Article: A Look Under the Hood: Roman Anthony and Alex Bregman Are Quite Similar Hitters

[Alex Mayes]

Roman Anthony has been as advertised, without a doubt. The young phenom rarely looks overmatched at the plate, puts swings on pitches that some veteran big leaguers would gawk at, and has adapted to play both corner outfield spots whenever he’s asked. What is maybe even more impressive, though, is the plate discipline he’s shown in his young career. He’s striking out some, especially on off-speed pitches that he rarely saw in the minors, but his eye while he’s in the batter’s box is something that even most veteran players don’t possess. He’s currently one of two players on the Red Sox with a chase rate below 20%. The other name? Alex Bregman. There are even more similarities between the two, though, and that should mean that the rookie is primed to become a superstar in this league.

Roman Anthony is posting a chase rate of 19.2%, while Alex Bregman’s is 19.4%. Anthony technically still isn’t a qualified hitter per Baseball Savant, but if he were, his chase rate would be amongst the best 25 or so players in the league. For reference, Bregman sits in the 94th percentile at the moment. Due to his injury, Bregman has only 100 more plate appearances than Anthony on the season. Bregman holds 33 more hits than his rookie counterpart, 11 more home runs, and 26 more RBIs. What's really fascinating is that they both have 37 walks, and Anthony only carries 11 more strikeouts on the season. Sure, they hit from opposite sides of the plate, but their offensive profiles are incredibly similar.

Their fWARs are within almost a point of each other already, Bregman sitting at a 3.4 mark and Anthony with a 2.3. Their wRC+ figures sit close as well, 153 for Bregman and 139 for Anthony. Beyond that, their batted ball metrics also mirror one another, a far better predictor for future outcomes. Anthony and Bregman are both pull hitters, pulling the ball 42.5% and 50.6% of the time, respectively. Anthony is slightly more inclined to hit to the opposite field (21.9% for him versus 14.9% for Bregman), though that means they both use the middle of the field about one third of the time. Those are the kinds of spray charts elite hitters have, and it's why Anthony and Bregman lead the team in most offensive rate categories. 

Their quality of contact paints a fairly similar picture as well. They both do a solid job of limiting weak contact, though Anthony has him lapped in hard contact, and that should come as a surprise to no one. Anthony is posting an incredible 44.5% hard rate against Bregman’s 34.5%. When Anthony makes contact it’s loud, even when it’s on the ground.

It should come as no surprise then that Roman Anthony and Alex Bregman are seen together frequently in the dugout. Bregman took on a coaching style role with the organization during his stint on the injured list, and Anthony benefitted greatly from it. Anthony even moved his locker in the clubhouse to be next to Bregman’s. There are reports that Bregman was coaching both Anthony and Marcelo Meyer through their at-bats after games and having them take dry swings so they could make adjustments in the cage the next day. The similar offensive numbers shouldn’t shock us at all. especially seeing as the two have the most raw talent of anyone in Boston's clubhouse. While under Bregman’s wing, Anthony has flourished as soon as even the most optimistic prognosticators could have hoped.

Under the hood, there are a ton of similarities between Alex Bregman and Roman Anthony. As the rookie spends more time at the big league level, expect some fluctuation as the league adjusts to him and vice versa. Should Alex Bregman re-sign with the Red Sox, he will be in a prime position to help guide the younger generation to success and, hopefully, World Series titles. If Bregman is the face of the franchise this season, Anthony will be for years to come. More than anything else that happens this season, that should be music to the ears of all of us.

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[Bellhorn04]

One thing I noticed on the replay of Anthony's homer Thursday was how "quiet" his swing and follow-through were, perfectly smooth and balanced with no wasted effort and everything synched up.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Anthony has a beautiful swing like Griffey did but now that he's gotten past his initial hitting failure, we need to see what happens the next time he struggles and has some adversity at hitting.  That's when the coaches start tinkering and let's hope they don't with Anthony.  

Bregman's swing isn't as rounded Anthony's swing so any coincidental alignment in performance stats for a guy who has played 60 games isn't really relevant.  The sample size is too small. The swing doesn't look similar.  Not much to agree with in the article.