Crawford Lineup Shuffle?

[Palodios]

I'd say that we should put the two hottest singles hitters at the top of the lineup each game followed by the 3 beasts.

 

Based on what we've seen from Francona, don't expect this. Taking Pedroia out means 5 of the top 6 guys are lefties. He put Lowrie in the 2 spot recently, which shows how resistant he is to that. Maybe it is a coincidence, but when he was moving so many guys around, no one was hitting, and I think he is under the impression that consistency is crucial to keep these guys clicking.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This.

 

Why?? It makes zero sense. He's got a .357 OBP over the past few years. I don't understand the argument that his OBP isn't high enough.

 

Yeah. In 2008, when he was hurt, it wasn't high enough. In 2001 and 2002, when he was 21 and 22 years old, sure it wasn't high enough.

 

But saying that his career .335 OBP isn't high enough to hit in the top of the order is like saying that JD Drew should be our 4 slot hitter because he's got more career Homeruns than Youkilis.

[WellBefore2004]

Why?? It makes zero sense. He's got a .357 OBP over the past few years. I don't understand the argument that his OBP isn't high enough.

 

Yeah. In 2008, when he was hurt, it wasn't high enough. In 2001 and 2002, when he was 21 and 22 years old, sure it wasn't high enough.

 

But saying that his career .335 OBP isn't high enough to hit in the top of the order is like saying that JD Drew should be our 4 slot hitter because he's got more career Homeruns than Youkilis.

 

My thing is, why move him now with the way he's producing? What's the problem with keeping him in that 7-8 hole and using him like a 2nd lead-off man or table setter? I just don't get why he has to move, again.

 

BTW: If he were to get thrown into the 2 or 3 hole and go back into his April swoon, this board would be going crazy and cursing Tito up and down.

[SoxFanForsyth]

My thing is, why move him now with the way he's producing? What's the problem with keeping him in that 7-8 hole and using him like a 2nd lead-off man or table setter? I just don't get why he has to move, again.

 

BTW: If he were to get thrown into the 2 or 3 hole and go back into his April swoon, this board would be going crazy and cursing Tito up and down.

 

Because you're limiting his damage. We signed him to be a top of the order run producer. That's the player he's always been. Just because he slumped in April doesn't mean he's all of a sudden a 7 or 8 hole hitter. He was put in the 8 slot so that he could find his swing and get going, and while he was struggling it didn't hurt the team as bad. Now he's found his swing again and he's returned to the player we paid $142mm for, so why wouldn't we put him in the top of the order where he can do the most damage?

 

As far as him going back into his April swoon, that's highly unlikely. He's a career .300 hitter. He's not just going to fall off the face of the earth. He's getting comfortable. He hit .333/.354/.510 in May so far. That's over the course of 24 games. He's back to his normal self, and if he slumps again, he'll find his way out, just like every other player. He's not a .210 hitter that is just getting lucky.

[Dojji]

He's just fine producing runs in a power hitter role guys. In case you haven't noticed he's a creditable slugger, especially if you don't focus too much on homers (Crawford is a perennial contender for the league lead in Triplies and has rarely slugged under .450)

 

he is actually a very good fit for the lower middle of the order. Since we have a top notch leadoff speed guy and Laser Show in the 2 hole where he's virtually the ideal #2 hitter, I don't consider it sensible to force Crawford in to a situation where he's a LESS good fit than what we ALREADY have there, when there's other roles in the lineup where he does just fine. Especially when him hitting 2 means putting 2 lefties at the top of the lineup and forces everyone else one space down. Sounds like a losing proposition to me.

 

This is not a lineup that goes 1-6 then black hole, black hole, black hole. Especially with Lowrie producing and Salty coming around. Good hitters in the 6-7-8 holes IS NOT A PROBLEM.

 

Heck anyone remember Bill Mueller in 2003? He got the batting title out of the 8 hole. We got away with that because the rest of the lineup was freaking amazing. We're close to a very similar situation here.

