Would you do an Ellsbury for Lincecum trade?

[Dojji]

Youkilis would be my starting point, but they have Brandon Belt and KungFu Panda so I'm not sure how interested they would be in that deal.

 

It seems to me that Youkilis would be the starting point for a lot of potential deals.

 

Any trade for premium pitching talent begins and ends with Lavarnway right now. Other teams have been watching as he was one of the few guys to stand up and be counted this September, and his minor league numbers are absurd. Teams will push for him to be in the deal.

[example1]

Any trade for premium pitching talent begins and ends with Lavarnway right now. Other teams have been watching as he was one of the few guys to stand up and be counted this September' date=' and his minor league numbers are absurd. Teams will push for him to be in the deal.[/quote']

 

Even for teams that have Buster Posey? I don't think so.

[Dojji]

The Giants would be fully justified in going after a second premium catcher, especially if they could leverage one of them to play another position. Failing that, flip the guy you don't need. Take the BPA when dealing for prospects, and do it regardless of actual needs. Right now, the BPA in terms of value is easily Lavarnway.

[example1]

The Giants would be fully justified in going after a second premium catcher' date=' especially if they could leverage one of them to play another position. Failing that, flip the guy you don't need. Take the BPA when dealing for prospects, and do it regardless of actual needs. Right now, the BPA in terms of value is easily Lavarnway.[/quote']

 

I think you're getting ahead of yourself with Lavarnway as a "premium catcher". At such a defense heavy position it actually matters that his defense isn't that good. I think he'll be a great fit for the Sox as an affordable power-hitting catcher, but think Mike Napoli a few years ago, not Buster Posey or Joe Mauer.

 

Napoli wouldn't be the main asking piece in a trade for a premium pitcher like Cain.

 

The question is would the Sox be willing to trade Youkilis + a prospect or two for one year of Cain? I am skeptical.

[Dojji]

Mike Napoli is kinda what I'm hoping to see from Lavarnway, but then, Napoli is a better catcher than he gets credit for, his issue has been how to preserve his unlimited power potential, rather than any deficiency of skill, and I see Lavarnway having much the same controversy as he goes through his big league career.

 

Not only is his bat elite, but while his catching skills are raw, there's nothing stopping him from improving them in the big leagues the way Tek did and Salty is doing. No one remains a snapshot of what they were when they debuted as a rookie, and while Lavarnway's defensive form is not great now, I see no reason he can't improve on it. He does have the talent to get much better if he can put it together.

[example1]

Mike Napoli is kinda what I'm hoping to see from Lavarnway, but he is a much better catcher than he gets credit for, and his tools are stronger than his skills right now.

 

Not only is his bat elite, but while his catching skills are raw, there's nothing stopping him from improving them in the big leagues the way Tek did and Salty is doing.

 

Regardless, the GIants are going to "start and end" (or whatever) conversations for a guy like Cain for their eventual backup catcher, which is what he would be. He might be required as part of a package, but he's not going to be the focal point for them.

 

He might have more sway with Seattle, honestly.

[Dojji]

Lavarnway is not their eventual backup catcher. If they can't do better than that for playing time with the guy, they'll flip him like we did with Andy Marte despite having Mike Lowell.

[example1]

Lavarnway is not their eventual backup catcher. If they can't do better than that for playing time with the guy' date=' they'll flip him like we did with Andy Marte despite having Mike Lowell.[/quote']

 

I meant that he would be the Giant's eventual backup catcher. Stick with me here Dojji.

[jung]

Well if the Sox don't have Lavarnway they are very weak up the middle. It is pretty hard to be strong up the middle with a catcher that is not even average. While not having Wake to catch would help Salty immensely his throwing is a bigger problem than his receiving. i eventually got the feeling that Salty did not have any idea where the ball was going once it left his hand.

 

I think Salty is the consummate second string catcher. I have not looked at his contract info and he is probably yet another player we are paying to much if he is the backup but what else is new for these Sox. 2012 would be a year of Larvarnway and Salty sharing catching duties in my view so Salty would still get a good deal of work in 2012. Are we thinking that one if the other catchers in the system is really the guy here eventually? I cannot offer an opinion on that one.

