Article: Vaughn Grissom Out, Marcelo Mayer In: Red Sox Second Base Battle Rages On

[Davy Andrews]

Who will play second base on Opening Day? Perhaps we'll never know. You know, until Opening Day. Let's break down the remaining contenders.

On Tuesday, Bryan Jaeger wrote up the second base entry in our Red Sox Position Analysis series. Now, just three days later, the state of the position looks much different and with apologies to Bryan, it’s time for an update. It started during Tuesday’s game against the Yankees, when Marcelo Mayer, who had never once played second base in 2,034 1/3 professional innings, took over for Kristian Campbell at the keystone in the sixth inning. Mayer spent all game at second base against the Tigers on Wednesday. When reporters asked whether Mayer would have a shot at being the team’s Opening Day second baseman, Alex Cora said simply, “Everybody has a shot.”

That wasn’t entirely true. On Wednesday afternoon, word broke that that the Red Sox had optioned Vaughn Grissom back down to triple-A Worcester. Expelling Grissom from the fraternity of everybody was pretty clearly the right move. Grissom was once the heir apparent to Dansby Swanson in Atlanta, but once he reached Triple A, his numbers were propped up by batted ball luck. The Red Sox took a gamble on him, and it has not paid off. Grissom has not shown any reason for optimism in 350 major-league PAs, displaying little plate discipline, power, or on-base ability. Over the same short sample size, the advanced metrics have not liked his defense either. It’s too early to write the 24-year-old off entirely, but he’s simply not who you want starting at second base if you expect to contend.

So who’s left in the category of everybody? There’s Mayer, Campbell, David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, and Romy Gonzalez. We should probably talk briefly about Alex Bregman.

As you surely know, Bregman made it clear over the winter that he was open to shifting from third base to second if that made the most sense for whoever signed him. Similarly, the Red Sox said very clearly that they had no plans to move Rafael Devers off third base. The moment Bregman arrived in camp, all that went out the window. Bregman has played only third base, and Devers won’t play defense during spring training at all. It remains to be seen what the team will do when both Devers and Masataka Yoshida are healthy, as Devers is the team’s best hitter and Yoshida isn’t too far behind, but at this point, it seems unlikely that Bregman plays anything but third. If the team thought there was the slightest chance that he might end up playing regular season games at second base, he would be getting would reps there.

So that leaves Mayer, Campbell, Hamilton, Sogard, and Gonzalez. Now let’s cross off Sogard and Gonzalez. Both seem ticketed for utility roles this season, and they would represent stopgap options at best. Gonzalez has never hit at the big-league level or graded out well as a second baseman. Sogard hasn’t really hit even in the minors. As a side note, Gonzalez left Tuesday’s game with oblique tightness, but an MRI came back clean, so that shouldn’t be a factor.

The real competition seems to be between Mayer, Campbell, and Hamilton. Hamilton has an excellent argument for the job, and he seems like the likeliest contender. Hamilton didn’t hit particularly well in 2024, running a 92 wRC+ that seemed to be propped up by a bit of batted ball luck, but he stole 28 bases in just 98 games, and his baserunning and defense helped him put up 1.7 fWAR, an excellent total for a player who got just 317 PAs. However, it’s worth noting that if you use WARP, Baseball Prospectus’s version of WAR, Hamilton was only worth 0.4. WARP docked Hamilton for his batted ball luck, and it was a bit suspicious of his defense too. His real value is likely somewhere between those two valuations, making him a league-average player who could be worth two wins over a full season. He’s also been solid during spring training, making more contact than he did last season and running a 107 wRC+. Still, Hamilton would likely have more value to the team as a bench player who could pinch-hit against lefties and pinch-run when the team needs a bag. All great teams have a player like that.

That leaves Mayer and Campbell. Campbell came into camp looking like he had a real shot at the job. He’s a true second baseman and a higher-ranked prospect, and although he had just 19 games of experience at triple-A Worcester, that was 19 more games than Mayer. Campbell has struggled during spring training, batting just .158 and striking out a third of the time. Mayer has excelled, but he’s also run an absurd .476 BABIP, so it’s hard to know how seriously to take his performance. Campbell started seeing time at other defensive positions at spring training, and now Mayer is seeing time at second. This is pretty easy to interpret: the team isn’t quite so high on Campbell at second and wants to give Mayer a shot.

So that’s where we stand with just three spring training games and two against the Mexican Sultanes de Monterrey remaining before Opening Day. Just yesterday, I argued strenuously that the Red Sox should only promote Mayer, Campbell, and Roman Anthony to Boston once they're truly ready, and were prepared to give them all the runway they needed to find their feet at the major league level. They’ve got too much potential to do anything that might hinder their development into stars. Maybe the team believes that time is now for either Mayer or Campbell. There’s no way to know. If they don’t feel that way, then letting Hamilton start the season with the job makes a lot of sense. He’s probably not a long-term solution, but he should be solid while Campbell and Mayer get the chance to prove themselves in Worcester.

However things shake out, we’ll find out what the team thinks soon enough.  

 

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[moonslav59]

I think DHam has the lead, right now. Mayer is second. Campbell starts the season in AAA. Romy is DHam's platoon partner. If Mayer is not the 2Bman, he will start in AAA, too and not be added to the 40, until he's penciled in to start at the big level.

If it was my choice, I think I'd go with Mayer.