Why Other Teams May Not Value Jarren Duran as Highly as the Red Sox

[Alex Mayes]

The Boston Red Sox have placed a high price tag on outfielder Jarren Duran. They are reportedly looking for a top of the rotation starter in exchange for the 2024 All-Star Game MVP. It's fine to place a premium value on a premium player, but the rest of the league isn’t valuing Duran nearly as high as the Red Sox are, at least not yet.

As the offseason drags on, more teams could come calling about Duran as they miss out on their primary free agent targets. That should drive the return package up, but perhaps not to the level the Sox are seeking. For a player who was a legitimate MVP candidate just 12 months ago, why is that the case?

First, there was regression from his stellar 2024 campaign. In '24, Duran slashed .285/.342/.492 with 75 RBIs, 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases, an .834 OPS, 6.8 fWAR, and a 131 wRC+. Almost everything dropped in '25 though—Duran slashed .256/.332/.442 with 84 RBIs, 16 home runs, 24 stolen bases, a .774 OPS, a 3.9 fWAR, and a 111 wRC+. By all accounts, he had a really good season, but the drop in performance was noticeable to anyone paying attention. Manager Alex Cora ended up dropping Duran in the lineup late in the season in hopes that would help him right the ship, and it seemed to work. He was getting on base more and driving more runs in, but it may have been too little too late.

In addition to the overall statistical decline, his plate approach was less than stellar. He swung at more pitches outside the zone than he ever has in his career, 31.6%, while swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone, 62.5%. His overall contact percentage was the lowest it has been since his rookie year at 73.8%. Once again, not awful numbers by any means, but it’s safe to wonder if this is the start of a downward trend as he nears the age of 30.

Next, Duran’s defense in 2025 was abysmal. He started in left field for the bulk of the season but logged 28 games in center and two games in right. He doesn’t have the arm to play right field at Fenway Park, and likely wouldn’t be able to man it on a regular basis for many other teams either. In center, he takes suboptimal paths to the ball and is able to make up for it due to his speed, but that speed won’t be there for his whole career. In left, his best-fitting position, Duran made five fielding errors and one throwing error. He looked beaten by balls he should have been able to easily track down and made easily avoidable mistakes with those errors. In the Wild Card round, you can point to his error in the outfield as the turning point in the whole series. Defensive Runs Saved loved him (+11) this year, but Outs Above Average (-4) felt the opposite. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Finally, and unfortunately, there are off the field concerns with Duran that could be keeping some teams away. His use of a homophobic slur in 2024 and subsequent suspension are definite detractors, and his verbal altercation with a fan in Cleveland in 2025 could leave a bitter taste in some mouths. His open struggle with his mental health has been, and should continue to be, applauded, but there will be front offices and clubhouse leaders across the league that won’t want that kind of attention brought onto their teams. It’s unfortunate, but this is part of the equation with superstar athletes.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox have every right to hold firm to a high asking price for Duran. He’s a leader in the clubhouse and is just one year removed from an MVP-caliber season. Holding onto him and trying to make a four-outfielder rotation work could be in the cards if they don't find someone willing to meet their price.

However, something will have to give eventually. Hopefully the Red Sox can find their frontline starter before then.

View full article

[Randy Red Sox]

no chance that Duran brings back a #2 SP in return. Best to just keep him

[Alex Mayes]

15 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no chance that Duran brings back a #2 SP in return. Best to just keep him

Not by himself, no. He needs to be part of a package that returns one.