[Dojji]

I meant that he would be the Giant's eventual backup catcher. Stick with me here Dojji.

 

I know. Read what I said again.

[example1]

I know. Read what I said again.

 

Okay. Maybe you're right. My bad. It's risky, but we know a lot of teams would want Lavarnway.

 

I would expect the Giants to ask for Kalish first, but he's untouchable. I think Lavarnway shouldn't be moved either, at least not in a deal with someone like Youkilis.

[Spitball]

Youkilis would be my starting point, but they have Brandon Belt and KungFu Panda so I'm not sure how interested they would be in that deal.

 

It seems to me that Youkilis would be the starting point for a lot of potential deals.

 

Youkilis and Lavarnway would probably have to be packaged in a three-way deal. I don't see either fitting the Giants' most pressing needs. The problem is finding a team desperately in need of what the Sox can provide.

 

The Giants need an offensively gifted center fielder, a shortstop, and a leadoff hitter badly. They are expected to be hard players for Jose Reyes but they will need more than just one element to improve that horrible offense.

 

It is hard to find a third party. The contenders won't trade away what would bring a Matt Cain so it has to be a team rebuilding and in need of either prospects or salary relief. Houston has Carlos Lee but he won't get it done. The Cubs have Soriano but forget that. The Mets' David Wright is worthless at this point. Seattle has no one. Minnesota has Denard Spann, but he won't be near enough. Oakland is out.

 

Who then?

[Palodios]

Okay. Maybe you're right. My bad. It's risky, but we know a lot of teams would want Lavarnway.

 

I would expect the Giants to ask for Kalish first, but he's untouchable. I think Lavarnway shouldn't be moved either, at least not in a deal with someone like Youkilis.

 

I do not see Youkilis and Lavarnway being traded. Going into 2011, righthanded offense was a big concern. Ortiz's favorable splits helped the situation, but in light of the character issues in this clubhouse, it sounds like he'll be gone. Losing all three of those players would be a very big problem for the organization offensively.

[Dojji]

One team that stands out as one that could use both Youkilis and Lavarnway is the Mariners.

[Spitball]

I'm not sure Youkilis's off season and injuries make him real attractive to teams at this point. It is just the way things go on the trade market. He has value but not like he did before this past season. A team taking him would expect to pay low for most recent production.

[Spitball]

One team that stands out as one that could use both Youkilis and Lavarnway is the Mariners.

 

But if you are talking for Felix, they are not enough. If a three-way for Cain, they don't have enough.

 

Perhaps a four-way with Cincinnati. Brandon Phillips (owed $13 million in 2012), Reddick, and Youkilis to SF. Boston takes Arroyo's contract $13 million for two years and sends Lavarnway to KC who send the Reds a pitching prospect other than Montgomery or Lamb. Boston gets Cain.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox give up Youk, Reddick, Lavarnway, and take 26 million of another bust pitcher for Cain? Yikes.

[Spitball]

Perhaps a four-way with Cincinnati. Brandon Phillips (owed $13 million in 2012), Reddick, and Youkilis to SF. Boston takes Arroyo's contract $13 million for two years and sends Lavarnway to KC who send the Reds a pitching prospect other than Montgomery or Lamb. Boston gets Cain.

 

This came too quickly off the top of my head. I think the Giants need more for Cain. Also, I believe the Reds are giving up too much and not getting much beyond salary relief. They already have Cordero's contract coming off the books.

[Dojji]

This is becoming too elaborate and fantastical. I suspect this will be a quiet offseason tradewise and we're going to wind up graced with Lackey's presence again next year.

 

The sad fact is that the Lackey and Crawaford fiascos limit our options rather severely in terms of adding more players. Henry's financial depth isn't bottomless, and again for the second year straight, no playoff revenue -- no ROI. We're going to be looking to drop payroll, not add it.

[NativeBostonian]

Well' date=' first of all, unless you are Theo Epstein, [i']you[/i] wouldn't be able to trade anyone. Second, Lincecum has a longer track record of success than Ellsbury. How do you know Ells didn't just have a career year? He has never hit double figures in homeruns until this year at any level. And, why would Epstein trade an outfielder who just had a career year for a two time Cy Young winner? Because the Red Sox just had a historic fall because their starting pitching was awful.

