Article: FanGraphs' Top 45 Red Sox Prospects List Makes Multiple Interesting Calls

[Nick John]

With the 2025 season more than halfway over, FanGraphs has released their updated top 45 prospects list for every team. The one for the Boston Red Sox, however, has some questionable choices to it, especially when it comes to the placement of certain prospects along with keeping other players who have been deemed to have “graduated” from prospect status according to other sites.

Right off the bat (no pun intended) is FanGraph’s No. 2 ranked Red Sox prospect, Kristian Campbell. Campbell opened the season with the Sox and after a hot stretch, cooled down considerably. Now back in Worcester to work on a few things, Campbell has graduated from prospect status on multiple rankings such as Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and SoxProspects. Joining Campbell as having graduated from prospect status is FanGraphs’ fifth ranked Red Sox prospect, Richard Fitts. The final prospect on the rankings who has graduated from prospect status is Carlos Narváez, who is ranked 10th on the site.

[EDITOR's NOTE: FanGraphs does this with all of their mid-season prospect rankings. They normally don't remove ineligible players until after the trade deadline. It is valid to point out, though, since it affects the placement of other prospects on the list.]

Should you take those three off the board, the Top Five would now look like this: Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Franklin Arias, Payton Tolle and Brandon Clarke. A much more accurate, though not perfect, representation of the top five prospects in the organization.

One thing to note from this list is how of the 45 players on the list, 25 are pitchers and 13 of them are currently on the injured list, a key one being Luis Perales, who, despite being viewed as the top Red Sox pitching prospect by others, is ranked 17th by FanGraphs. While you could argue that his rehab from Tommy John surgery and missing out on most of 2024 and 2025 could cause such a slide, his potential alone should have him no lower than the top ten, and he shouldn’t be viewed as a single-inning relief pitcher (SIRP) on FanGraphs. While Perales has reliever risk in his profile, the Red Sox have shown no desire to attempt such a switch due to the immense potential he has as a starter. Other injured pitchers who made the list include Yordanny Monegro, Juan Valera, Jedixson Paez, Conrad Cason, Blake Wehunt and Jojo Ingrassia, all of whom have shown potential on the mound.

Likewise, I personally feel that James Tibbs III and Mikey Romero are ranked too low for their status as prospects. While Tibbs hasn’t demonstrated much power with Portland since coming over in the controversial Rafael Devers trade, he has still demonstrated good contract and an ability to get on base. Romero, another former first-round pick, has seen his career derailed by a back injury, but in 2025, he has shown great talent while healthy. In 46 games this season, the infielder has slashed .274/.343/.486 to go along with 13 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 27 RBIs, all while tying his walk total from last season in 32 less games.

And, while I am extremely high on Brandon Clarke as a pitcher, believing he could have the makings of a mid-rotation starter should he put it all together, seeing him ranked seventh by FanGraphs feels a little too high. While it seems nitpick-y to say he should be lower, I feel he shouldn’t be any higher than tenth on a prospect ranking at this point in time.

Despite arguing quite a bit early on, I do feel they are correct on several of their placements as well. Both Jhostynxon Garcia and Connelly Early feel to be at the perfect ranking based on their seasons, along with young pitchers Valera and Paez ,who have both dealt with injuries this season but flash amazing potential. Another player I can’t argue about their placement is Yoeilin Cespedes, who has fallen down a few prospect rankings due to shaky batting this season for Salem. In 62 games, he’s only hit .231/.282/.380 with 13 doubles, four triples, five home runs and 32 RBIs. However, I feel like an eventual promotion to High-A Greenville could yield an increase in production, as Greenville’s home field could help to turn what would be outs at Salem into hits. Cespedes is still only 19 and missed a good portion of 2024 due to injury, so the possibility remains that he figures it all out.

The last part of the list that really caught my attention is something that makes me scratch my head. Ignoring the part that Fitts has been viewed as graduating prospect status by others, the fact that he is ranked fifth while Hunter Dobbins is down at 18th confuses me. Of the two, Dobbins has had a better season when you just look at the stats. Dobbins has pitched in 12 games so far in Boston, ten of them starts, and has won four games with a 4.10 ERA. In those 12 games, he’s thrown 59 1/3 innings while striking out 43 and walking 16. Along with that, he’s only surrendered six home runs. His WAR according to FanGraphs is also at 0.9.

Fitts, on the other hand, has only pitched in seven starts for Boston and missed a good portion of the season due to injury. He has yet to win a game in those seven starts and has an ERA of 4.50 across 28 innings. In those 28 innings, he’s struck out 22 batters and allowed seven home runs. FanGraphs has also given him a WAR of -0.2, a big difference from Dobbins’ 0.9. And, when you look deeper into their stats, I still can’t help but wonder how Fitts is ranked higher. Currently, Fitts has a higher xERA and FIP than Dobbins: 5.70 and 5.95 vs. 3.96 and 3.87.

Where Fitts excels compared to Dobbins is in chase rate. Fitts currently has a 34.2% chase rate, putting him in the 93rd percentile compared to Dobbins’ 27.5% rate which has him in the 42nd percentile. Along with that, Fitts also has a higher whiff percentage of 23.9% compared to 21.9%, and has a higher strikeout rate of 18.2% to 17.3%. That type of swing-and-miss potential does give him, arguably, a higher ceiling. In the end, it’s never a bad thing to have a discussion on which of your young pitchers will be the better of the two. It’s a great argument for a franchise that has failed to develop home grown quality starting pitching in the past.

When it comes to prospect rankings, no one will ever be completely happy, as everyone has their own thoughts and beliefs toward certain players. Ranking prospects can get tricky, as some can suddenly jump up the rankings after a good season and others who were deemed to be future stars could end up never reaching their true potential. At least it makes for interesting discussions, right?

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