This Reliever Is Tearing Up Triple-A. Should the Red Sox Give Him A Chance?

[Nick John]

The Worcester Red Sox have a few interesting pitchers on their roster that could provide help to Boston at some point in the season. The one who may be the most interesting pick might be someone who was viewed as nothing more than Triple-A depth.

Nick Burdi is no stranger to bouncing around teams. Since being drafted in 2014, he has spent time in the Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees organizations before signing a minor league deal with the Boston Red Sox on February 28th of this year. At the time, he wasn’t expected to compete for a roster spot, having signed after spring training began. Instead, it was expected he would open the year at Triple-A and be used as emergency depth.

After an impressive opening to the season, that plan may have to change. Through his first 14 2/3 innings pitched, Burdi has been nearly unhittable. With an ERA of 0.61 that is backed up by a WHIP of 0.82 and a FIP of 0.97, Burdi has been one of the most dominant arms not just in the Worcester bullpen but throughout Triple A.

The 32-year-old has used a mix of three pitches: a slider, four-seam fastball and a changeup. His most used pitch has been the slider, with a usage rate near 40%. The pitch has averaged 86.6 mph, breaking around 10.6 inches horizontally towards his glove side, a great pitch to try and get right-handed batters to chase. Unfortunately, while it’s managing a 42.4% whiff rate, it’s only being chased out of the zone at a 27.3% rate. Despite that, the expected weighted on-base average it allows is sitting at an amazing 0.189, providing hope it's still major-league caliber.

The fastball has been just as useful, being thrown at 30.6% of the time and averaging around 96 mph, though it has reached 97-98 mph. Overall, it has been less effective than the slider, though thanks to the speed difference between the two pitches, it helps to make his slider even more dangerous to opposing batters. Hitting the zone around 47% of the time with his fastball, Burdi has been able to get batters to chase it 25% of the time and whiff at just under 42% of his fastballs thrown.

His final pitch is his changeup, thrown at the same amount of the time as his fastball at 30.6%. Unlike most changeups, this one is hard and firm, being thrown at 93.8 mph. At times, he’s been able to throw it for a slower speed, but for the most part, it is only a few miles slower than his fastball. It’s an interesting pitch for its movement, averaging around 1.5 inches of vertical break and 16.1 inches of horizontal break. The pitch so far has been his most accurate, landing in the strike zone 54.4% of the time, though it’s also been the hardest hit of the three pitches. Only able to generate a 13.8% whiff rate, the pitch has an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of 0.386.

The overall numbers don’t do enough justice for Burdi either, as his fastball velocity ranks in the 98th percentile in all of Triple-A, as does his expected weighted on-base average (.213). Add to it that batters are whiffing on 33.3% of his pitches, and Burdi is dominating his competition this year.

Most importantly, Burdi is controlling the strike zone and tempo of at-bats, striking out opposing hitters at a 38.6% rate while only walking them at a 5.3% rate. He’s keeping batters off the bases and he’s providing shutdown innings for the bullpen while providing length. In six of his appearances, he’s gone at least 1 1/3 innings, and in all but two of his 11 games, he’s had multiple strikeouts.

Burdi’s main issue, however, is his ability to limit hard contact. While most end up as outs, batters have been barreling up 6.5% of batted balls and are hitting them hard at an even higher percentage. Burdi’s hard-hit rate is currently 45.2%, which just won't be sustainable against big league hitters.

Burdi does have some experience in the majors, appearing in 31 games across five injury-filled seasons. In that span, he’s tossed 25 innings and struck out 39 batters with a 6.48 ERA. Last season, he pitched much better for the Yankees, appearing in 12 games and throwing 9 2/3 innings. In that span, he struck out 12 batters and only allowed two runs on five hits and nine walks.

Burdi is an interesting name to think about should the Red Sox need an extra arm. He may not be the first choice, as someone like Luis Guerrero would likely be recalled before him, but Burdi has put himself firmly back on the radar. He’s had experience in the major leagues, and he’s shown what he’s capable of so far through 11 games in Worcester this season. Eventually, Boston will have to decide on what they want to do with the veteran reliever.

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[moonslav59]

I was just about to post about this very idea, along with giving Guerrero another look-see.

[Nick John]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was just about to post about this very idea, along with giving Guerrero another look-see.

I've watched him quite a few times in Worcester this season. That fastball/slider combination works very well and I think it's worth a shot. If it doesn't work out then just cut him. If it works out, you have another arm

[Larry Cook]

Do we move Casas to the 60 day DL to make room for burdi ??