Crawford Lineup Shuffle?

[SCM33]

Somebody wake Tito up and remind him CC should be batting 2nd now that he's himself again at the plate. He's not stealing bases in the 6-hole' date=' which tells me he's a bit confused about his role. I think Tito's a bit confused, too, which is understandable considering all that talent he has to shuffle around. But he has to know he can't get pure CC until the guy is batting 2nd and stealing bases with Ellsbury. Those two guys can score a run with two walks and 3 steals batting 1-2. Trouble is, Tito does not value smallball.[/quote']

 

Im getting sick of hearing this......

 

Where does Pedroia hit? 6th??????? NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

 

He isnt hitting leadoff, and he isnt hitting 3 or 4, and Papi is off to one of his best starts in 3 years, so he isnt hitting 5.

 

If Crawford got his ass on base, hed have stolen bases. The fact he only has 7 SB's is a testament to his own shittiness to start the season, not the fact he is not hitting second.

 

Pedroia OBP: .353

Crawford OBP: .269

 

I dont know, to me it makes more sense to have the guy who gets on base more hitting second in front of AGON, Youk and Papi.

[ORS]

But he's fast....[/bot]

[WellBefore2004]

LOL at the people in this thread that think it's Tito's fault that Crawford sucks donkey ball's so far this season.

[SoxSport]

CC hit over .300 in May. Wake up. Did I say Wake? Pedey can hit anywhere. Ells and CC at 1-2 could be a terror if used properly. It'll happen, because Tito started the season that way.

[Dojji]

CC hit over .300 in May.

 

with a .328 OBP.

 

By the same token Pedroia had a higher obp (only .331, but still higher) and a much better steal rate in May (6 for 7), I'm as dismayed by the lack of quality contact from Pedroia as anyone else but he's doing a #2 hitter's basic job fairly well, and the hits will come.

[iortiz]

CC hit over .300 in May. Wake up. Did I say Wake? Pedey can hit anywhere. Ells and CC at 1-2 could be a terror if used properly. It'll happen' date=' because Tito started the season that way.[/quote']

 

Trust me, i was in the same mindset, maybe in another team that is not as deep as ours, he could take the 1-3 spot, but with this lineups' OBP/OPS, I don't see how it gonna happen. I suggest you check out the previous page of this thread, where i posted a table with the OBP/OPS of each payer and ORS' linear weight analysis in order to enlarge your criteria.

[Six4Three]

At least he's not in the Yankees' lineup. Lot's of those doubles and triples would be homers in Yankee Stadium. As with any expensive Red Sox/Yankee contract, 25% of the money is spent keeping the player off the others' team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Leave him where he is. Obviously, you've gotten him restarted. Before you rush him back to the top of the order, see if he can sustain his run now

[DirtDog]

Tell me the difference between a guy with speed batting 2nd or 6th.

 

*Crickets*

[Six4Three]

One has a speedy Ellsbury in front of him and the other has a base-clogging Ortiz.

 

One can score from first on an A-Gon double while the other gets stranded by Salty.

 

A team with Ells and CC should be double-stealing every couple days. A foreign concept to life-long Red Sox fans I'm sure.

[snydersminipretzels]

Pedroia can score from first on Gonzalez double, and besides the Red Sox have been one of the slower teams of the last decade. Whatever strategy they used seemed to work pretty well.

[Six4Three]

Pedroia averages one triple per year which is less than Ortiz. He hits 45-50 doubles by not being fast enough to reach third ten times per season. He's off to a good start SB-wise this year but has just 69 lifetime SB's.

 

The offensive strategy the Red Sox used during their WS years was Manny/Papi hitting about 150 homers between them. Those days are over. How about doing a little more of what has won the AL East two out of the last three years?

[snydersminipretzels]

Pedroia averages one triple per year which is less than Ortiz. He hits 45-50 doubles by not being fast enough to reach third ten times per season. He's off to a good start SB-wise this year but has just 69 lifetime SB's.

 

The offensive strategy the Red Sox used during their WS years was Manny/Papi hitting about 150 homers between them. Those days are over. How about doing a little more of what has won the AL East two out of the last three years?

 

The Red Sox strategy has always seemed to be get on base, and have hitters with XBH ability to drive them in. It hasn't been steal bases, and have weak OBP guys batting second. If we did what you wanted, many RBI opportunities simply wouldn't exist for Adrian Gonzalez. He is leading the league in RBI's, and that's mainly due to the ability of the lead guys to get on base. These hypothetical scenarios where Crawford scores on a Gonzalez double are imaginary. His .282 OBP isn't creating any RBI opportunities. Maybe he should get on for Saltalamacchia, before we let him try to get on for Gonzalez.

[snydersminipretzels]

Can you support this statistically? Because, I can make a decent case to the contrary.

 

The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases.

 

Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB....

 

BB: 0.33

SB: 0.30

 

So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out....

 

OUT: -0.27

 

Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth ....

 

30 * (0.33) = 10 runs

 

Crawfords is worth....

 

30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs

 

...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.

 

Didn't see this, but I really don't think the debate needs to go much further after this.

