Article: Three Big Red Sox Surprises From the First Half of the 2025 Season

[Nick John]

6 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Two excellent choices.  Naylor I think will be expensive compared to Diaz because he was supposed to replace Christian Walker long term but ARI hasn't extended him so who knows.  Yandy seems like a long-shot because it's TB giving BOS an advantage.  I don't think they will do that but again, you never know.

Cora has the outfielders all playing out of position so I might consider moving Anthony to 1B since Cora insists on playing Abreu in RF when Rafaela should be playing there because Duran is WAY better at CF than LF.  Anthony should be in LF but I don't think Cora will ever figure it out so he might as well play 1B since his bat is needed as long as he keeps producing.  

I like the idea of loading up and trying for Nick Kurtz from OAK.  He's got a huge upside.  I think he might end up a better hitter than Anthony and he's huge but coordinated.  Give OAK Abreu, Blaze Jordan to play 1B and a SS from the lower minors for Kurtz.  It will pay dividends immediately.

Arizona seems inclined to trade their soon to be free agents due to budget reasons. They're at $190M this season (a team record) and around $112M next year for just 10 players. They need young pitching and we have it. See if any of our young pitchers (Sandlin?) could entice them.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

40 minutes ago, Nick John said:

Arizona seems inclined to trade their soon to be free agents due to budget reasons. They're at $190M this season (a team record) and around $112M next year for just 10 players. They need young pitching and we have it. See if any of our young pitchers (Sandlin?) could entice them.

Interesting.  A team that went to the World Series in 2023 has jumped it's payroll to $190 Million from $119 Million and now will drop back to $119 Million if they let all their 2026 FA go or trade them with a couple of months left before free agency.  That's quite a predicament.  They carried a $178 Million dollar payroll in 2024 after competing in the World Series and they are in a division with LAD, SDP and SFG who just spent $260Million over 8 years on Devers.  You think they will let go all the FAs and not resign any of them?

 Their big price tickets seem grossly under rated on SPOTRAC.  Gurriel is estimated as a FA to cost $16.8 Million.  I think they could deal him and not look back.  Naylor is estimated at $16 Million and that seems ridiculously low.  I expect him to go for 50% more than that in Free Agency and if not then he's a great candidate for a trade for and extend so the 1B issues completely goes away.  Gallen is listed at $11.7 Million and that seems absurdly low.  If true, there is no way they should consider trading him.  Actually, if they want to stay competitive in the NL West they should keep him and sign him long term.  Suarez is listed at $12.3 Million which is also absurd.  So, if I am ARI and want to prepare for 2026 with SPOTRAC estimates of future cost I would keep:

Naylor at $16.0 Million

Gallen at $11.7 Million

Suarez at $12.3 Million

That would add $40 Million to the already $119 Million for a starting point in 2026 of $159 Million.  That would put the team $19 Million below the 2024 payroll and keep them competitive in the NL West.  So I find it hard to believe that those three players will be dealt.

That just leaves the following free agents and rostered players that could be dealt:

1 - Merrill Kelly 37 in 2026 with a career WAR of 16.6 in 7 years and is having an excellent 2025.

Would we trade prospects for him?  Would we consider extending him?

2 - Lourdes Gurriel 32 in 2026 with a career WAR of 12.8 in 8 years and has an OPS+ of 98 in 2025

With all our outfielders, he's not a candidate

3 - Eduardo Rodriguez 33 in 2026 with a price tag of $20 Million through 2028

We know him and he's not worth $20 Million but if I were them and wanted to cut the projected $159 Million when you include Naylor, Gallen and Suarez losing EROD would drop that number to a more reasonable $139 Million.

In the end, I think many analysts have concluded will be sellers of their big three FAs at the end of the season and will consider the 5.5 games back in the wild card too much so they are sellers.  I think they could be sellers but I find it hard to believe they will sell any of their big three FAs.  Kelly, YES.  The other 3, NO.

BUT, if they do Boston could use all or any of them.  Naylor solves the 1B issue, Gallen slots in nicely behind Crochet and Suarez's power at 1B or DH would be a huge win for Breslow, especially if he can sign them at the prices that SPOTRAC projects.  The three FAs would make BOS the favorite to win the AL East in 2026.  Also, the prices on SPOTRAC are correct the payroll would off-set the Devers money almost exactly.  That would be a far better use of the $30 Million Breslow recovered in the Devers deal.