[ORS]

I'll echo a700's post about not changing the 3/4/5. That being the case, two of Ellsbury/Pedroia/Crawford can fill the 1/2 spots. Whoever it is doesn't matter to me. I think it's prudent to stick with Ellsbury/Pedroia because despite Crawford's recent surge, he's not hitting better than JE since he took the leadoff spot, and Pedroia is RH, an excellent #2 hitter with speed on in front of him, and a good bet to put up better offensive numbers by season's end. I don't disagree that when he's going good that Crawford is a top of the order hitter, but so are the other two, and his talents don't warrant moving Gonzalez/Youk/Ortiz down in the order. It's is simple as that.

 

On another note, how nice is it to have this discussion? With Lowrie hitting the way he has, the catchers getting the memo and pulling out of their funk, and Drew still being a grinder who gets on base, this lineup is loaded. So what if Crawford hits 6th, there are worse problems to have. Enjoy it.

[ORS]

Because you're limiting his damage. We signed him to be a top of the order run producer. That's the player he's always been. Just because he slumped in April doesn't mean he's all of a sudden a 7 or 8 hole hitter. He was put in the 8 slot so that he could find his swing and get going, and while he was struggling it didn't hurt the team as bad. Now he's found his swing again and he's returned to the player we paid $142mm for, so why wouldn't we put him in the top of the order where he can do the most damage?

 

As far as him going back into his April swoon, that's highly unlikely. He's a career .300 hitter. He's not just going to fall off the face of the earth. He's getting comfortable. He hit .333/.354/.510 in May so far. That's over the course of 24 games. He's back to his normal self, and if he slumps again, he'll find his way out, just like every other player. He's not a .210 hitter that is just getting lucky.

How has his "damage" been limited the last few games?

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's just fine in a power hitter role guys. In case you haven't noticed he's a creditable slugger, especially if you don't focus too much on homers (Crawford is a perennial contender for the league lead in Triplies and has rarely slugged under .450)

 

he is actually a very good fit for the lower middle of the order. Since we have a top notch leadoff speed guy and Laser Show in the 2 hole where he's virtually the ideal #2 hitter, I don't consider it sensible to force Crawford in to a situation where he's a LESS good fit than what we ALREADY have there, when there's other roles in the lineup where he does just fine. Especially when him hitting 2 means putting 2 lefties at the top of the lineup and forces everyone else one space down. Sounds like a losing proposition to me.

 

And what about his legs? Why would you put him behind Ortiz, Youk, and Gonzo who can't go 1st to Score on a triple, who can't go 1st to 3rd on a single. Crawford gets bottled up. His triples turn into doubles. His singles turn into singles because he can't swipe 2nd. So if his power is good why wouldn't you put him in the 3 slot, where Ells and Pedey can score from 1st on a triple, they can go 1st to 3rd on a single, which allows him to be a power threat in terms of XBH AND be a SB threat once he gets on base? Like I said. You're limiting his potential. By hitting him 6th, you're saying "Use your speed when you can, but we're not going to put a line up together that exploits it". By putting him 3rd, you say "We're putting you in a slot where you've got guys who can motor to 3rd on a single, score from 1st on a triple, get out of your way on the basepaths so that you can utilize your power without sacrificing your speed"

[SoxFanForsyth]

How has his "damage" been limited the last few games?

 

Come on man. Small sample size. Don't give me that argument. It's been 2 games.

[Dojji]

And what about his legs?

 

THey're right there at the end of his hips. He's perfectly capable of using them to manufacture extra RBI's for any reasonably consistent singles hitter. In fact putting him ahead of power hitters limits the impact of said appendages because too much of the time he's jogging home from scoring position or doing the "I was driven in by a HR" trot. He's better off using his speed in a quasi-second-leadoff role where it might actually increase the chances of him scoring where other much slower hitters wouldn't -- which is not so true if he's hitting in front of the big boppas.

[ORS]

Come on man. Small sample size. Don't give me that argument. It's been 2 games.

No, seriously, how has his "damage" been limited?

 

The benefit of his speed is that he can move into scoring position on a single. However, in your hypothetical where a slow guy doesn't go 1st to 3rd on one of his singles and stops him from taking 2nd with his legs, you are ignoring something very fundamental here. There's still a guy in scoring positon - the big, slow guy he moved to 2B with his single. Where is the limited "damage"?