[SoxSport]

With the kind of pitching the Yankees are throwing out there this series, the Red Sox left handed hitters should be feasting.

 

Lowrie clearly belongs in the lineup at SS this series over Scutaro against RHP, but I understand he has some back problems keeping him out.

[Six4Three]

Didn't see this' date=' but I really don't think the debate needs to go much further after this.[/quote']

 

 

That completely undervalues speed on the base paths. This season:

 

 

Crawford: 9 walks, 58 hits, 8 stolen bases, 93 total bases, 31 runs

 

Pedroia: 41 walks, 57 hits, 13 stolen bases, 78 total bases, 31 runs

 

 

With 32 more walks, 5 more stolen bases (for now), and A-Gon/Youk/Ortiz batting behind him, Pedroia has scored 31 runs....

 

The same number CC managed to somehow score with the 7/8/9 guys hitting behind him.

 

How on earth could that possibly be???? If CC was in the 2-spot he'd have a helluva lot more runs than 31. And so would the Red Sox.

[Emmz]

So you're saying that because Carl Crawford is so much faster than Pedroia, that even though he's got a very noticeably lower OBP, he would be scoring more than Pedroia?

 

Your stats don't really prove your case, for all we can see it just says the Sox aren't driving in Pedroia as much as they should be. It's not his fault in that case. I think you'll need something a little more solid than that to prove your case.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would say that Carl is going to hit in the 2 slot tonight, but then I remembered CC is pitching and we'll go with Lowrie or Scutaro in the 2 slot.

[Dojji]

Scutaro to the 2 hole over Crawford please. We need a guy who can work the count and put up a good at bat. Crawford is rip-and-run, which is an awful 2 hole guy. HE needs to be in a middle of the lineup or a bottom of the lineup to use his skills to best effect.

 

Crawford is an extra base speed hitter, not a table setter. Not every player who happens to be fast should be deadbolted into the 1 or 2 holes.

[SCM33]

That completely undervalues speed on the base paths. This season:

 

 

Crawford: 9 walks, 58 hits, 8 stolen bases, 93 total bases, 31 runs

 

Pedroia: 41 walks, 57 hits, 13 stolen bases, 78 total bases, 31 runs

 

 

With 32 more walks, 5 more stolen bases (for now), and A-Gon/Youk/Ortiz batting behind him, Pedroia has scored 31 runs....

 

The same number CC managed to somehow score with the 7/8/9 guys hitting behind him.

 

How on earth could that possibly be???? If CC was in the 2-spot he'd have a helluva lot more runs than 31. And so would the Red Sox.

 

 

This might be one of the weakest arguments I have ever seen, and I cannot believe you actually put time in to posting this.

 

You are going to argue Crawford over Pedroia based on OTHER PLAYERS variables?

 

Get that crap out of here. Speed is overrated if you cant even get on base, how many more times do you have to hear this?

 

Did you even read ORS's post??? Clearly you didnt, so I will quote it for you:

 

The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases.

 

Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB....

 

BB: 0.33

SB: 0.30

 

So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out....

 

OUT: -0.27

 

Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth ....

 

30 * (0.33) = 10 runs

 

Crawfords is worth....

 

30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs

 

...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.

 

BTW, dont be shocked that Crawford is STILL NOT hitting second even with Pedroia out.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Scutaro to the 2 hole over Crawford please. We need a guy who can work the count and put up a good at bat. Crawford is rip-and-run, which is an awful 2 hole guy. HE needs to be in a middle of the lineup or a bottom of the lineup to use his skills to best effect.

 

Crawford is an extra base speed hitter, not a table setter. Not every player who happens to be fast should be deadbolted into the 1 or 2 holes.

 

Yeah. He was horrid in the 2 hole in Tampa. :dunno:

[TedWilliams101]

Still don't understand how we spent so much money on a career .777OPS with .335 OBP and a noodle arm. I do like Crawford and think the team is better with him, but how the hell did he get nearly Teixeira kinda money?

 

And I agree, I don't want him in the top of the lineup, he just doesn't get on enough.

[Emmz]

This might be one of the weakest arguments I have ever seen, and I cannot believe you actually put time in to posting this.

 

You are going to argue Crawford over Pedroia based on OTHER PLAYERS variables?

 

Get that crap out of here. Speed is overrated if you cant even get on base, how many more times do you have to hear this?

 

Did you even read ORS's post??? Clearly you didnt, so I will quote it for you:

 

 

 

BTW, dont be shocked that Crawford is STILL NOT hitting second even with Pedroia out.

 

I think he did, I just don't think he understands advanced stats.

[Emmz]

Yeah. He was horrid in the 2 hole in Tampa. :dunno:

 

If you're not on, you're not creating runs, and for those who are hitting 1-2, you need to be on, so that your 3-4-5 guys (usually your best run producers) can send you home.

 

I like Crawford, I'd like to see his OBP to get up, and for him to start racking up the hits again. However, Pedroia is on base at a much higher rate, which equals to more opportunities for runs, whether he's fast or not does not matter when the OBP differential is that significant.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This might be one of the weakest arguments I have ever seen, and I cannot believe you actually put time in to posting this.