 

I would love to see them get C.J.Wilson or other ace type but don't see that happening. They need to upgrade their starting pitching by any means possible.

 

First off, I know I'm not Theo, and have no power to trade anyone. I don't see the point in bringing that up. That's because the question wasn't would Theo trade him, it was, "Would you do an Ellsbury for Lincecum trade?" So, I gave you my answer, based on if I was in the spot to trade anyone. So, don't attack me for answering your question. Secondly, all I am saying is, the way the Red Sox luck, with starting pitchers have been going, why would you trade someone who just had an MVP year for you, for someone who hasn't pitched in a Red Sox uniform, and or in the AL East? It could end up being another Eric Gagne for all we know. That would be another huge bust and everyone would yet again be flip flopper and want Theo's head for a move they originally wanted.

[Spitball]

First off' date=' I know I'm not Theo, and have no power to trade anyone. I don't see the point in bringing that up. That's because the question wasn't would Theo trade him, it was, "would you trade Ells"? So, I gave you my answer, based on if I was in the spot to trade anyone. So, don't attack me for answering your question.[/quote']

 

You are correct. I apologize.

 

Secondly' date=' all I am saying is. The way the Red Sox luck with starting pitchers have been going. Why would you trade someone who just had an MVP year for someone who hasn't pitched in a Red Sox uniform or in the AL East. It could end up being another Eric Gagne for all we know.[/quote']

 

The Red Sox need better starting pitching to compete. They have guys who have "pitched in a Red Sox uniform or in the AL East"... and we know they can't be counted upon.

 

Branch Rickey once said, "It's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Ellsbury had a historic year, perhaps a career year. He has never hit homers in double figures before. He has had injuries. The Sox need pitching.

 

I just don't see what the Sox can offer to improve their pitching. Youkilis is coming off his worst year and ended up injured. Lavarnway is too unproven and unpolished to be of great value.

[NativeBostonian]

You are correct. I apologize.

 

 

 

The Red Sox need better starting pitching to compete. They have guys who have "pitched in a Red Sox uniform or in the AL East"... and we know they can't be counted upon.

 

Branch Rickey once said, "It's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Ellsbury had a historic year, perhaps a career year. He has never hit homers in double figures before. He has had injuries. The Sox need pitching.

 

I just don't see what the Sox can offer to improve their pitching. Youkilis is coming off his worst year and ended up injured. Lavarnway is too unproven and unpolished to be of great value.

 

No hard feeling, dude. But, I don't think the solution is much further then your bullpen. IMO Aceves is the guy to turn to. Stretch his arm out in spring training, and you have a starter.

[Spitball]

No hard feeling' date=' dude. But, I don't think the solution is much further then your bullpen. IMO Aceves is the guy to turn to. Stretch his arm out in spring training, and you have a starter.[/quote']

 

Ugh! That is like putting a band aid on a gushing wound...while robbing Peter (the pen) to pay Paul (the rotation).

 

Aceves has not been successful as a starter...ever. The whip is lopsided enough but the K/9 is the teller. He has k/9 at a 4.6 rate as a starter which is in the totally scary/unacceptable range. He is a reliever. He is valuable in the Sox bullpen and not as a starter. It is the basic Peter Principle. Don't move someone out of their area of success to an area where they will fail.

[vjcsmoke]

Unless you're getting King Felix, there's no way I trade Ellsbury. He's a 30/30 Rickey Henderson type of leadoff hitter. You don't trade that away.

 

Our problem is that Carl Crawford sucks royally, Lackey sucks big time, Drew is washed up, and Youkilis got hurt. Also does anyone REALLY believe that Scutaro is a starting shortstop at the ML level? Because I don't.

[Spitball]

Unless you're getting King Felix' date=' there's no way I trade Ellsbury. He's a 30/30 Rickey Henderson type of leadoff hitter. You don't trade that away.[/quote']If you have a weakness, you have to take from your strength to correct the weakness. Ellsbury had a career year and the starting pitching was awful. The Sox were first or second in every major offensive catagory. The starting pitching was near the bottom in almost every catagory. it needs to be balanced out when the playoffs are not a consequence.