 

EDIT: When his triples get turned into doubles.....well....then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of a runner on 3rd. I think you are missing the forest because of all the trees.

[Dojji]

On another note, how nice is it to have this discussion? With Lowrie hitting the way he has, the catchers getting the memo and pulling out of their funk, and Drew still being a grinder who gets on base, this lineup is loaded. So what if Crawford hits 6th, there are worse problems to have. Enjoy it.

 

Amen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Crawford is NOT Bill Mueller. It didn't matter who hit in front of Mueller because MUELLER COULDN'T RUN.

 

If you bottle up Craw behind the slugs and in front of the likes of Lowrie, Drew, and Salty, he's a .300/.355/.450 hitter, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 80 Runs, 25 SB guy.

 

With Crawford's legs available for use (i.e. the 3 hole), he's a .300/.355/.500 hitter, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 110 Runs, 35-40 SB guy.

 

There's a massive difference of potential when you put him in the top of the order. Hitting him 6th takes away HIS BIGGEST ASSET

[SoxFanForsyth]

THey're right there at the end of his hips. He's perfectly capable of using them to manufacture extra RBI's for any reasonably consistent singles hitter. In fact putting him ahead of power hitters limits the impact of said appendages because too much of the time he's jogging home from scoring position or doing the "I was driven in by a HR" trot. He's better off using his speed in a quasi-second-leadoff role where it might actually increase the chances of him scoring where other much slower hitters wouldn't -- which is not so true if he's hitting in front of the big boppas.

 

This is one of the worst arguments I've ever heard.

 

You put Crawford behind Youk, Gonzo, Ortiz, and you waste his legs. Plain and simple. You can't argue that. They bottle him up and he becomes a less valuable player.

[ORS]

Crawford is NOT Bill Mueller. It didn't matter who hit in front of Mueller because MUELLER COULDN'T RUN.

 

If you bottle up Craw behind the slugs and in front of the likes of Lowrie, Drew, and Salty, he's a .300/.355/.450 hitter, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 80 Runs, 25 SB guy.

 

With Crawford's legs available for use (i.e. the 3 hole), he's a .300/.355/.500 hitter, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 110 Runs, 35-40 SB guy.

 

There's a massive difference of potential when you put him in the top of the order. Hitting him 6th takes away HIS BIGGEST ASSET

Oh noes, all caps, he's so serious. Why so serious?

 

You are making something out of nothing.

[Dojji]

Crawford is NOT Bill Mueller. It didn't matter who hit in front of Mueller because MUELLER COULDN'T RUN.

 

Which only makes Crwaford more valuable in NONtraditional scoring opportunities. Such as those most commonly found at the bottom of the freaking batting order.

 

If we didn't have Ellsbury, I dunno, maybe you could make a case, but Ellsbury is more than getting the job done at leadoff, and you need a RHH (Pedroia) behind him. You aren't going to move Crawford up without taking one of those two out of roles they're among the best players in the league at.

 

I don't care if Crawford is good there too, that isn't even the question, the question is who is the best fit for each role on the Sox, and that's Ellsbury in leadoff and Pedroia as the 2 hole hitter and Crwaford down in the lineup ready to move up if one of those two gets hurt..

[SoxFanForsyth]

No, seriously, how has his "damage" been limited?

 

The benefit of his speed is that he can move into scoring position on a single. However, in your hypothetical where a slow guy doesn't go 1st to 3rd on one of his singles and stops him from taking 2nd with his legs, you are ignoring something very fundamental here. There's still a guy in scoring positon - the big, slow guy he moved to 2B with his single. Where is the limited "damage"?

 

EDIT: When his triples get turned into doubles.....well....then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of a runner on 3rd. I think you are missing the forest because of all the trees.

 

The limited damage is that rather than having the big slow guy at 2nd and the speedy guy at 1st, you could have Ells or Pedey at 3rd with Crawford at 1st, with 2nd base ripe for the taking. That translates to 2nd and 3rd rather than 1st and 2nd.

 

Not to mention on singles to RF, where Craw could go 1st to 3rd, slower guys will get held up at 3rd rather than scoring.