 

You are going to argue Crawford over Pedroia based on OTHER PLAYERS variables?

 

Get that crap out of here. Speed is overrated if you cant even get on base, how many more times do you have to hear this?

 

Did you even read ORS's post??? Clearly you didnt, so I will quote it for you:

 

 

 

BTW, dont be shocked that Crawford is STILL NOT hitting second even with Pedroia out.

 

First off, since May 1st, Crawford is hitting .312/.341/.514. During that same span, Pedroia was hitting .241/.353/.323.

 

Look. Vintage Pedroia? Better hitter, better OBP, etc. Definitely. No doubt about it. But right now? And for the past month +, you gotta go with Crawford. The difference in their OBP over that span would be made up with Crawford's speed.

 

As far as the argument (not sure who posted it) about driving up the pitch count, that's absolutely a ridiculous argument. Crawford is seeing 3.76 P/PA, Pedroia is seeing 4.26 P/PA.

 

THAT'S 2 EXTRA PITCHES PER GAME!!! That is not a significant argument at all.

 

While Pedroia is out, Crawford is the ideal 2 slot hitter. Especially with him heating up.

 

.362/.403/.759/1.162 in last 15 games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If you're not on, you're not creating runs, and for those who are hitting 1-2, you need to be on, so that your 3-4-5 guys (usually your best run producers) can send you home.

 

I like Crawford, I'd like to see his OBP to get up, and for him to start racking up the hits again. However, Pedroia is on base at a much higher rate, which equals to more opportunities for runs, whether he's fast or not does not matter when the OBP differential is that significant.

 

He's heating up. His April numbers don't mean anything on June 9th. That's what I'm saying. I understand that his overall numbers may be low, but look at what he's done recently. He's got a .403 OBP and a 1.162 OPS in his last 15 games, which covers 62 PA. That's not just a 12-15 AB span where he's on fire. He's been tearing it up ever since Cleveland.

 

Look - If this was a rookie who we knew nothing about, I could see leaving him down in the line up. But when the 2 slot opens up and you've got a guy with a 1.162 OPS over the last 15 games that has 45-50 SB speed hitting in your 6 hole? You move him up. No questions asked.

[iortiz]

Still don't understand how we spent so much money on a career .777OPS with .335 OBP and a noodle arm. I do like Crawford and think the team is better with him, but how the hell did he get nearly Teixeira kinda money?

 

And I agree, I don't want him in the top of the lineup, he just doesn't get on enough.

 

Agree...I mentioned the same few posts ago...now, with the imminent miss of Peddy, he surly will have his shot.

 

Don't get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of CC (In fact I was very excited when the RS made the announcement that he was coming), he will produce in this team and I’m glad that he is part of this lineup. But If you see the thing, plain and simple, just as a business, I would say that we got a 6-8 luxury spot for this lineup, so...IMO they could hire a 6-8 spot for a considerable less amount of money with similar numbers; but i insist, as a fan i'm very excited that he's with the Boston Red Sox.

[redsoxrules]

He's heating up. His April numbers don't mean anything on June 9th. That's what I'm saying. I understand that his overall numbers may be low' date=' but look at what he's done recently. [b']He's got a .403 OBP [/b]and a 1.162 OPS in his last 15 games, which covers 62 PA. That's not just a 12-15 AB span where he's on fire. He's been tearing it up ever since Cleveland.

 

Look - If this was a rookie who we knew nothing about, I could see leaving him down in the line up. But when the 2 slot opens up and you've got a guy with a 1.162 OPS over the last 15 games that has 45-50 SB speed hitting in your 6 hole? You move him up. No questions asked.

 

No he dosent

[Emmz]

First off, since May 1st, Crawford is hitting .312/.341/.514. During that same span, Pedroia was hitting .241/.353/.323.

 

Look. Vintage Pedroia? Better hitter, better OBP, etc. Definitely. No doubt about it. But right now? And for the past month +, you gotta go with Crawford. The difference in their OBP over that span would be made up with Crawford's speed.

 

As far as the argument (not sure who posted it) about driving up the pitch count, that's absolutely a ridiculous argument. Crawford is seeing 3.76 P/PA, Pedroia is seeing 4.26 P/PA.

 

THAT'S 2 EXTRA PITCHES PER GAME!!! That is not a significant argument at all.

 

While Pedroia is out, Crawford is the ideal 2 slot hitter. Especially with him heating up.

 

.362/.403/.759/1.162 in last 15 games.

 

There's not really any need to change lineups whenever someone's having a hot streak. He's playing above his career averages, and his career averages ain't even enough to get Pedroia off the number two spot even if he's not hitting well. If managers changed their lineups for whenever someone was having a hot streak, you'd never get a consistent lineup.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No he dosent

 

Oh he doesn't? Sorry pal. You think I just make up these stats? Why don't you do me a quick favor. Run on over to baseball-reference.com, look up Carl Crawford's Game Logs, and use the Click to Sum function to summarize his games from May 23 - June 8.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=crawfca02&t=b&year=

 

That's the link right there. Go check that out and then maybe go edit your other comment.