Buying low on starting pitchers...

[Spitball]

Maybe this belongs on the off season thread, but it seems to stray from the main idea. Anyway, the Red Sox need to acquire help for the rotation. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz seem set but injuries obviously happen. Next season it will need some help and current long term failures and a depleted stock of prospects seem to have made a major acquisition difficult.

 

It greatly bothers me so I have brainstormed some possible options. These are some pitchers who might be obtainable without signing to a long term contract or without giving up major prospects. I have probably left out some names and have not looked up every pitcher's status. Hopefully, this will give us something to discuss.

 

Edinson Volquez - My favorite buy low candidate. Once traded for Josh Hamilton. Has electric stuff. Started game one of playoffs last year for Reds against Phillies . He had TJ surgery in 2009 so that might explain recent problems.

 

Bruce Chen - Maybe Jamie Moyer lite. The Sox almost acquired him to pitch the playoff that never happened. A crafty lefthander who has gotten better with age.

 

Ryan Dempster - A bulldog who has a player's option with Cubs for 2012. His contract is expensive at about $12 million.

 

Aaron Harang - Former NL strikeout leader who had a bounce back year.

 

Javier Vazquez - Who knows what he will do from year to year. He will give 190 innings and better than the Sox had from anyone not named Beckett, Lester, or Buchholz.

 

Jake Peavy - He could have a bounceback year. Injury prone but an ace-type stuff.

 

Carlos Zambrano - Hmmm...maybe a change of scenery.

 

Others - Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Kevin Slowey, Joe Blanton, Jon Garland, , Jeremy Guthrie...

 

I know there are a lot of NL pitchers here, but I don't buy the AL east vs NL failure theory that so many here buy into. Buying low requires a willingness to take a chance for a high end return. I am more worried about the pay big bucks for long year theory that resulted in Lackey and Burnett type failures.

[jung]

I know there are a lot of NL pitchers here, but I don't buy the AL east vs NL failure theory that so many here buy into. Buying low requires a willingness to take a chance for a high end return. I am more worried about the pay big bucks for long year theory that resulted in Lackey and Burnett type failures.

 

Well you start with the fact that there is no DH in the NL so the pitcher gets to face the opposing pitcher every ninth guy up. That is a huge break. I think at the first level it is difficult for pitchers to come over and deal with the fact that there really is no place to rest in the lineup. In the NL they actually work toward the pitchers position in the batting order figuring that unless the opposing pitcher is going to be removed for a PH, all they really need to do is get to two outs and the pitcher and they are out of the inning. So the whole process of working the game changes when they move over to the AL. Then the added difficulty in coming east is having to face the Yankees and Sox for sixteen games. Theoretically a starting pitcher will see one or the other four times during the year. These days the Rays are tough outs as well.

 

There is no doubt that the larger change is in coming over to the AL from the NL and then the amount of hitting that generally resides in the AL East just makes it a bit more difficult. The point is that the combination does make for the biggest pitching transition in baseball. Heck the experts even talk about issues coming from the AL West to the AL East but I still don't think that is as big a deal as coming from the NL to the AL.

 

Where is does not matter is that a great pitcher in the NL is still going to be a great pitcher in the AL East. For comparisons you do have to add something to their ERA and other stats or you are going to fool yourself into thinking that a guy pitching over there is going to produce the same stats in the AL. He is not.

[Spitball]

Where is does not matter is that a great pitcher in the NL is still going to be a great pitcher in the AL East. For comparisons you do have to add something to their ERA and other stats or you are going to fool yourself into thinking that a guy pitching over there is going to produce the same stats in the AL. He is not.

 

We are talking about maybe four at bats per game with some pinch hitters factored in there. But, the point is how to acquire a quality pitcher at an affordable rate. Lackey piched in the AL, faced DH batters, and look how that worked out.

[jung]

If looking for pitchers that might not cost much money for one reason or another....nor performing I guess, then look for pitchers that have stuff but are not getting the job done. If they don't have stuff then you are just bringing in another team's problem with little upside even if you get him straightened out. If the guy has stuff and is "cheap" to bring in because he is not getting it done then you at least have the opportunity to really do something special if you can turn him around. People in Sox nation hate AJ Burnett because of the laundry he wears but he is a good example of a starting pitcher that is all screwed up but has great stuff. Not saying AJ is a possibility but that is the kind of "screwed up" or "not too costly" guy I would look for.

[Spitball]

Then why not move on and respond to another thread? I don't blame you if you think there is no reason to look towards alternative methods to acquire a pitcher on the low end, but at least give another suggestion.

[jung]

I think that is what I just did. Look for a guy that has stuff but is undervalued probably because he is not performing for some reason or another. There may be somebody like that on your list. I did not review those guys to see if there is anybody like that or not and it looked to me like you had already reviewed them in some detail and might know if that group can be resorted from that perspective

 

or

 

are you thinking that i opted out of the thread because there is nobody like that on the list?