 

And when his triples get turned into doubles, well then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of 1 run and a man on 3rd. What about when there's 1 out? And a sac fly drives in that big guy from 3rd, and Crawford is stranded on 2nd?

 

This is going to happen way more often than you realize.

[Palodios]

You put Crawford behind Youk' date=' Gonzo, Ortiz, and you waste his legs. Plain and simple. You can't argue that. They bottle him up and he becomes a less valuable player.[/quote']

 

Well, this is probably why Francona has been hitting him 8th instead of 6th. Lowrie and Drew are in front of him, not Youk, Gonzo, Ortiz. They're not Ellsbury/Pedroia, but they're still considerably faster than those other three guys.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Which only makes Crwaford more valuable in NONtraditional scoring opportunities. Such as those most commonly found at the bottom of the freaking batting order.

 

If we didn't have Ellsbury, I dunno, maybe you could make a case, but Ellsbury is more than getting the job done at leadoff, and you need a RHH (Pedroia) behind him. You aren't going to fix that without taking one of those two out of roles they're among the best players in the league at.

 

I don't care if Crawford is good there too, that isn't even the question, the question is who is the best fit for each role on the Sox, and that's Ellsbury in leadoff and Pedroia as the 2 hole hitter.

 

Yes. And Craw 3 followed by Gonzo - Youk - Ortiz.

 

The NONtraditional scoring opportunities aren't going to even be opportunities for Crawford because he's not going to be able to utilize his speed because he's got a slow ass guy running in front of him that bottles him up. I don't see how you don't understand this.

[Dojji]

The limited damage is that rather than having the big slow guy at 2nd and the speedy guy at 1st, you could have Ells or Pedey at 3rd with Crawford at 1st, with 2nd base ripe for the taking. That translates to 2nd and 3rd rather than 1st and 2nd.

 

Not to mention on singles to RF, where Craw could go 1st to 3rd, slower guys will get held up at 3rd rather than scoring.

 

And when his triples get turned into doubles, well then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of 1 run and a man on 3rd. What about when there's 1 out? And a sac fly drives in that big guy from 3rd, and Crawford is stranded on 2nd?

 

This is going to happen way more often than you realize.

 

 

Oh lord lol!

 

Hey ORS! You realize what this is? This is the Dusty Baker "Clogging the basepaths" argument!:lol::lol:

[ORS]

The limited damage is that rather than having the big slow guy at 2nd and the speedy guy at 1st, you could have Ells or Pedey at 3rd with Crawford at 1st, with 2nd base ripe for the taking. That translates to 2nd and 3rd rather than 1st and 2nd.

 

Not to mention on singles to RF, where Craw could go 1st to 3rd, slower guys will get held up at 3rd rather than scoring.

 

And when his triples get turned into doubles, well then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of 1 run and a man on 3rd. What about when there's 1 out? And a sac fly drives in that big guy from 3rd, and Crawford is stranded on 2nd?

 

This is going to happen way more often than you realize.

This is not going to happen enough to warrant moving Gonzalez/Youk/Ortiz down in the order over 100 games. It just isn't.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well' date=' this is probably why Francona has been hitting him 8th instead of 6th. Lowrie and Drew are in front of him, not Youk, Gonzo, Ortiz. They're not Ellsbury/Pedroia, but they're still considerably faster than those other three guys.[/quote']

 

Agree. But he's entirely too good of a hitter to be hitting 8th all year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is not going to happen enough to warrant moving Gonzalez/Youk/Ortiz down in the order over 100 games. It just isn't.

 

You kill his speed in the 6 hole. Whether you guys want to believe it or not, that's up to you. But hitting him 6th kills his speed, and that's his biggest asset. You put him 3, he's got 2 quick guys ahead of him and his speed and gap power gets exploited. Ells and Pedey can both score from 1st on gap shots, none of the big boppers can.

 

It's just dumb to waste his speed by hitting him 6th. He loses a ton of value there.

[ORS]

Agree. But he's entirely too good of a hitter to be hitting 8th all year.

So hit him 6th, but don't, under any silly set of circumstances, move your best hitters down in the lineup over 100 games just so this guy can steal a handful of more bases and leg out a couple more triples.

