Article: What Walker Buehler Means for the Red Sox Starting Rotation

[Daniel Fox]

What does the starting rotation look like with Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval signed to short-term deals?

Over the past three middling seasons, the starting rotations of the Boston Red Sox shared two commonalities. The first was the lack of a true ace, as injuries to Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale, as well as the inevitable growing pains of young starters like Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck, have left the team without a true stopper during its most critical stretches. The second was a lack of depth, which combined with injuries to force the team into disastrous alternatives: unproven youngsters like Connor Seabold, an over-the-hill James Paxton, and far too frequent use of openers. On Monday morning, the Red Sox agreed to terms with Walker Buehler, a pitcher who has the potential to solve both of those issues. The addition of Buehler, coupled with last week's signing of a rehabbing Patrick Sandoval, gives the Red Sox quality options for August and September. Buehler possessed arguably the highest upside of any remaining free agent starter. His dominant postseason run provides hope that Andrew Bailey and company can help him rediscover his form, allowing him to slot in alongside Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck to form a dominant top-of-the-rotation. 

Let’s go back in time for a second, specifically to Game 3 of the 2018 World Series. Many fans may remember this as the Nathan Eovaldi-Max Muncy 18-inning extravaganza, but what often gets lost in the shuffle is the performance of a 23-year-old Buehler. With his Dodgers trailing, 2-0, and their backs against the wall, Buehler completely overmatched the greatest Red Sox team of all time, punching out seven and allowing just two hits over seven scoreless innings. Though Kenley Jansen blew the save in the eighth, Buehler thrust himself into the national spotlight and looked ready to take the baton from Clayton Kershaw as the next great Dodgers ace. Over the next three years, Buehler delivered two All-Star campaigns and a fourth-place Cy Young finish.

Everything seemed to be going according to plan, but Buehler came out of the gate slowly in 2022, displaying decreased life and velocity on his fastball. In June, he underwent his second Tommy John surgery, wiping out the rest of the season and the entirety of 2023. Buehler was finally healthy enough to return to Chavez Ravine in 2024, but the results were a mess. He looked nothing like his former self, posting a career-low 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a career-high 5.38 ERA. Things ultimately got so bad that he was sent to a private sports facility in July to work out by himself. 

More by necessity than performance, Buehler earned a spot in the Dodgers postseason rotation. His NLDS performance did little to inspire hope, as he was pounded by the Padres to the tune of six runs over five innings. Yet just when it seemed to be falling apart for Buehler, he suddenly rediscovered something like his pre-surgery form. He shut out the Mets over four innings in the NLCS before tossing five shutout innings on the road against the Yankees in Game 3 of the World Series. A pitcher who looked like he might get bounced from the playoff roster had earned so much trust from manager Dave Roberts that he was brought in on one day's rest in the Game 5 clincher, tossing a perfect ninth inning to secure his second World Series championship.

It is now up to the Red Sox pitching development team to figure out how to help Buehler pitch like he did in the postseason rather than the regular season. Davy Andrews broke down Buehler's performance on Monday, but the biggest difference between Buehler's 2021 and 2024 seasons was his four-seam fastball. The pitch went from having a .201 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage to a whopping .342 average against and .696 slugging. It only lost a tick of velocity, so the difference resulted almost entirely from its new movement profile and Buehler's changed arm angle. Buehler will need to rely on his soft stuff more going forward, as he did during his dominant postseason run.

And look, we can sit here all day and talk about pitch shapes and optimization, but that’s not what gets me excited about Buehler. I keep going back to the the Red Sox' September 13 heartbreaker against the Yankees. With a 4-0 lead in the seventh inning, Zack Kelly and Cam Booser completely imploded, giving up a single and three walks before an Aaron Judge grand slam gave the Yankees a 5-4 lead. With their playoff chances hanging by a thread, the Red Sox were forced to turn two guys who, frankly, were not up to such moment. 

Through his ups and downs, Buehler has also delivered in the big spots. He has a sparkling 3.04 ERA in 19 postseason starts, a stretch that includes the aforementioned World Series masterpieces against the Red Sox and Yankees, as well as two dominant performances in the 2019 NLDS against the Nationals, in which he allowed just one run in 12 2/3 innings. If the Red Sox want to get into the postseason and make a deep run, they need guys like Buehler who have been there before and will not be intimidated by the big stage.

While the Buehler signing ensures the Red Sox will have at least one big-game pitcher in their 2025 rotation, it also seemingly puts the finishing touches on their starting pitcher splurge. Though we all expected the Red Sox to land one of the big fish — Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, or Max Fried — they ultimately accomplished their stated goal of adding two starting pitchers and raising the ceiling of the rotation. Crochet and Buehler don’t have the track record or the health of those three, but signing them allowed the Red Sox to stick to their long-held preference of avoiding long-term contracts to pitchers over 30, while still getting pitchers who can help them contend in 2025. I still believe they should have just given the eighth year to Fried if they thought so highly of him, but overall, I am happy with the two guys they got.

With the additions of Crochet, Sandoval, and Buehler, as well as the impending return of Lucas Giolito, the Red Sox suddenly have a very crowded rotation. The biggest remaining question is not whether they will continue to add but whether they will subtract. The most obvious candidate is Kutter Crawford, who is coming off a productive, durable season but appears to be the odd man out when everyone is healthy. The Red Sox could move him to the bullpen, where he had success in the past, but it is fair to wonder how a guy who made 33 starts will feel about such a demotion.

With so many teams in the market for controllable starting pitching, it would make a lot of sense for the Red Sox to use their sudden surplus to address other needs. They might even be able to pair Crawford with Masataka Yoshida to get a team to take on his contract. You can obviously never have too much starting pitching, but Craig Breslow now has the opportunity to get creative on the trade market. The Red Sox already have more depth than they have had in years, and Sandoval should be return to return in the second half. Should Giolito be healthy enough to claim the fifth and final rotation spot behind Crochet, Buehler, Houck, and Bello, the Worcester rotation will presumably look something like this:

Cooper Criswell
Josh Wincowski
Quinn Priester
Richard Fitts
Hunter Dobbins

That list includes two swingmen who have had periods of success in the big leagues, a 24-year-old former first-round pick who still flashes premium stuff, and two highly-regarded prospects who have the build and pitch profile of back-end starters. As Red Sox fans have seen over the past few years, not many teams have this kind of luxury sitting in the minors. Having so many options in Boston and Worcester takes the pressure off of Buehler. He doesn't need to come in and immediately be the ace: That's what Crochet was brought in to do. The Red Sox are looking for veteran leadership and mid-rotation production, and if Buehler can carry over what he did in the postseason, he should be more than capable of fulfilling that responsibility.

The Red Sox have made a big dent in their stated offseason goals, but there is still a lot of work to do. They're still roughly $9 million short of their 2024 payroll and $30 million short of the first luxury tax threshold. While they can check two starting pitchers and a left-handed reliever off their list, they still need a right-handed bat and one more late-inning reliever to seriously pose a threat to the Yankees at the top of the American League East. So far they've essentially replace Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Cam Booser with Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, and Justin Wilson. If that's an improvement, it's a very small one. One of Teoscar Hernández or Alex Bregman and a proven reliever like Jeff Hoffman would be a great holiday gift to Red Sox Nation and a major signal to the league that the team is ready to make a run in 2025.

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[moonslav59]

I've never liked the taste of Kool-Aid, anyway, but I'm not taking even a sip.

Maybe, my mood will change.

Merry Christmas, everyone! Happy Holidays to those who do not celebrate Xmas.