 

Volquez might be interesting since TJ surgery often changes the guy's arm completely. They sometimes come back with pitches that do different things than what they did even when their arms were healthy but I did not know if you were saying that in his case TJ has really sort of tamed his arm and that is why he is struggling. He is only making a $1.6M and he sure has not been overworked at least over the career.

 

Peavy is making Lackey money but is probably twice the pitcher at this point. I guess he does not exactly fit the buy low profile for that kinda' cash. Probably can't afford a guy that is injury prone if the money is that high.

[Emmz]

Please, not Vazquez or Garland. They're both garbage.

[a700hitter]

Paul Byrd's price would be very reasonable. Lol! I'm all for signing a couple of these low value pitchers as depth In the minors or the major league bullpen, but first, they need to stock the rotation with reliable major league arms. And no, Wakefield doesn't fall into any category. He's got nothing left.

[Interestedobserver]

IIRC, it adds half a run to come to the AL. Quality pitchers will be fine in either league. Zambrano is a head case. Stay away. The Mets look to be aiming for contending in 13 or 14. They may be willing to listen to offers for Dickey. He's signed to a cheap contract, is a knuckleballer, and may be available for some decent minor league prospects. He's gone against the Yankees, and he has AL experience. His era over the last two years is something like 3.08.

[Spitball]

I think that is what I just did. Look for a guy that has stuff but is undervalued probably because he is not performing for some reason or another. There may be somebody like that on your list. I did not review those guys to see if there is anybody like that or not and it looked to me like you had already reviewed them in some detail and might know if that group can be resorted from that perspective

 

or

 

are you thinking that i opted out of the thread because there is nobody like that on the list?

 

No, this list was just thrown out there to spark disussion. I hope there are others out there basically to fill out the rotation and create insurance against injury. None of us want to see Wakefield or Lackey out there again , and Miller is not the type of insurance we want next year.

 

Volquez might be interesting since TJ surgery often changes the guy's arm completely. They sometimes come back with pitches that do different things than what they did even when their arms were healthy but I did not know if you were saying that in his case TJ has really sort of tamed his arm and that is why he is struggling. He is only making a $1.6M and he sure has not been overworked at least over the career.

 

His control has been terrible since TJ surgery, but he throws very hard with lots of movement. He had a superior change before the surgery, but I have not heard much said since. Like you said, he is cheap and has a high ceiling.

 

Peavy is making Lackey money but is probably twice the pitcher at this point. I guess he does not exactly fit the buy low profile for that kinda' cash. Probably can't afford a guy that is injury prone if the money is that high.

 

You are probably right. He is too expensive and too injury prone. Kenny Williams is a proactive gm though and may be willing to work something out finacially if he decides to rework the structure of the White Sox.

 

I also wonder about working something out with the Mets for Santana. He is also has injury problems and expensive, but maybe something could be worked out with the Mets to balance out the risk. Just a thought.

[Spitball]

IIRC' date=' it adds half a run to come to the AL. Quality pitchers will be fine in either league. Zambrano is a head case. Stay away. The Mets look to be aiming for contending in 13 or 14. They may be willing to listen to offers for Dickey. He's signed to a cheap contract, is a knuckleballer, and may be available for some decent minor league prospects. He's gone against the Yankees, and he has AL experience. His era over the last two years is something like 3.08.[/quote']

 

I like the idea of R.A. Dickey. He is signed through 2012 with team option for 2013 at $7.8 million, so he would be affordable. I don't know what it would take to get him. The Mets are likely to be in rebuilding mode for a few years and developing prospects might be acceptable.

[Spitball]

Wandy Rodriguez might not exactly be on the low, but his contract might at least reduce the return the Astros could demand. The Sox don't have a lot of major league ready prospects, and Houston is at least a few years away from contention. They might match up well with Boston.

 

Again, Rodriguez is NL, but the Central Division is full of hitters' parks. Also, the Sox would not need him to be a top of their rotation starter, but a pitcher to pitch well in the 4 or 5 spot.

[jung]

Boy seeing the way Salty struggled with Wake this year do we really want to bring another knuckler in here? To be honest I was almost looking forward to not seeing Salty stab out there with his glove hoping the ball hits the thing since I don't think they will bring Wake back. Geez it was getting to the point where he would have been better off throwing his whole body in front of the ball hoping he could keep it it in front of him.

 

I wonder how Lavarnway is with knucklers. There are so few knucklers anymore where does a catcher go to learn?

 

In reality I would love to see the Sox end up a more flexible team in many ways....no more knuckler so no more knuckler catcher for one and no more dedicated DH would make me happy.

[Dojji]

We could be headed in that direction, if we call up Lavs.

 

Lavs and Salty split catching

 

Lavs and Youk split DH

 

Youk and Lowrie and maybe Aviles split third.