2011 Lineups Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hopefully that worked. That's Gonzo's 2010 hit chart @ Petco vs LHP placed over Fenway (or it should be anyway). It's showing his pop outs, line outs, and fly outs. It doesn't show ground outs or any actual hits.

 

In that image, I can see 6 balls that were hit vs LHP that were outs that would easily be a hit at Fenway, 4 of which would be HR (more than likely).

 

If those 6 hits were added to his 2010 totals, his BA vs LHP would go from .337 to .367.

 

Again, I realize that his BABIP was high as was shown earlier, but if you take into consideration that he is playing in a new park that is much more hitter friendly, it's not at all crazy to think he can still hit .300 vs LHP in 2011.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Don't know why it's so small. (that's what he said). Maybe someone tell me how to make it larger? (that too)

[Dipre]

Two words: BABIP normalization.

 

Also, i can't help but feel you've posted here before.......but it's good to have someone who can create a statistically sound argument, so stick around!

[example1]

Allow me to explain the issue of hitting Crawford third or fifth instead of first or second in a more detailed manner.

 

This is taken from an article in The Hardball times which details the nuances of lineup construction:

 

 

 

 

 

This directly contradicts my idea that an OBP hitter should bat third, but it does make sense.

 

The article does not mention the importance of speed (Crawford's specialty) in the manufacturing of runs, which is why the more AB's the guys who feature the most speed in the lineup directly impact the amount of runs scored as well, it's one of the main principles of the "lead-off hitter".

 

All of these arguments seem like the justification for why most computer simulations would have players like JD Drew and David Ortiz batting near the top of the order. I can't say that I fault their logic, but even a statistically inclined team like the Red Sox don't do it so there should be a reason.

 

I'm not sure if anyone has quantified the impact of speedy baserunners on the concentration of pitchers (and the impact of poorly-concentrated pitchers vs. elite power hitters), but if they have I would be interested.

 

Dipre, any idea why the Sox wouldn't be using a lineup that reflects what the stats say would be most productive? To some degree they have stuck with the traditional model to this point.

 

My first guess at an argument/answer is that it is one thing to have JD Drew and his numbers (from hitting 6th or 7th) penciled into the leadoff spot. It is another thing to actually have JD Drew leading off. For whatever reason, a lot of players who might be good leadoff hitters simply don't like hitting leadoff.

 

 

 

Even with the strong argument you make about the #3 spot, I think Pedroia is the best among Crawford, Ellsbury and Pedroia, to hit in the #3 spot.

 

Also, don't sour too quickly on the Crawford deal. There were plenty of reasons to prefer Werth over Crawford, but I think Crawford could show some really special things during his tenure with the Sox.

 

Also, once Drew and Ortiz are gone I think he will make a lot more sense for this team.

 

Finally, I actually think that the Sox moves this year portend possibly EXTENDING Ortiz on a reasonable multi-year deal if he is productive this season. I never thought I would be saying that, but for the right price and his proven ability to manage AL East pitching, the Boston media, and playoff atmosphere, the 2012 FA class may not offer much by way of comparison or better hitters. He may have wanted a sweet FA deal this year, but with another good year he could warrant a two or three year deal for a reasonable cost.

 

Just some random thoughts.

[Dipre]

I never disagreed with the idea of Pedroia hitting third, i merely mentioned that what i posted makes sense even though my preference would be having an OBP hitter in the three spot, with Ellsbury and Crawford in the one and two spots.

 

The point of me making that post was to show how having the two hitters with the best speed and base running ability in the first spot of the lineup would seem like the most logical and productive way to build a lineup, since, as stated in the article, those are the two spots in the lineup whose hits translate into more runs aside from the cleanup spot.

 

It was a way to say no to Crawford hitting third or fifth, but yes to leading off or second, where his best weapon (speed) would be best employed.

 

Notice when i say this:

 

The article does not mention the importance of speed (Crawford's specialty) in the manufacturing of runs, which is why the more AB's the guys who feature the most speed in the lineup directly impact the amount of runs scored as well, it's one of the main principles of the "lead-off hitter".

 

That's exactly what i meant.

[example1]

I never disagreed with the idea of Pedroia hitting third, i merely mentioned that what i posted makes sense even though my preference would be having an OBP hitter in the three spot, with Ellsbury and Crawford in the one and two spots.

 

The point of me making that post was to show how having the two hitters with the best speed and base running ability in the first spot of the lineup would seem like the most logical and productive way to build a lineup, since, as stated in the article, those are the two spots in the lineup whose hits translate into more runs aside from the cleanup spot.

 

It was a way to say no to Crawford hitting third or fifth, but yes to leading off or second, where his best weapon (speed) would be best employed.

 

Notice when i say this:

 

 

 

That's exactly what i meant.