 

Our problem is that Carl Crawford sucks royally' date=' Lackey sucks big time, Drew is washed up, and Youkilis got hurt. Also does anyone REALLY believe that Scutaro is a starting shortstop at the ML level? Because I don't.[/quote']

 

I agree with most of that, but Scutaro is not the problem. Not even close to being a major problem.

[vjcsmoke]

If you have a weakness' date=' you have to take from your strength to correct the weakness. Ellsbury had a career year and the starting pitching was awful. The Sox were first or second in every major offensive catagory. The starting pitching was near the bottom in almost every catagory. it needs to be balanced out when the playoffs are not a consequence.[/quote']

 

Rather, it's your unspoken presumption that Ellsbury will significantly drop off. I disagree. How foolish would the Jays look now if they had traded Jose Bautista over the last winter meetings? Instead they took a risk, extended him early to a 5 year/65 million dollar deal and have an absolute bargain in terms of WAR per dollar spent.

 

Do you know the final war rankings for position players in 2011?

1. Jacoby Ellsbury 9.4

2. Matt Kemp 8.7

3. Jose Bautista 8.3

4. Dustin Pedroia 8.0

5. Ryan Braun 7.8

 

Ellsbury had the HIGHEST WAR of any player in the major leagues. He has blossomed, just the way Bautista has blossomed, just as Pedroia has blossomed. It would make far MORE sense to lock up Ellsbury to a Pedroia or Bautista type deal and ensure that the Red Sox keep 2 of the highest WAR producers in all of MLB.

 

It would be great to get more starting pitching. But again unless you're getting a can't miss stud like King Felix in return, I say hang onto Ellsbury, he's our future #3 hitter in the heart of the Red Sox lineup for the next 5+ years. I say starting pitching is more likely to come via free agency than trade. Sure we got bitten by Lackey but that doesn't mean we should stop trying.

 

I agree with most of that, but Scutaro is not the problem. Not even close to being a major problem.

 

Scutaro's not a problem but he isn't a solution either. He doesn't have the athleticism or range to be a major league starting shortstop, and defense up the middle C/SS/CF are absolutely vital to success. When a pitcher knows that the guys behind him will fully back him up, that gives him that much more confidence.

 

Give me Reyes and you'll see better defense, and an even more potent lineup for the Red Sox. If we have to find a way to dump Crawford to be able to afford Reyes, then i say do it. Crawford has speed and athleticism but has never displayed the leadoff skills that the Red Sox need. You've also got to wonder if Crawfords woes in Boston mean that he either can't handle the pressure of playing in Boston or if he's just not suited for Fenway.

[Palodios]

Unless you're getting King Felix, there's no way I trade Ellsbury. He's a 30/30 Rickey Henderson type of leadoff hitter. You don't trade that away.

 

Our problem is that Carl Crawford sucks royally, Lackey sucks big time, Drew is washed up, and Youkilis got hurt. Also does anyone REALLY believe that Scutaro is a starting shortstop at the ML level? Because I don't.

 

I'm sorry if his .299 average isn't good enough for you.

[NativeBostonian]

If you have a weakness, you have to take from your strength to correct the weakness. Ellsbury had a career year and the starting pitching was awful. The Sox were first or second in every major offensive catagory. The starting pitching was near the bottom in almost every catagory. it needs to be balanced out when the playoffs are not a consequence.

 

 

 

I agree with most of that, but Scutaro is not the problem. Not even close to being a major problem.

 

Who do you replace Ellsbury with then? Now the Red Sox are going to need two outfielders, if a trade like this is made, with little to no money to spend. Doesn't make any since with the free agent pool, as far as outfielders go, being significant week.

[Spitball]

Who do you replace Ellsbury with then? Now the Red Sox are going to need two outfielders' date=' if a trade like this is made, with little to no money to spend. Doesn't make any since with the free agent pool, as far as outfielders go, being significant week.[/quote']

 

Outfielders are much easier to replace when you have a team that leads the league in most offensive categories, especially when you already have Kalish and Reddick in the organization. Pitching wins, but I probably don't have to tell you that.

[Dojji]

I do not understand this frantic eagerness to trade Ellsbury at all. If anything we should be looking to build a team around him.