[Palodios]

Agree. But he's entirely too good of a hitter to be hitting 8th all year.

 

Unfortunately, that might be where we see him all year, barring injuries. This lineup is just too friggen good. Ellsbury is an elite leadoff hitter, and shouldn't be messed with. Pedroia is an elite #2 hitter, A-gon... Youk.... Ortiz... Lowrie is showing that he's capable of demolishing lefties, which--in this lineup-- makes him crucial, even though he's been pretty crummy against righties. Drew is going to have a monster OBP, even if he'll have nothing else. That's eight guys who do something really really well, and Crawford is a small round peg in a big square hole. He fits because of who he is, but not necessarily the way we want him to.

[ORS]

You kill his speed in the 6 hole. Whether you guys want to believe it or not, that's up to you. But hitting him 6th kills his speed, and that's his biggest asset. You put him 3, he's got 2 quick guys ahead of him and his speed and gap power gets exploited. Ells and Pedey can both score from 1st on gap shots, none of the big boppers can.

 

It's just dumb to waste his speed by hitting him 6th. He loses a ton of value there.

It's dumber to move 3 substantially better hitters down in the order to accomodate his speed. This isn't about whether or not Crawford is a top of the order bat, he is. This is about avoiding impact to a bigger asset, the 3/4/5 hitters, in order to maximize the value out of one guy. How do you not see this?

[SoxFanForsyth]

So hit him 6th' date=' but don't, under any silly set of circumstances, move your best hitters down in the lineup over 100 games just so this guy can steal a handful of more bases and leg out a couple more triples.[/quote']

 

Crawford's gap power is worthless in the 6 slot, nobody can score from 1st in front of him. His SB are worthless in the 6 spot. His gap power drives in runs in the 3 slot. He has all the opportunities in the world to steal 2nd in the 3 spot.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's dumber to move 3 substantially better hitters down in the order to accomodate his speed. This isn't about whether or not Crawford is a top of the order bat' date=' he is. This is about avoiding impact to a bigger asset, the 3/4/5 hitters, in order to maximize the value out of one guy. How do you not see this?[/quote']

 

I see it. I do, trust me. But I think that, by hitting Craw 3rd, you're making this line up better. You're putting all of our run scorers ahead of our run producers.

 

Crawford is a perfect hybrid of a run producer and a run scorer. He can manufacture runs. He can drive in runs (90 RBI last year). He can hit for gap power, and put himself into scoring position.

 

With this line up, he's the perfect 3 hole hitter. The things is - Ellsbury and Pedroia don't need homeruns to score. They're fast enough to score on gappers from 1st. It's the perfect storm for Crawford to hit 3.

[ORS]

Crawford's gap power is worthless in the 6 slot' date=' nobody can score from 1st in front of him. His SB are worthless in the 6 spot. His gap power drives in runs in the 3 slot. He has all the opportunities in the world to steal 2nd in the 3 spot.[/quote']

This is unmitigated ********. Worthless? Nonsense. They won't always get on in front of him, "clogging up the bases". And, since they are middle of the order hitters, many of the times they get on will be via extra bases, which will only impact his walks.....which there aren't very many of.

 

The situation you present is real, it will happen, but not in any way with the type of frequency you are suggesting. The lack of frequency is why this is a making a mountain out of a molehill.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is unmitigated ********. Worthless? Nonsense. They won't always get on in front of him, "clogging up the bases". And, since they are middle of the order hitters, many of the times they get on will be via extra bases, which will only impact his walks.....which there aren't very many of.

 

The situation you present is real, it will happen, but not in any way with the type of frequency you are suggesting. The lack of frequency is why this is a making a mountain out of a molehill.

 

I disagree. With Youk being the "GG of Walks", and Ortiz hitting 43% of his balls in the air, I think it's going to happen a whole lot more than you think.

 

Regardless, this is exhausting. I'm at a point where I'll just agree to disagree. I think he should be our 3 hole hitter where we can exploit his legs and there is very little likelihood of him getting bottled up on the bases. You want him 6th and not move the 3-4-5 combo we have.

 

It's a win-win situation.