 

 

If you read my post as disagreeing with you or arguing with you then you mis-read my intention. Sorry if I was unclear, or unintentional argumentitive.

 

I was actually open to a discussion about why the Sox DON'T maxamize their offensive weapons the way that statistics and multi-season simulations would predict they should. In theory, the best hitters should hit as often as possible so there's no reason not to have Gonzalez leading off. Yet the Sox don't have hitters like him lead off, ever, and I'm curious about why...

[Dipre]

If you read my post as disagreeing with you or arguing with you then you mis-read my intention. Sorry if I was unclear, or unintentional argumentitive.

 

I was actually open to a discussion about why the Sox DON'T maxamize their offensive weapons the way that statistics and multi-season simulations would predict they should. In theory, the best hitters should hit as often as possible so there's no reason not to have Gonzalez leading off. Yet the Sox don't have hitters like him lead off, ever, and I'm curious about why...

 

Because statistics don't account for the speed element in the context of manufacturing runs.

 

They see every hitter in a neutral context as it pertains to OBP and SLG%, when over a full season, a speedy guy getting on base at a significantly lower clip than a towering slugger would probably score more runs via stealing bases, or scoring from second on a single or first on a double.

[Plumpamania]

Three of the best power hitters in the game.

 

Lowrie

Drew

Salty

 

 

I lost respect.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've actually never posted on this thread, just usually on redsox.com, maybe nesn a few times, but I actually just found this site a few days ago and I've been following the Sox for about 12 years now.

 

I can't argue his BABIP being so high in 2010, and the more I look at his stats, the more and more volatile they become regarding BABIP (.371 in 2010, .265 in 2009, .235 in 2008, .285 in 2007, .379 in 2006).

 

So, what I did was look at his spray chart vs LHP at Petco and put it at Fenway for the 3 available years (2008-2010), and I've attached them to the bottom. Again, I only filtered it by Pop Out, Fly Out, and Line Out, as the spray charts indicate where the defender caught the ball, so it's the best indication of where the ball landed.

 

Having reviewed these, I noted that, judging solely by home games vs LHP converting from Petco to Fenway, he will be worth around 5-6 extra hits vs LHP (most of these will be HR over the Monster or doubles off the wall).

 

So, I took the extra 5-6 hits and added them to his 2007 year, as this was his most normal BABIP year. Just for the record - I believe a normal BABIP should be between .280 - .320.

 

Adding 6 hits to his 2007 campaign vs LHP would put his average at .293. Adding 5 would be .289.

 

So, assuming he has improved slightly over the past 3 years vs LHP, and assuming his BABIP will be at a normal level, and taking into consideration the new park, I think he'll sit right at .300 vs LHP.

 

By the way - I attached another piece that I read on Fangraphs basically transitioning his stats from 2008, 2009, and 2010 from Petco to Fenway by taking his actual stats, translating them to a Normal NL Environment, and then translating them as if he played at Fenway. Very interesting, I thought.

 

By the way - if these attachments are too small, let me know how I can make them bigger. They're much bigger when I save them.

[example1]

I lost respect.

 

Should I lose respect because you didn't figure out that was referring to Gonzalez, youkilis and ortiz? I could see how that would be confusing except I used that format consistently throughout the post. C'mon plump, you are better than that.

[Plumpamania]

I am but not when quickly browsing at work between running reports. That did scare the mo'f***in hell outta me.

[example1]

I am but not when quickly browsing at work between running reports. That did scare the mo'f***in hell outta me.

 

 

I do the quick browsing at work too, but usually figure that I can't give it the reading comprehension needed to try to call out other posters for their ineptitude.

 

If I start saying that Lowrie, Drew and Saltalamacchia are elite power hitters just take me out back and put me down please.

[bsox0407]

Since we are talking about lineups that the Sox could have next season. What happens to Papi when Interleague in NL parks comes around. Are you really going to sit the guy who has played an AVG of 160 games a season. I feel he is another Dustin Pedroia Type. Hates not being on the field at all times.

 

I would have to say that during Interleague in NL parks that Papi goes to the Bench. There is no way i would want to sit Gonzo against pitchers he has a lot of experience with. The one thing for Papi is sitting Gonzo against pitchers he does not hit well against.

 

Not to mention that He is a little speed demon stealing one base in 5 years. Come on even Papi is more of a Speed Threat.

[Palodios]

Ortiz doesn't want to sit against lefties either, but if Francona isn't a complete idiot, Ortiz should be sitting. I'm tired of his bitching, for such an inconsistent player over the last three years, he needs to suck it up.

[bsox0407]

Ortiz doesn't want to sit against lefties either' date=' but if Francona isn't a complete idiot, Ortiz should be sitting. I'm tired of his bitching, for such an inconsistent player over the last three years, he needs to suck it up.[/quote']

 

If you are referring to my thread i am not talking about L/R.

