Bill James (and any other) 2013 Projections

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here were some 2012 projections using a method allegedly similar to James' method:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/721022-post14.html

 

So much for projections.

 

When there are projections for over 600 major league players, you certainly cannot just look at one and say "ok, no dice".

[dupree]

Although I do respect Bill James & I hope his projections for this year are spot on, which i think are a lil far fetched.

 

Bill James said that AGon swing would be a perfect fit in Fenway Park. His swing may have been but what the sabermetrics cant predict is not getting along with the manger and not adapting to the atmoshpere of the pressure cooker of Boston

 

Also Bard projections as a starter could not anticipate him losing all control and forgetting if he was a right handed or left handed pitcher. It was that bad. I hope he bouces back. Sabermetrics give a trend of what a player might do but it cant predict the mental side of baseball only the physical.

[User Name]

Although I do respect Bill James & I hope his projections for this year are spot on, which i think are a lil far fetched.

 

Bill James said that AGon swing would be a perfect fit in Fenway Park. His swing may have been but what the sabermetrics cant predict is not getting along with the manger and not adapting to the atmoshpere of the pressure cooker of Boston

 

Also Bard projections as a starter could not anticipate him losing all control and forgetting if he was a right handed or left handed pitcher. It was that bad. I hope he bouces back. Sabermetrics give a trend of what a player might do but it cant predict the mental side of baseball only the physical.

 

Gonzalez' problem was not mental, it was physical. Namely that bad shoulder that sapped him of his power. James was right about his swing, but all predictions assume freedom from injury, and that's where it gets dicey.

[dupree]

Gonzalez' problem was not mental, it was physical. Namely that bad shoulder that sapped him of his power. James was right about his swing, but all predictions assume freedom from injury, and that's where it gets dicey.

 

I had forgot about the shoulder injury... valid point

[SoxSport]

There's a decent chance Gonzo won't be the same guy power-wise he was before the shoulder surgery.

The Dodgers don't care because they wanted him for their Mexican fans. The Sox were damn lucky to have the Dodgers in a generous mood.

[redsoxfan3]

Thought this deserved its own thread.

 

Bill James projections are up on Fangraphs.

 

He actually really likes the Red Sox rotation right now, with 3 of the SP going over 200 IP (Lackey, Doubront, Lester) and Buch going 190. Doubie projects a 3.70 era, Lester a 3.71, Buchholz a 3.64, and Lackey a 4.05.

 

Offensively, the team looks good.

Middlebrooks is projected at .277, .806 OPS, 29 HR, 99 RBI.

Pedroia has a bounce back season, .296/.367/.459, 17 HR.

Ellsbury hits 15 HR, .294/.346/.436, 37 SB

Ortiz projects at .283/.386/.533, 32 HR, 103 RBI

Lavarnway projects to have a solid rookie season. .261/.335/.435, 16 HR, 66 RBI (115 G)

 

As for the acquisitions - Napoli projects at .248/.350/.469, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 127 G. Although I see Napoli more as a 150 game player, which would give him 34 HR, 89 HR.

 

Victorino: .269/.338/.418, 14 HR, 29 2B, 7 3B, 29 SB, 85 R.

 

Those numbers are not much different from Pedroia's numbers last year. He hit .290/.347/.449, and 15 HR's. That is pretty close to the projections. A lot of people say that he had a down year, when in reality he had a pretty solid year for someone who played through an injury for almost a month and only played 141 games. I think Pedroia could be a .300 hitter, 18 HR, 80 RBI, .850 OPS guy if he can avoid injuries. You could definitely tell last year when Pedroia was hurt. His production went down big time.

[jung]

You could definitely tell last year when Pedroia was hurt. His production went down big time.

 

I tried to make that argument before last season even started and basically drew reams of fire.

 

I love pedey but the expectation that he is just going to produce just as much when he is ailing is simply fan worship. He is not a God. He is a human being. He plays very hard and sometimes sustains injury because of it. He is also very tough and will attempt to play through it as much as he can. But to think that he will produce the same is simply wrong headed. He won't...he hasn't and the older he gets the less likely that he will.