Article: blueprint article

[Daniel Fox]

I am ready to be hurt again. 

Like many of you, I am still recovering from a 2023 offseason full of broken promises. The infamous “full throttle” comment, the swings-and-misses on All-Stars Seth Lugo, Shota Imanaga, and Teoscar Hernandez, and the failed Yoshinobu Yamamoto pursuit. All the hype ended in one free-agent signing: A one-year deal with Lucas Giolito, who would blow out his elbow before ever throwing a pitch in a Red Sox uniform. 

Yet here we are 12 months later, and I am right back into the fray. I will take full responsibility if proven wrong, but this year feels different. The Red Sox were a better team in 2024 than either 2022 or 2023, a credit to steps forward taken by young players and a vastly improved pitching staff. The team is in a new era, not thinking about how to win three or four years down the road but instead trying to compete for championships in 2025. This is reflected not just in the increased urgency in comments made by Sam Kennedy and Craig Breslow but in the confidence projected by reporters like Jeff Passan that the Red Sox will spend big this offseason. 

So, with all that said, here is my mock Red Sox offseason, based on early offseason rumors and my personal beliefs about the best moves for the team. 

Lineup

1. CF Jarren Duran
2. DH Gleyber Torres
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. 1B Triston Casas
5. SS Trevor Story
6. RF Roman Anthony
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. 2B Vaughn Grissom 
9. CF Cedanne Rafaela 

Bench 

• C/UT Connor Wong
• INF David Hamilton
• OF Rob Refsnyder 
• DH/PH Masataka Yoshida

I will try to run through everything because some unconventional moves are here. Let's start with Gleyber Torres, a player that the Red Sox have had an interest in in the past. From watching him over his seven years in New York, we all know that Torres is a flawed player, and nobody would ever confuse him for a superstar. Yet, as he showed in the postseason, Torres has an elite understanding of the strike zone, ranking in the 92nd percentile in chase rate and 70th percentile in walk rate. He also does damage against left-handed pitching, posting a .811 OPS versus southpaws compared to a .674 mark against righties. Torres may not be a traditional DH, but he can fill it at both second and third and slot in between lefties Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers. 

I am a firm believer in putting your best 26-man roster on the field at all times. Roman Anthony is not just one of the Red Sox's 26 best players; he has the potential to be one of their best hitters as soon as next year. Last year, the Red Sox put Ceddanne Rafaela on the Opening Day roster and stuck with him as he tried to learn the MLB strike zone on the fly. If they are willing to ride the growing pains with Rafaela, they should be fine letting Anthony, a much more advanced hitter, get everyday at-bats as a rookie. 

I have talked ad nauseam about Connor Wong’s defensive struggles and how the Red Sox can’t expect their pitching staff to take steps forward if they have one of the league’s worst catchers. 

With his above-average framing abilities, veteran experience, and surprising right-handed power, Kyle Higashioka could be the perfect stop-gap until Kyle Teel is ready.

Speaking of stop-gaps, I am fine giving Vaughn Grissom the first crack at second base until Marcelo Mayer or Krisitan Campbell forces the issue. The Red Sox aren’t going to give up on a guy they traded Chris Sale for after one season, and he showed enough at the end of the minor league season and during his last week in the majors to provide optimism heading into 2025. And if Grissom doesn’t work out, it won’t cost the Red Sox anything, and they could either give Torres more time at second base or roll with one of their top prospects. The bottom line is that you must see what you have in Grissom. 

I don’t believe Ceddanne Rafaela will ever be an average major-league hitter. The only player in baseball to chase even close to as often as Rafaela is Javier Baez, and we all know how that is working out. But much like Grissom, you have to see what you have in Rafaela, and even if he never posts an OPS above .700, you are still getting a premium defender in center field. 

The bench roles are mostly self-explanatory, with Connor Wong doing the backup catching and filling in around the infield, David Hamilton providing speed and a solid left bat, and Rob Refsndyer being the designated southpaw masher. The one notable player here is Masataka Yoshida. In an ideal world, he would be traded, but his lack of versatility, contract, and recent shoulder surgery will make that nearly impossible. The only thing for the Red Sox to do is give him 400 or so at-bats against right-handed pitching and hope he rebuilds his value enough to move him next off-season. 

Starting Rotation

1. Corbin Burnes
2. Tanner Houck
3. Garrett Crochet
4. Brayan Bello
5. Lucas Giolito

There is a reason I stuck only with short-term free-agent deals for the offense. This is where the Red Sox start spending money, and it will start with Corbin Burnes. I am aware of Burnes's warning signs, namely a strikeout rate that has declined for four straight years. 

Nevertheless, multiple reports have connected Burnes to the Red Sox, and he remains the best bet for the true ace they so desperately need. He may never strike out 250 batters in a season again, but there are few better bets today to deliver 200 elite innings. 

I am not here to tell you that Crochet solves all the Red Sox problems. I don’t even love the player all that much. For one, he has thrown 219 innings in the last five years and only had one MLB rotation season. I am also concerned with Crotchet’s comments at the trade deadline last season, where he claimed he would refuse to pitch in the postseason unless they gave him a contract extension. 

