4/21 @ Anaheim

[MJantomaso]

He's made two starts. None of those stats are particlarly meaningful at this point.

 

Bottom line, we don't know what to expect.

 

I expect rape.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's made two starts. None of those stats are particlarly meaningful at this point.

 

Bottom line, we don't know what to expect.

 

All I'm saying is that even his sub-par 3.75 ERA is way over his head. He walks a good amount and strikes out very few.

[VA Sox Fan]

Judge Smails would approve his membership application at Bushwood CC.

 

[ORS]

All I'm saying is that even his sub-par 3.75 ERA is way over his head. He walks a good amount and strikes out very few.

And I'm saying his ERA isn't even worthy of noting, and particularly of attempting to dismantle, at this point. After two games, it's a meaningless number.

[Palodios]

Just a quick look at Chatwood--

 

This is a guy with little to no experience. He's pitched 6 innings in AAA, 60 innings in AA, and everything else is A and below. From what I've read, he has three pitches-- mid 90s fastball, a plus curve, and a changeup. That being said he's a rookie in his early 20s who has yet to face truly elite hitters-- tonight will be a game he will not forget quickly.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And I'm saying his ERA isn't even worthy of noting' date=' and particularly of attempting to dismantle, at this point. After two games, it's a meaningless number.[/quote']

 

Fair enough. I wasn't trying to argue anything relating to his ERA. I was just simply showing he's really lucky that it isn't higher than it is right now, based on his LOB% and BABIP. It wasn't intended to be a scouting report or prediction.

 

I do believe that he will get shelled tonight because of a few things. First off, in his 2 games he's started, he's only thrown 46.7% first pitch strikes. We have a very patient team and we'll get in a lot of hitters counts and hammer his mistake pitches. His fastball is only averaging 92 MPH, not overpowering by any means. And second - his scouting report claims that he has no "put away pitch" and that he has control issues. Both of those claims are consistent with his results, a 4.50 K/9 and a 4.50 BB/9. Again - the patience of our hitters will really bother this guy.

[ORS]

Fair enough. I wasn't trying to argue anything relating to his ERA. I was just simply showing he's really lucky that it isn't higher than it is right now, based on his LOB% and BABIP. It wasn't intended to be a scouting report or prediction.

 

I do believe that he will get shelled tonight because of a few things. First off, in his 2 games he's started, he's only thrown 46.7% first pitch strikes. We have a very patient team and we'll get in a lot of hitters counts and hammer his mistake pitches. His fastball is only averaging 92 MPH, not overpowering by any means. And second - his scouting report claims that he has no "put away pitch" and that he has control issues. Both of those claims are consistent with his results, a 4.50 K/9 and a 4.50 BB/9. Again - the patience of our hitters will really bother this guy.

Maybe, maybe not. Baseball is a funny game. Pitchers with poor command sometimes get by with "effective wildness". Cookies down the middle get missed. Anything can happen in a small sample, and it doesn't get much smaller than one game.

 

If we faced him all 162 games, a lot of what you are suggesting would likely come true. But one night of baseball? Anybody's guess.

[Wil Corderos Wife]

I hope you guys are right, but the Sox have had a way of making rookies look like Cy Young in the past.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Maybe, maybe not. Baseball is a funny game. Pitchers with poor command sometimes get by with "effective wildness". Cookies down the middle get missed. Anything can happen in a small sample, and it doesn't get much smaller than one game.

 

If we faced him all 162 games, a lot of what you are suggesting would likely come true. But one night of baseball? Anybody's guess.

 

True, but these are the types of pitchers that we feast on. Behind in the count, no put away pitch, even at 0-2 or 1-2, we're not in horrible shape. Young guy who will miss a good bit with poor location.

 

Like you said. No guarantees, but I like our chances.

[yankees228]

Who would you rather have?

 

Past 3 year's stats:

 

Player A:

Games Played: 386 (missed 1/2 of a season due to injury)

OPS+: 118

UZR: 15.9

WAR 14.9

 

Player B:

Games Played: 480

OPS+: 117

UZR: -14.6 (that is negative 14.6, to be clear)

WAR: 11.0

 

For the record, WAR is a stat that is generated using UZR as a reference. UZR increases with each game played at a certain level of defense. Player A missed 1/2 of a season, thus both UZR and WAR were both negatively affected.

 

So, do you want Player A or Player B?

 

This all depends what sample size you choose. I'd argue that 2008 is a thing of the past for Cano. He had issues at that point in his career that by all accounts he has moved past. Here's what we get if we use the previous two years.

 

Robinson Cano

OPS+: 131

UZR: -3.4

WAR: 10.8

 

Dustin Pedroia

OPS+: 115

UZR: 13.2

WAR: 8.3

 

Again, the WAR and UZR numbers are influenced by games played (which hurts Pedroia, in this instance). But this sample size, especially when it comes to offense, draws a different picture.

[italstallianion]

Can't we all just agree that they are both really f***** good?

[yankees228]

Can't we all just agree that they are both really f***** good?

 

Absolutely, and a legitimate case can be made that Pedroia is better. Although that's largely based UZR, and I really think Cano is a better defensive player than the numbers show. Regardless, my only point was that using a three year sampling, considering Cano's 2008, makes it look like there's no contest, which isn't fair (or accurate) in my opinion.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Pedroia is better. Just cause I say so.

 

Thank god no school tomorrow. Finally able to watch a west coast game in peace.