What do you think?

[Nick John]

2 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Interesting.  A team that went to the World Series in 2023 has jumped it's payroll to $190 Million from $119 Million and now will drop back to $119 Million if they let all their 2026 FA go or trade them with a couple of months left before free agency.  That's quite a predicament.  They carried a $178 Million dollar payroll in 2024 after competing in the World Series and they are in a division with LAD, SDP and SFG who just spent $260Million over 8 years on Devers.  You think they will let go all the FAs and not resign any of them?

 Their big price tickets seem grossly under rated on SPOTRAC.  Gurriel is estimated as a FA to cost $16.8 Million.  I think they could deal him and not look back.  Naylor is estimated at $16 Million and that seems ridiculously low.  I expect him to go for 50% more than that in Free Agency and if not then he's a great candidate for a trade for and extend so the 1B issues completely goes away.  Gallen is listed at $11.7 Million and that seems absurdly low.  If true, there is no way they should consider trading him.  Actually, if they want to stay competitive in the NL West they should keep him and sign him long term.  Suarez is listed at $12.3 Million which is also absurd.  So, if I am ARI and want to prepare for 2026 with SPOTRAC estimates of future cost I would keep:

Naylor at $16.0 Million

Gallen at $11.7 Million

Suarez at $12.3 Million

That would add $40 Million to the already $119 Million for a starting point in 2026 of $159 Million.  That would put the team $19 Million below the 2024 payroll and keep them competitive in the NL West.  So I find it hard to believe that those three players will be dealt.

That just leaves the following free agents and rostered players that could be dealt:

1 - Merrill Kelly 37 in 2026 with a career WAR of 16.6 in 7 years and is having an excellent 2025.

Would we trade prospects for him?  Would we consider extending him?

2 - Lourdes Gurriel 32 in 2026 with a career WAR of 12.8 in 8 years and has an OPS+ of 98 in 2025

With all our outfielders, he's not a candidate

3 - Eduardo Rodriguez 33 in 2026 with a price tag of $20 Million through 2028

We know him and he's not worth $20 Million but if I were them and wanted to cut the projected $159 Million when you include Naylor, Gallen and Suarez losing EROD would drop that number to a more reasonable $139 Million.

In the end, I think many analysts have concluded will be sellers of their big three FAs at the end of the season and will consider the 5.5 games back in the wild card too much so they are sellers.  I think they could be sellers but I find it hard to believe they will sell any of their big three FAs.  Kelly, YES.  The other 3, NO.

BUT, if they do Boston could use all or any of them.  Naylor solves the 1B issue, Gallen slots in nicely behind Crochet and Suarez's power at 1B or DH would be a huge win for Breslow, especially if he can sign them at the prices that SPOTRAC projects.  The three FAs would make BOS the favorite to win the AL East in 2026.  Also, the prices on SPOTRAC are correct the payroll would off-set the Devers money almost exactly.  That would be a far better use of the $30 Million Breslow recovered in the Devers deal.

What do you think?

The $112M doesn't include arbitration numbers either. And of that $112M, $30M goes to Burnes who will miss most of the 1st half next season. I think they move their big free agents to restock the major league roster and high minors with cheap, major league ready talent. A team like Arizona can't compete with Dodgers or Giants if they try to match them in spending. They tried that after making the world series in 2023 and are now dealing with having to trade players. I don't think the Sox go after Gallen but should look into Naylor or Suarez.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure AZ will be sellers, this deadline, despite being just 5.5 behind in the WC

PIT should be sellers, but I seriously doubt they trade Skenes.

COL, WSH, CWS, OAK should all be sellers, but some teams might not have what we are looking for, or may not want to part with really good and controlled players.

The borderline teams are:

ATL -9.5 WC
BAL -8.5 WC

MIA -7.5 WC

KCR -5.5 WC

MIN -5.0 WC

CLE -4.5 WC

LAA & TEX -3.5 to 4.0 WC