ESPN Insider Potential Packages for Hamels

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"Let's trade Cole Hamels."

 

As Buster Olney wrote on Monday, it's certainly not a scenario the Philadelphia Phillies' front office wants to face, but it could be one that's at least discussed this winter.

 

Hamels turns 28 next month and will be a free agent after the 2012 season, and executives throughout baseball are skeptical about the Phillies' ability to keep the ace-level left-hander, considering the rest of their long-term salary commitments. Hamels is most definitely an ace. He's coming off his best season statistically and is in his prime. The Phillies should keep him, since aces don't exactly grow on trees, despite what it might seem like considering their rotation. Aces are also expensive, and if the Phillies decide to trade Hamels prior to the 2012 season, they will certainly find their phones burning up with prospective suitors.

 

If the Phillies put Hamels on the market, here's what they should be looking for:

 

1. A replacement in the rotation: Trading Hamels right now is not the best timing, as Roy Oswalt is leaving via free agency, which gives the Phillies two aces in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and then some mortality in Vance Worley and Joe Blanton, with Kyle Kendrick the most likely candidate from within to fill the No. 5 slot. Ignore Kendrick's 2011 ERA (3.22), since pitchers who don't miss bats (4.6 K/9) cannot sustain such numbers. And while teams are highly reticent to trade pitching prospects, they become willing when a pitcher like Cole Hamels is on the table.

 

2. Bullpen help: Jon Papelbon is simply a Ryan Madson replacement/upgrade, Jose Contreras is old as Methuselah, and most inside the game expect a regression from Antonio Bastardo. Relievers are the most unpredictable commodity in the game, and depth there is always a good thing.

 

3. Middle infield insurance: Jimmy Rollins is a free agent and Chase Utley is coming off the two worst seasons since his 2004 rookie campaign while missing a combined 106 games during that time. Enough said.

 

4. Athletes with upside Because when it comes to your players, that's what the Phillies always look for. That's their draft mantra, and likely will be their mantra for trades as well.

 

So while advising against the idea of it, let's play along and trade Cole Hamels to some likely interested parties, with the help of a big league executive who quipped, "Hey, I love trading other people's players!"

 

New York Yankees: Manny Banuelos, LHP; Hector Noesi, RHP; Austin Romine, C; Mason Williams, OF.

 

Banuelos is one of the best left-handed prospects in the game and, like Hamels, his best pitch is a changeup, but Banuelos has plenty of other offerings. He should be ready at some point in the 2012 season, while Noesi can start or relieve right now. Williams is exactly the kind of young, athletic outfielder the Phillies covet, and Romine could develop into a replacement for Carlos Ruiz. "The Phillies need a long-term catcher, and their top catching prospect, Sebastian Valle, is not a sure thing," said the executive.

 

Boston Red Sox: Will Middlebrooks, 3B; Jed Lowrie, INF; Brandon Jacobs, OF; Felix Doubront, LHP

 

While Placido Polanco was a Gold Glove winner and somehow an All-Star, he's still well below average offensively for the position, making Middlebrooks a perfect fit as a hot-corner player with above-average offensive and defensive potential who should be ready by 2013 at the latest. Lowrie is a perfect fit for infield depth, while Jacobs is toolsy and coming off a big year in low Class A. The biggest problem for the Red Sox is that they just don't have the arms to compete with other teams. "Doubront is out of options, and the Phillies need left-handed depth," said the exec.

Chicago Cubs: Brett Jackson, OF; Andrew Cashner, RHP; Junior Lake, INF

 

"People forget that Victorino is a free agent after next year, so a young center fielder could make a lot of sense here," said the executive. Jackson's strikeout issues will keep him from hitting for a high average, but his power and patience will more than make up for it. Cashner is healthy and throwing bullets, so he could give the Phillies a dominant late-inning combination when paired with Papelbon. Lake has tools and size, and some chance at becoming the answer at third base in a couple of years.

 

Texas Rangers: Martin Perez, LHP; Mike Olt, 3B; Jorge Alfaro, C; Roman Mendez, RHP

 

Perez has begun to stagnate a bit in the Rangers' system due to inconsistency issues, but he remains a left-handed starting prospect with upside who could pitch in the big leagues this year. Olt is a perfect trade chip as a plus defender at third base who put on a show with the bat in the Arizona Fall League, but he is interminably blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre. Alfaro and Mendez are the upside plays, with Alfaro most noted for his power and arm, while Mendez brings upper-90s heat.

 

Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner, RHP; Casey Crosby, LHP; Danry Vasquez, OF; Gustavo Nunez, SS

 

While Hamels to the Tigers makes sense, it's a difficult deal to make due to an extremely shallow system. "They just can't get the deal done without including Turner," said the executive, referring to the team's top prospect by a wide margin, who also is close to being ready for a major league rotation. Crosby has a terrifying injury history, but still has two well-above average pitches in his fastball and curveball and could be a weapon out of the bullpen. Vasquez was a big budget signing out of Venezuela in 2010 who offers plenty to dream about, while Nunez is an extra infielder.

 

Colorado Rockies: Drew Pomeranz, LHP; Chad Bettis, RHP; Charlie Blackmon, OF

 

Pomeranz was the big prize from Cleveland in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, and while he's an excellent prospect, Colorado should be happy to flip him in a deal for Hamels. A second-round pick in 2010, Bettis had a breakout performance in the high Class A California League, sitting at 92-96 mph and leading the league in strikeouts. "This is another chance for them to pick up a center fielder, but it's too bad that Colorado is in love with [Dexter] Fowler again," added the executive. That leaves Blackmon, who is solid across the board, but lacks star potential.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers: Dee Gordon, SS; Allen Webster, RHP; James Baldwin, OF

 

There are plenty of whispers that the Dodgers could be players this offseason, with a focus on increasing team value now that the McCourt nightmare is in the rearview mirror. The problem is, they just don't have the prospects to play ball with the big boys. "Their system is all pitching, and there just isn't someone who can headline the deal," explained the executive. Thus the inclusion of Gordon, who becomes an immediate Rollins replacement and provides the Phillies with some financial flexibility. Webster is a middle-rotation prospect with a 2013 timetable, while Baldwin is the perfect Phillie as a 20-year-old with some of the best tools around, but he's still learning how to place the baseball.

 

Washington Nationals: Brad Peacock, RHP; Derek Norris, C; Michael Taylor, OF; Stephen Lombardozzi, INF

 

"I'm surprised you don't have the Nationals on your list," said the executive as we ran through scenarios. The team is certainly expected to be busy in the free-agent market, so it makes sense that they'd be interested in Hamels. While Peacock lacks the upside of Hamels, he could walk right into the Philadelphia rotation and produce. Norris is a catcher who has tons of power and draws truckloads of walks, so even when he hits .210, he's actually good, as he was in 2011 at Double-A Harrisburg (.210 AVG/.367 OBP/.446 SLG). Taylor is the youthful, athletic outfielder, and Lombardozzi is the perfect fit as an advanced prospect who can play both up-the-middle positions.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn't deal Williams, but I'd throw Heathcott in there.