Theo's Free Agent Booms and Busts

[Spudboy]

Someone has to say it.

 

 

J.D. Drew.

 

OH s***!!!

 

Glad I did not say it!!!

[Spudboy]

Matt Clement

 

He was good until he took one off the cranium. So I cut him some slack.

[a700hitter]

OH s***!!!

 

Glad I did not say it!!!

Don't tell Dipre. He'll come back for blood.

[redsoxrules]

Don't tell Dipre. He'll come back for blood.

 

he cant he's banned

[SoxSport]

lots of busts, but enough successes to look good.

[a700hitter]

he cant he's banned

Since when has banning ever stopped anyone.

[a700hitter]

lots of busts' date=' but enough successes to look good.[/quote']Other than Beltre, what big $ free agents were successes?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Since when has banning ever stopped anyone.

 

...but he actually has a life and wouldn't waste his time.

[a700hitter]

...but he actually has a life and wouldn't waste his time.

:lol:

[SoxSport]

I don't think Epstein could have anticipated his injury. He was a highly productive player year in and year out before he got hurt.

 

Theo's Ells to LF, Cameron to CF was a disaster. Epstein out of his realm.

 

But his Salty as regular catcher has worked out well.

 

Theo wins some, loses some. Except maybe at SS. He has been hexed there since letting

Cabrera go after winning a championship with him.Fixing what ain't broke, Danny Ainge style.

 

Drew, by the way, shouldn't be viewed as a disaster. Just an overpaid, good part-time player with a Bora$ level contract.

 

What keeps Epstein awake nights these days? Lackey for one. not the pitcher he signed. Buchholz, for another. probably can't win a championship without him. Crawford? he grades incomplete, but suddenly looks expendable with Kalish and Reddick in the wings. They would trade him for an ace starter in a minute.

[AtWork]

Theo's Ells to LF' date=' Cameron to CF was a disaster. Epstein out of his realm.[/quote']

 

I disagree. Ellsbury was coming off a terrible defensive year and before his injury, Cameron was a gold glove caliber CF.

[redsoxrules]

Someone has to say it.

 

 

J.D. Drew.

 

According to fangraphs here's what JD was worth

 

2007 7.6

2008 18.4

2009 22.5

2010 9.9

 

 

4 year average of 14.6

 

even with his poor year this year I wouldn't call his contract a bust.

[AtWork]

According to fangraphs here's what JD was worth

 

2007 7.6

2008 18.4

2009 22.5

2010 9.9

 

 

4 year average of 14.6

 

even with his poor year this year I wouldn't call his contract a bust.

 

Me either. He's been one of the best RF in baseball the last four years.

[AtWork]

...but he actually has a life and wouldn't waste his time.

 

Do you realize that you just said that to the only person on this site with over 25,000 posts?

[a700hitter]

According to fangraphs here's what JD was worth

 

2007 7.6

2008 18.4

2009 22.5

2010 9.9

 

 

4 year average of 14.6

 

even with his poor year this year I wouldn't call his contract a bust.

I wouldn't put this signing on my resume if I were Theo.

[a700hitter]

Jenks - Bust

 

Okajima - Great pick up. Served as set up man for 3 year.

Jenks has another year yet to go. He could redeem himself.

[Palodios]

According to fangraphs here's what JD was worth

 

2007 7.6

2008 18.4

2009 22.5

2010 9.9

 

 

4 year average of 14.6

 

even with his poor year this year I wouldn't call his contract a bust.

 

Except it was a five year contract, not a four year contract. The idea is that a player should perform well enough that if they decline in the later years that it makes up for the earlier years.

[AtWork]

When I get home, perhaps I'll look at all the FA signings since January 2003 and say whether they were paid more or less than their WAR value.

[redsoxrules]

Except it was a five year contract' date=' not a four year contract. The idea is that a player should perform well enough that if they decline in the later years that it makes up for the earlier years.[/quote']

 

You cant call a contract a bust for one year . I believed I've been told that 10 million times about Crawford .

[jacksonianmarch]

Theo's bread and butter has been trades and development. His shrewd resignings of guys he's developed has allowed the sox to absorb some signing mistakes

[Palodios]

You cant call a contract a bust for one year . I believed I've been told that 10 million times about Crawford .

 

The thing about Crawford is that we don't know. If he performs to 2009/2010 levels, and is worth 25 and 30 million dollars in 2012 and 2013, he'll be pretty much right back on track to contract value. With Drew, we already know he's worth less than his contract.