Even with all that being said, Crochet makes too much sense for the Red Sox to pass up. The two things the Red Sox lack in their starting rotation are left-handers and true swing-and-miss stuff, and Crochet fits both categories. He reminds me of another dominant left-hander who flourished under pitching coach Andrew Bailey: Carlos Rodon. 

The other worry surrounding Crochet is the prospect capital it will take to acquire him, as the Red Sox will reportedly compete with the Dodgers and Orioles for his services. While both teams have an elite farm system, the Red Sox can offer a combination of established, controllable players and high-upside prospects. I envision a package headlined by Kutter Crawford and Wilyer Abreu, along with prospects in their system's 5-10 range, such as Franklin Arias or David Sandlin. 

Bullpen

• RHP Garrett Whitlock
• RHP Justin Slaten
• RHP Liam Hendriks
• RHP Michael Fulmer
• RHP Luis Guerrero
• RHP Chris Martin
• LHP Tanner Scott 
• LHP Zach Penrod

Like the rotation, the Red Sox bullpen is desperately short on left-handed pitching and swing-and-miss ability. Enter Tanner Scott and his high-90s fastball. His inconsistent command may raise the heart rate of Red Sox fans a little too often, but nobody on either the trade or free-agent markets can provide what Scott can. 

Chris Martin is the one current Red Sox free agent I would re-sign. He caught a lot of flack last season due to some BABIP-fueled blow-ups, but his walk and strikeout rates were better than they were during his unhittable 2023 season. Nothing in the numbers indicates the 38-year-old Martin has slipped, and there is no risk in bringing him back for a one-year deal. 

It may be surprising that I only have one new addition to the Red Sox bullpen, but that just speaks to how impressed I was by Luis Guerrero and Zach Penrod during their September auditions. Guerrero, in particular, is a no-doubter after ten scoreless innings to begin his major league career, as the high-octane stuff matches the results. Penrod was slightly more shaky during his seven appearances, but I believe his upside far exceeds that of Brennan Bernardino or Bailey Horn. 

Three spots on this list are reserved for under-contract veterans returning from injury. The Red Sox signed Michael Fulmer and Liam Hendriks to multi-year deals, knowing they would be unlikely to pitch until 2025, and nothing has happened to change that plan. After three failed attempts at immersing him into the rotation, it is time for the Red Sox to give up the Garrett-Whitlock starter experiment and let him be the elite multi-inning reliever he was during his memorable rookie season. 

Though Whitlock, Hendriks, and Scott all have varying degrees of experience in the closer’s role, I am giving the first opportunity as the job to Justin Slaten. I can count on one hand the number of times Slaten appeared fazed during his rookie season, which is a quality I want in a closer. He also has demonstrated elite strike-throwing ability and true swing-and-miss stuff. There is a chance that Hendriks forces Alex Cora’s hand by looking like his old self, but I trust Slaten to get the three most important outs over a 36-year-old who hasn’t pitched in three years.

Another point about the bullpen: The Red Sox will have more MLB-quality depth in Triple-A than in some time. Rather than turning to Kaleb Ort or Justin Garza, the Red Sox will have Zack Kelly, Josh Winckowski, and Greg Weissert waiting in the wings, all of whom had dominant stretches in the majors last season. 

Full Transaction Recap

• Sign SP Corbin Burnes to a 6-year/$190 million deal
• Trade OF Wilyer Abreu, SP Kutter Crawford, SS Franklin Arias, and SP David Sandlin to the White Sox for SP Garrett Crochet
• Sign RP Tanner Scott to a 4-year/$60 million deal
• Sign 2B Gleyber Torres to a 2-year/$35 million deal
• Sign C Kyle Higashioka to a 1-year/$10 million deal
• Re-sign RP Chris Martin to a 1-year/$12 million deal

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[smokedogg1982]

Traded Abreyu and kutter Crawford for Crochet 

Traded Yoshida and ate 6mil of his salary for Montgomery and low level prospect 

• C: Kyle Higashioka ($7.50M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M)
• 2B: Christian Campbell ($0.80M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M)
• SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M)
• LF: Teoscar Hernandez ($20.00M)
• CF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M)
• RF: Roman Anthony ($0.80M)
• DH: Anthony Santander ($20.00M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M)
• Utility: Cedone Rafaela ($1.25M)
• Utility: Nick Sogard ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Conner Wong ($0.80M)
• NA: Massataka Yoshida ($6.00M)
• SP1: Garrett Crochet ($2.90M)
• SP2: Jordan Montgomery ($22.50M)
• SP3: Tanner Houk ($4.50M)
• SP4: Bryan Bello ($2.66M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M)
• RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M)
• RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.80M)
• RP: Garrett Whitlock ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Wilson ($0.80M)
• RP: Tanner Scott ($14.00M)
• RP: Josh Winckowski ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M)
• RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)