[RedSoxFrank]

Bartending class ends at 9:30 for me tonight, I'll be able to watch the Sox kick some ass!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Absolutely' date=' and a legitimate case can be made that Pedroia is better. Although that's largely based UZR, and I really think Cano is a better defensive player than the numbers show. Regardless, my only point was that using a three year sampling, considering Cano's 2008, makes it look like there's no contest, which isn't fair (or accurate) in my opinion.[/quote']

 

I included 2008 because Pedroia was injured for 1/2 of the season in 2010. So his UZR was low and thus his WAR was low. He played 75 games to the tune of a 3.3 WAR. If he would have remained consistent, his UZR would have been right at 9.6, consistent with his career norms, and his WAR would have been right around 6.0 - 6.5 based on a 150 game season. His 2008 WAR was 6.6, so I'll say he would have been closer to a 6.0 WAR player. Regardless, that would put him at a WAR of 11.3 vs Cano's 10.8. Either way, very comparable. Offensive numbers - Cano has an edge in power, but Pedroia hits more doubles (Fenway), and has much better plate discipline. Defensively, Pedroia is the hands down winner.

 

Like RSFFL said, they're both really freaking good, but I like Pedey if I have to choose one or the other. Biased? Sure. But he's been consistently good every year since 2007.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pedroia is better. Just cause I say so.

 

Thank god no school tomorrow. Finally able to watch a west coast game in peace.

 

Literally. It's Good Friday.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Oh yeah I know that but that's not why I don't have school.

[RedSoxFrank]

I've been on spring break this whole week.

[yankees228]

I included 2008 because Pedroia was injured for 1/2 of the season in 2010. So his UZR was low and thus his WAR was low. He played 75 games to the tune of a 3.3 WAR. If he would have remained consistent, his UZR would have been right at 9.6, consistent with his career norms, and his WAR would have been right around 6.0 - 6.5 based on a 150 game season. His 2008 WAR was 6.6, so I'll say he would have been closer to a 6.0 WAR player. Regardless, that would put him at a WAR of 11.3 vs Cano's 10.8. Either way, very comparable. Offensive numbers - Cano has an edge in power, but Pedroia hits more doubles (Fenway), and has much better plate discipline. Defensively, Pedroia is the hands down winner.

 

Like RSFFL said, they're both really freaking good, but I like Pedey if I have to choose one or the other. Biased? Sure. But he's been consistently good every year since 2007.

 

Right, I only made the point to show that Cano is a better offensive player than his 2008-2010 offensive sampling shows.

 

Anyway, here's my take on Cano's defense. I like UZR, and I think it's, generally, a reliable metric. But I just don't find its assessment in 2010 of Cano to be accurate. Here's how it breaks down:

 

Double Play Runs Above Average: 1.3

Range Runs Above Average: -7.5

Error Runs Above Average: 5.6

 

I don't want to act like my observational evaluation trumps UZR's objective evaluation. But having watched Cano play in about 150 games last year, I just can't agree with the idea that his range was that bad, or even bad at all.

[ORS]

The run value of a single is about .25, so that's 30 plays below average, where he didn't make a range out, or about one a week over the full season. That's about the same as the difference between a .260 and .300 hitter, and is generally considered one of those things that you just don't notice through pure observation. Is it possible that you just missed that one play per week that he didn't make, especially when, since you watch so many of the Yankee's game, you don't see a whole lot of the other players out there establishing the average?

[SoxFanForsyth]

RED SOX (6-11)

Drew RF

Pedroia 2B

Gonzalez 1B

Youkilis 3B

Ortiz DH

Lowrie SS

Crawford LF

Varitek C

Ellsbury CF

[La Munson]

RED SOX (6-11)

Drew RF

Pedroia 2B

Gonzalez 1B

Youkilis 3B

Ortiz DH

Lowrie SS

Crawford LF

Varitek C

Ellsbury CF

 

That's interesting that Varitek's catching two days in a row, does anyone think Beckett might be the one wanting this?

 

Terry has basically said he is avoiding having personal catchers at all costs.

[italstallianion]

You can't argue with results though. If having Varitek in there is what it takes to win, then we gotta do it.

[Station 13]

So Masterson is 4-0 1.71 :shock:

[VA Sox Fan]

That's interesting that Varitek's catching two days in a row, does anyone think Beckett might be the one wanting this?

 

Terry has basically said he is avoiding having personal catchers at all costs.

 

Beckett has always wanted Tek as his catcher so yes. I like him catching, just wish he could hit and throw runners out at second....

[La Munson]

Beckett has always wanted Tek as his catcher so yes. I like him catching' date=' just wish he could hit and throw runners out at second....[/quote']

 

From what we've seen, a Varitek throw that doesn't get a runner isn't as bad as a Salty throw that doesn't get a runner and goes into center field

 

And the offense isn't a huge difference, It's not like Salty's helped us much offensively anyway.

[VA Sox Fan]

ANGELS (12-6)

Izturis 3B

Kendrick 2B

Abreu DH

Hunter RF

Wells LF

Conger C

Trumbo 1B

Aybar SS

Bourjos CF

 

Pitching: RHP Tyler Chatwood (1-1, 3.75)

[jopete19]

So Masterson is 4-0 1.71 :shock:

 

I never wanted to get rid of him.

[Wasatch]

Go Redsox!

[Palodios]

So Masterson is 4-0 1.71 :shock:

 

And yet, still has a WHIP of 1.54 against LHP this year. He's a unbalanced pitcher, who thrives against RHP, but gets lit up against LHP. I always liked him, but considered him a project, and until he proves he can get lefties out, I don't see him continuing this winning streak.