[Palodios]

Yeah, I know. What I'm saying is Papi needs to sit when he's told to sit, and like it.

[bsox0407]

Yeah' date=' I know. What I'm saying is Papi needs to sit when he's told to sit, and like it.[/quote']

 

Yeah that i agree with 100%. He is no longer the big gun on this team. He is now the back up power hitter. Who can't play defense to save his life.

[Dojji]

You guys are getting a little carried away. Papi's still a fine power hitter, what he isn't is a guy who carries the team himself. He's a contributing player now, but still a rather solid one.

[Dipre]

But he can't hit lefties, and should sit against them, whether he's against the AL or NL. This is fact.

[a700hitter]

Yeah that i agree with 100%. He is no longer the big gun on this team. He is now the back up power hitter. Who can't play defense to save his life.

He will sit against some of the tougher lefties. Also, while not a gold glove fielder, he really isn't bad with the glove.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox roster is filled out for the most part. Is it too early to do offense predictions for the Red Sox next season? Obviously it needs it's own thread, but I didn't want to jump the gun with it.

[BSN07]

He will sit against some of the tougher lefties. Also' date=' while not a gold glove fielder, he really isn't bad with the glove.[/quote']

 

When he can get the glove on it, yes he's ok. But it basically has to get hit right at him. Ortiz would be a statue at 1B. In a 3 game series, he will be lucky to see 1 at 1B. He will be PH in inter league play IMO.

[a700hitter]

When he can get the glove on it' date=' yes he's ok. But it basically has to get hit right at him. Ortiz would be a statue at 1B. In a 3 game series, he will be lucky to see 1 at 1B. He will be PH in inter league play IMO.[/quote']For a big guy, his range is not too bad, and he has a decent arm too.

[SoxSport]

Papi needs to be platooned at this point. And he needs to bat 6th. He can't hit LHP anymore. And you hope he hits RHP next year. He will be well paid for all those great seasons and big hits he's had in Boston.

[CoachC.]

From Gordon Edes series on Adrian Gonzalez on ESPN Boston (Part 3):

 

Gonzalez has yet to have a conversation with Francona about where he will hit in the order. But even without hearing from his new boss, Gonzalez said he figures he'll be in the 4-hole. He expects the two burners, Jacoby Ellsbury and Crawford, to hit 1-2, followed by Dustin Pedroia, who may not see another breaking pitch for the rest of his life.

 

Why not Gonzalez in the 3-spot, where he has taken the majority of his at-bats the last five seasons with the San Diego Padres and the place where a high-average, big-power hitter often finds himself?

 

"I don't have a preference,'' he said, "but when I'm on base, I do clog up the bases. I'm thinking I'll probably hit 4. Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, me, Youkilis.''

 

Also:

 

If he can play in 10 spring games, he said, he should be ready for the April 1 regular-season opener in Texas.

[Dipre]

Ellsbury

Crawford

Pedroia

Gonzales

Youkilis

Ortiz

Lowrie

Drew

Salty

 

 

But i'm an idiot for thinking Crawford's abilities would be maximized at the two-spot, right?

[Keeper]

I had Crawford batting leadoff and 2nd in my lineups. Those spots make the most sense to me.

[Dojji]

That would be an incredibly deadly speed attack if Crawford and Ellsbury are healthy. Righthanded pitchers beware.

[SoxSport]

After listening to Tito, sounds like Crawford will bat 3rd: Ellsbury 1, Pedroia 2, Crawford 3, AdGon 4, Youks 5, Ortiz 6. Injuries permitting.

 

The bigger question is Kalish. Epstein says he needs another year in AAA. That's another way of saying there is no room in the OF for him until Drew's contract expires. And they need some rhd bats--Cameron and McDonald, maybe, as backups. Bill James projects Kalish next year at 20Hrs, 82 rbis, 43 SBs, .271 ba--in Boston. That was before Crawford was signed. Kalish doesn't need another year in AAA. They just have no room for him.

[Spudboy]

After listening to Tito, sounds like Crawford will bat 3rd: Ellsbury 1, Pedroia 2, Crawford 3, AdGon 4, Youks 5, Ortiz 6. Injuries permitting.

 

The bigger question is Kalish. Epstein says he needs another year in AAA. That's another way of saying there is no room in the OF for him until Drew's contract expires. And they need some rhd bats--Cameron and McDonald, maybe, as backups. Bill James projects Kalish next year at 20Hrs, 82 rbis, 43 SBs, .271 ba--in Boston. That was before Crawford was signed. Kalish doesn't need another year in AAA. They just have no room for him.

 

I'm a big Kalish fan and would like to see him playing in Boston. However, he's played only 37 games in AAA and has only had 134 AB there. Some more seasoning is not uncalled for. He needs better pitch recognition / selection.

 

He'll be up before long.