Anti Fantasy Semifinals: Ital v WB

[TheKilo]

Vote for the winner of this matchup starting Tuesday at 8:00 AM

[italstallianion]

Team: Erin Andrews Likes It Raw

 

 

QB: Peyton Manning

HB: Ray Rice

HB: Felix Jones

WR: Brandon Marshall

WR: Wes Welker

WR: Steve Smith (Car)

WR: Lee Evans

TE: Dallas Clark

RT: John Stinchcomb

RG: Ryan Lilja

C: Shaun O'Hara

LG: Alan Faneca

LT: Bryant Mckinnie

DE: Robert Mathis

DE: John Abraham

DT: Jon Babineaux

DT: Terrence Cody

OLB: Brian Cushing

OLB: Keith Rivers

ILB: EJ Henderson

CB: Terence Newman

CB: Charles Tillman

FS: Jairus Byrd

SS: Bernard Pollard

K: David Akers

P: Matt McBriar

KR/PR: Brandon Banks

HC: John Harbaugh

Bench: Sam Bradford QB

Bench: Gary Brackett ILB

[italstallianion]

WhiskeyBreath's Team:

 

QB: Ben Roethlisberger

HB: Jonathan Stewart

HB: Darren McFadden

WR: Calvin Johnson

WR: Vincent Jackson

WR: Davone Bess

WR: Steve Breaston

TE: Jermaine Gresham

 

RT: Damien Woody

RG: Mike Iupati

C: Eugene Amano

LG: Carl Nicks

LT: Jake Long

 

DE: Kyle Vanden Bosch

DE: Antwan Odom

DT: Darnell Dockett

DT: Sedrick Ellis

 

OLB: Terrell Suggs

OLB: Rey Maualuga

MLB: James Laurinaitis

 

CB: Darrelle Revis

CB: Dunta Robinson

CB: Leigh Bodden

FS: Antoine Bethea

SS: Michael Griffin

 

K: Jeff Reed

P: Brian Moorman

KR/PR: Ted Ginn Jr.

 

HC: Mike Tomlin

 

Bench: Jason Jones - DT

[italstallianion]

Similar to what Kilo said about his matchup, I had my team and WhiskeyBreath's team as the top 2, and Y228 and Kilo rounded out my top 4. