Should They Pay Ellsbury the $20M He May Get Now?

[stonedtone]

I really think this guy is only going to get better. His marketing value diminished very much last year, but now it's thru the roof. If he does this all year and maybe next, he'll get a ton of $. Is it smart to throw big money at him now?

[mvp 78]

No. Way pay him extra now? No need when there are arbitration years left.

[lospunchados]

There's no way they will pay him 20 mil with arbitration eligibilty left. The highest anyone has got is around 10 mil so they could reasonably assume him to get around 10-12.5 or like lincecum(2year 23mil), avoid it and sign a multi year deal around 10-13mil per year to buy out his remaining years of arbitration. Lincecum got that kind of deal after winning back to back cy young awards so giving ellsbury 20 mil right now wouldn't make any sense.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He isn't a FA until 2014, so buy out 3 of his FA years at around 15-17mm per year, and then give him around 10-12mm per year in his 2 arb years.

 

5 years/65-75mm would be a good deal for the Red Sox if they want to offer him that.

 

Honestly, if they gave him 6/100 I'd be fine with it.

[YAZMAN]

Arbitration, it's fair and blameless.

[stonedtone]

No. Way pay him extra now? No need when there are arbitration years left.

But you may be able to lock him up to years. Boris likes to wait it out though

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

He isn't a FA until 2014, so buy out 3 of his FA years at around 15-17mm per year, and then give him around 10-12mm per year in his 2 arb years.

 

5 years/65-75mm would be a good deal for the Red Sox if they want to offer him that.

 

Honestly, if they gave him 6/100 I'd be fine with it.

 

Great deal for the Sox. Maybe if they can slip Boras a roofie, that could get done. Let's all calm our pants tent on Jacoby Ellsbury. It's one amazing season. 2008-2009 he was an OK hitter who played pretty bad defense. To me, the only thing about this year that I would be willing to bank on going forward is that he continues to play a much improved CF.

 

I'm not willing to bet ~20mil/year that he will produce at this level for the duration of whatever deal he might sign if I'm the Red Sox. Never pay for a career year. We have him under our control for two more full-seasons. Considering the agent, we know he's not coming at a discount and that he'll go year to year like Papelbon to maximize his earnings. Let's see what happens over the next two years.

 

What if in a couple years it's too hard to fit Ells and Lester, I'd personally rather keep Lester.

[SoxSport]

yeah--they sure did screw themselves giving Crawford $20 million.

You can bet Boras will remind them of that every day.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's got 2 yrs to free agency and he's an outfielder. If he were a pitcher, I could understand taking a guaranteed deal since he'd be one arm injury away from the scrap heap. But a guy like Ells who is showing serious power should go yr to yr. And Boras is representing him, so he will go yr to yr. Chances are, the sox part ways with him after 2013. He'll turn 30 during 2014, and even though the power could be a big boon for him, speed first guys after they are 30 dont typically age well. Ells will get a 7 yr deal from someone, I just dont think it will be Theo again after he already has one in Crawford. Especially with Kalish brewing in the minors

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's got 2 yrs to free agency and he's an outfielder. If he were a pitcher' date=' I could understand taking a guaranteed deal since he'd be one arm injury away from the scrap heap. But a guy like Ells who is showing serious power should go yr to yr. And Boras is representing him, so he will go yr to yr. Chances are, the sox part ways with him after 2013. He'll turn 30 during 2014, and even though the power could be a big boon for him, speed first guys after they are 30 dont typically age well. Ells will get a 7 yr deal from someone, I just dont think it will be Theo again after he already has one in Crawford. Especially with Kalish brewing in the minors[/quote']

 

Kalish appears to be the RF of the future, especially after the recent drop off from Reddick. I would be much more surprised if the Sox parted ways with Ellsbury than I would if they signed him. Power, Average, Speed, Elite Defense (in 2011, at least), and an average arm is not something you watch walk away. If Ellsbury continues to play this well for the next 2 years, I would imagine the Sox will pony up the funds for him.

 

He's a FA in 2014 for the first time. Let's not forget that after 2014, we've got $33mm coming off the books between Lackey and Beckett alone. I highly doubt that Theo will let a staggered year come between him and an elite player.

[SoxSport]

Kalish appears to be the RF of the future, especially after the recent drop off from Reddick. I would be much more surprised if the Sox parted ways with Ellsbury than I would if they signed him. Power, Average, Speed, Elite Defense (in 2011, at least), and an average arm is not something you watch walk away. If Ellsbury continues to play this well for the next 2 years, I would imagine the Sox will pony up the funds for him.

 

He's a FA in 2014 for the first time. Let's not forget that after 2014, we've got $33mm coming off the books between Lackey and Beckett alone. I highly doubt that Theo will let a staggered year come between him and an elite player.

 

Ells has plenty of time to show this season was not a fluke. And he'll get that time.

They are in no rush to sign him.

 

Their bigger problem right now is how to get Buchholz back, and make Lackey and Wakefield vanish.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Kalish appears to be the RF of the future, especially after the recent drop off from Reddick. I would be much more surprised if the Sox parted ways with Ellsbury than I would if they signed him. Power, Average, Speed, Elite Defense (in 2011, at least), and an average arm is not something you watch walk away. If Ellsbury continues to play this well for the next 2 years, I would imagine the Sox will pony up the funds for him.

 

 

You think a one month drop off in a players performance affects the Sox's long term plans for a player? I would be pretty surprised if that were the case. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Scouts get paid a lot of money to find a player's flaws, and especially when you're a young player who's having a lot of success early on you know the league will get the book on you soon. The past month for Reddick doesn't mean anything to the Red Sox, it's how he adjusts and bounces back that matters to them. Theo's said numerous times that it's an important part of every players development to fail at every level. That's when you learn whether or not a guy can play every day and that's what we're about to learn about Reddick. Also, I don't know how we can say a guy who lost a year to injury is more likely the RF of the future over a guy who is probably going to hit .275/.330/.450 in the bigs this year in a worst case scenario.

 

I don't think Reddick or Kalish has any impact on Ells' future with the Sox. If he continues as a perennial .300 30/30 threat, he's going to market and thats not a good thing, but I think he'll be a Red Sox for a while.

 

He's a FA in 2014 for the first time. Let's not forget that after 2014, we've got $33mm coming off the books between Lackey and Beckett alone. I highly doubt that Theo will let a staggered year come between him and an elite player.

 

I could be wrong, but Lester is a FA the same year, no? I'm not saying this will be the case, but if it comes down to Lester or Ells I tend to doubt the Sox would choose to pay Ellsbury.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that executives around MLB were stunned that Weaver accepted the Angels' five-year, $85MM extension offer. They expected the Scott Boras client to hold out for more or test his value on the open market...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

Well, I guess anything is possible. Just goes to show, even a Boras client might opt for security over top dollar. That said, I think Weaver is in love with LA. I doubt Ellsbury feels that way here in Boston, especially after what happened with the misdiagnosis of his ribs last year and the way he was raked over the coals by the media here, but thats just speculation on my part.

[jacksonianmarch]

Remember something here, Weaver is a pitcher. Pitcher's are one pitch away from being done.