Papelbon

[Dipre]

After all the talk about avoiding 1+ inning relief appearances for him... his shoulder gets overworked anyway? It would explain a lot. Two years just seems like a long time to decline without it becoming a serious issue.

 

That's what initially got me suspecting there may be something wrong with him. I've also noticed (and this i don't have a reference) a sharp decline in his control when he's used in consecutive appearances.

[Ravenous916]

I just don't get the pro -"trade him for beltran" logic -- beltran is 33 and hasnt played a full season in 2 years

[BSN07]

That's what initially got me suspecting there may be something wrong with him. I've also noticed (and this i don't have a reference) a sharp decline in his control when he's used in consecutive appearances.

 

If there is the possibility of something being wrong or him worrying something could happen, it would explain a lot.

 

Like I said before I think his main concern has been to get to Free Agency healthy. He hasn't been the same Paps the last couple years. "Tinfoil hat on", which was about the time he said he was going to go year to year and look to set the CL market This seems like a mid December topic that we are over analyzing because well, it's just that time of year. But I wouldn't be shocked if it came out eventually that he was saving himself these last couple years while on his way to Free Agency.

[redsoxrules]

Zero. he's declining. His fastball on some days are around 92-93. He can't throw his slider most of the time and his splitter will not save him if hitters lay off.

 

Bard has a better chance if the rotation is open.

 

average fastball speed by year

 

2006 94.3

2007 94.3

2008 95.3

2009 94.7

2010 94.9

 

he hasent lost any velocity he just dosent have a secondary pitch he can use effectively

[Dipre]

average fastball speed by year

 

2006 94.3

2007 94.3

2008 95.3

2009 94.7

2010 94.9

 

he hasent lost any velocity he just dosent have a secondary pitch he can use effectively

 

Physical issues not only affect a pitcher's velocity, but can screw up their mechanics as well. Otherwise, i don't see a viable explanation for him tripling his BB/9 from '08 to '09, and then adding another .60 increase from '09 to '10.

 

@BSN07:

 

This "saving himself" argument makes no sense. He threw more split-fingered fastballs (which are death on the forearm/elbow) and sliders than any other full season he's spent in the Majors, and at a higher average velocity . Theory and numbers simply don't correlate in this instance.

 

Something must be wrong either mechanically or physically, but there 's simply no indicator that he's not leaving it all on the field.

[BSN07]

Physical issues not only affect a pitcher's velocity, but can screw up their mechanics as well. Otherwise, i don't see a viable explanation for him tripling his BB/9 from '08 to '09, and then adding another .60 increase from '09 to '10.

 

@BSN07:

 

This "saving himself" argument makes no sense. He threw more split-fingered fastballs (which are death on the forearm/elbow) and sliders than any other full season he's spent in the Majors, and at a higher average velocity . Theory and numbers simply don't correlate in this instance.

 

Something must be wrong either mechanically or physically, but there 's simply no indicator that he's not leaving it all on the field.

 

Well I agreed he was throwing the splitter still. But it is a poor one that he seemingly throws out there just for show. His first couple years that was his big out pitch it seemed. But this just may be a case of losing a feel for a pitch.

[SoxSport]

I doubt Beltran is going anywhere unless the Mets pay most of his salary. They are stuck with an aging player with bad knees on the back end of a bad contract.