minutiae of a player's stats or endless forum discussions about their value to the team are often reserved for those on the fringes of a casual fan's mind — the "X-factors" of the world, as we've come to call them. Sometimes, a pitcher or hitter becomes so good that their greatness is inevitable.

Last season, Garrett Crochet entered that tier of greatness. He was so singularly dominant — so guaranteed to put the Boston Red Sox in a position to win every time he took the mound — that it became easy to take him for granted. Leading the American League in workload (205 1/3 innings), the War Pig accumulated an MLB-leading 255 strikeouts. His 2.59 ERA and 6.3 bWAR were enough to earn him a second-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, behind only back-to-back champion Tarik Skubal.

That is now the standard to which Crochet must adhere. No matter which outlet or sportsbook you choose to get your odds from, you'll find the Red Sox's ace as one of two favorites for the Junior Circuit's top pitching award this season, alongside Skubal. No one else comes within their vicinity, with Jacob deGrom and Hunter Brown serving as dark-horse options as the next-biggest favorites on the list.

That's awe-inspiring company to be a part of. Crochet joins Skubal, Paul Skenes (reigning NL Cy Young) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (reigning World Series MVP) as one of the four best pitchers in the sport. Even on a pitching staff that's set to introduce All-Stars Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez to the fold this year, the incumbent southpaw is the unquestioned leader of the group.

The projection systems offer similar hope and hype for an encore. Every notable model foresees at least 5.0 fWAR worth of production from Crochet in 2026, and even those that aren't overtly bullish on him still can't help but prognosticate greatness.

Garrett Crochet 2026 Projections
Steamer: 193 innings, 3.02 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 30.8% strikeout rate, 5.6 fWAR
ZiPS: 184 1/3 innings, 2.78 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 30.7% strikeout rate, 5.5 fWAR
Composite: 187 innings, 2.98 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 30.4% strikeout rate, 5.6 fWAR

There were already considerable expectations on his shoulders after the trade with the Chicago White Sox, and even those ballooned after he inked a $170 million extension to remain in Boston for the foreseeable future. Now, Crochet is facing do-or-die pressure every time he steps to the mound. Anything short of another top-three finish in Cy Young voting will register as disappointing, as insane as that is to say during the first week of March.

Remember, none of the Red Sox's previous southpaw aces (Chris Sale, David Price, and Jon Lester) were able to win the award in Boston. Rick Porcello's questionable victory in 2016 is the last one the franchise has had; before him, it was Pedro's two-year run in 1999 and 2000. MVPs have been nearly twice as common as Cy Youngs in team history (11 to 7), and that includes a man (Roger Clemens) who won both a combined four times. Asking Crochet to win the top pitching award — while having to out-duel an all-time great in Skubal for it — is probably asking to be disappointed.

But that's what being great is all about: having to exceed even the most outlandish expectations. Crochet has earned his place in this discussion. The projection systems clearly favor his chances to repeat his breakout 2025 season.

As he's soon to find out, though, there's only one thing more difficult than reaching the mountaintop: maintaining your place atop it.

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