[a700hitter]

The thing about Crawford is that we don't know. If he performs to 2009/2010 levels' date=' and is worth 25 and 30 million dollars in 2012 and 2013, he'll be pretty much right back on track to contract value. With Drew, we already know he's worth less than his contract.[/quote']Theo is not going to put the Drew contract as an accomplishment on his self assessment at the end of the year.

[Emmz]

Someone has to say it.

 

 

J.D. Drew.

 

WAR disagrees with you.

[a700hitter]

WAR disagrees with you.

and Obama can probably find some statistic that shows that the economy is doing great, but I choose to believe my own eyes.

[Emmz]

The thing about Crawford is that we don't know. If he performs to 2009/2010 levels' date=' and is worth 25 and 30 million dollars in 2012 and 2013, he'll be pretty much right back on track to contract value. With Drew, we already know he's worth less than his contract.[/quote']

 

BS.

 

JD Drew earned his contract for 4 years, even with this year, he's close enough to where I'm not going to call him a bust.

 

You're still being hypocritical when you have the standard that Crawford is not a bust, even though he has earned less than 1m dollars this season. He's way behind, he'll have to have some stellar years to redeem his contract. JD Drew barely misses his contract in WAR, and you're calling him a bust.

[redsoxrules]

The thing about Crawford is that we don't know. If he performs to 2009/2010 levels' date=' and is worth 25 and 30 million dollars in 2012 and 2013, he'll be pretty much right back on track to contract value. With Drew, [b']we already know he's worth less than his contract[/b].

 

not by much , certainly not a bust witch is the topic of discussion

[SoxFanForsyth]

You cant call a contract a bust for one year . I believed I've been told that 10 million times about Crawford .

 

I don't see how you can't comprehend this.

 

JD Drew's first 4 years should have averaged out high enough that it would absorb his 5th year and his average worth would still be above $14mm. He's been worth $100,000 this year. At this point, if he doesn't contribute anymore, his will have provided $58.5mm of value, at a cost of $70mm for the Sox. So JD Drew, at this point, will need to contribute a value of $11.5mm over the last month of his contract to justify his contract, which he will not do.

 

Carl Crawford is in year 1 of a 7 year contract. He's got 6 years to create $140mm of value. Over the 2 years prior to his contract, he had an average value of $27.85mm. Over 6 years, that $167mm in value at a cost of $140mm. He will need to provide AAV of $23.33mm over the next 6 seasons to justify his contract, which, based on his past 2 years and his age, is very attainable.

 

There's a reason why you can call a contract a bust after one year. It's because it was his last year, and he didn't perform to the contract. Prior to this year, he had. But like Pal said. It was a 5 year contract, not a 4 year. You can't just neglect to consider this season. The difference between Drew and Crawford is that Carl has 6 years to realize his value. JD Drew has 1 month.

[Palodios]

BS.

 

JD Drew earned his contract for 4 years, even with this year, he's close enough to where I'm not going to call him a bust.

 

You're still being hypocritical when you have the standard that Crawford is not a bust, even though he has earned less than 1m dollars this season. He's way behind, he'll have to have some stellar years to redeem his contract. JD Drew barely misses his contract in WAR, and you're calling him a bust.

 

I'm not saying Crawford isn't a bust. I'm saying we do not have enough information to call him a bust.

[SoxFanForsyth]

BS.

 

JD Drew earned his contract for 4 years, even with this year, he's close enough to where I'm not going to call him a bust.

 

You're still being hypocritical when you have the standard that Crawford is not a bust, even though he has earned less than 1m dollars this season. He's way behind, he'll have to have some stellar years to redeem his contract. JD Drew barely misses his contract in WAR, and you're calling him a bust.

 

AAV of $23.33mm will justify his contract. Take this year and combine it with his past 2 years and he's had an AAV of 18.9mm, just 1.1mm under his contract amount, and he's having an absolutely horrid year, so I don't see how he can't perform to his prior years levels during the rest of his peak years, which are still in front of him

[Emmz]

and Obama can probably find some statistic that shows that the economy is doing great' date=' but I choose to believe my own eyes.[/quote']

 

Yeah, because that's not just lying. JD Drew was a productive player, a good outfielder and offensive weapon for most of his contract. His simple stats, for people who don't understand sabermetrics, show this as well. Just because he's not tuff like you'd like him to be, does not mean he's not valuable, because WAR takes that into account.

 

I can't imagine how good his WAR would be if he played 150 games a season, but hey, he barely missed his contract, which is not a bust to me. Carl Crawford, however, has a lot of work to do to make up for the value of his contract. You people can't pick and choose when to not apply WAR.