Article: Why the Red Sox Should Keep Rafael Devers at Third Base

[Davy Andrews]

There's been a lot of talk about moving Rafael Devers from third base this offseason. Does it make sense for the Red Sox to actually do it? In this article, Alex Mayes argued the affirmative this morning. Now, Davy Andrews argues the negative.

Look, I’ve seen the errors. And even if hadn’t seen them, I could check the advanced stats. According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Values, Rafael Devers graded out as the worst qualified third baseman in baseball this season. And last season. And in 2021. And in 2020. Since his debut in 2017, Defensive Runs Saved says Devers has cost the Red Sox 62 runs. No one else in baseball has cost their team more than 46 over that same timeframe. Devers just isn’t a good defensive third baseman. But overall, he’s still one of the best third basemen in the game. Year in and year out, the Red Sox can count on Devers to play 140 games and to put up a batting line that’s 30% better than league average. Even after accounting for the defense, that means that he plays at an All-Star level year in and year out. Since 2019, he’s put up 24 fWAR, third-best among all third basemen. It would be great if Devers were better with the glove. It would be so, so great. But the big picture is what matters, and Devers makes the whole package work.

The Red Sox have an excellent slugging first baseman in Triston Casas. Did you know that Casas and Devers have the exact same career wRC+ of 125? They’ve been identically good as hitters. Not only that, but Casas is only 24. He hasn’t entered his prime yet, and nearly half of his MLB at-bats have come while he was either fighting through an injury or a rookie getting a cup of coffee. He could end up a better hitter than Devers! He’s not a great defensive first baseman, but the advanced numbers indicate that, in a short sample, he improved significantly in 2024. More importantly, there’s no particular reason to expect Devers to improve significantly at first. It’s not as challenging a position, but that’s not exactly a guarantee. If you move Devers to first, there’s a solid chance that you’re just turning him into Casas, but with a huge paycheck. Would you like to see the list of MLB first baseman who have ever made as much per year as Devers makes? Here’s the list: Nobody. Not Freddie Freeman, not Bryce Harper, not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nobody. Casas, on the other hand, will be paid much less than he’s worth for the next three seasons. He’s a valuable piece, and he’s made it extremely clear that he wants to be a part of the team. He played through an extremely injury last season. Young, cost-controlled players with that kind of commitment to the team don’t exactly grow on trees.

The Red Sox also have an incumbent DH in Masataka Yoshida (as well as several young hitting prospects, who, if they force their way on to the roster during the 2025 season, could spell Yoshida at DH, strengthening the position). Yoshida’s shoulder injury and surgery have tanked his trade value. If they get rid of him, they’re unlikely to get anything valuable in return. Any move would be made simply to save some money. The Red Sox have been shouting from the rooftops that they have money to spend, and the true luxury of money is not having to worry about money. That's not a good enough reason to make the team worse. Moreover, knowing that he played through injury the entire season, it’s not unreasonable to think that Yoshida’s ceiling is a bit higher than what he showed. He may never be a star worth the $18 million he makes each year, but the league-average DH had a wRC+ of 108 last season. Yoshida, while playing hurt, was at 115. He’s better than the average DH! While injured! Selling low on Yoshida and relegating Devers to DH for the next nine seasons seems like an awfully drastic move.

The Red Sox have actual holes in their roster that need filling. They need pitching. They need catching. They need a middle infielder. Why, as they’re gearing up to compete for a championship, should they fixate on upgrading spots that have so much less need?

There’s also the matter of the players available right now. Alex Bregman is one of the two third basemen who’s put up more WAR than Devers over the past several years. However, he’s also a couple years older than Devers, and his production has fallen in each of the last two years. Don’t get me wrong, I think adding Bregman would be a huge move and a great fit, but Bregman has told reporters that he’s open to playing second base if he signs with a new team. If the Red Sox were to add him, having him do so for at least a season or two would help the team much more. The same goes for Willy Adames, a solid shortstop who has said that he’s open to playing second or third. Second base is the biggest hole on the roster, so keeping Adames in the middle infield is a much better play. As for trade candidate Nolan Arenado, I’m not convinced the Red Sox should get involved. Arenado is still a solid player, but his batting line seemed to be propped up by batted ball luck in 2024. His bat speed ranked in the 28th percentile, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate were among the worst in all of baseball. He’s 33 years old and under contract for three more seasons. Moving Devers off third to make room for a player who certainly looks like he's entered the decline phase of his career just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

The last piece is the most important. As Alex Mayes noted earlier today, Devers has spent just six professional innings playing a position other than third base. Six, out of 11,206 2/3 total innings. The guy is a third baseman. It’s quite literally all he’s ever known. He’s 28 years old, he’s the face of the franchise, and he’s under contract until 2034. If Devers doesn’t want to move off third base – and there’s no indication that he does – trying to move him could end up as a huge mess. The Red Sox just made a 10-year commitment to Devers, telling him he’s their third baseman well into the next decade. Are they really going to tell him – after year one – that they’ve changed their minds? How would you take that news? When it comes to Devers, you just have to take the good with the bad. He’s one of the best overall third baseman in the game year in and year out. So what if he's better with the bat than the glove?

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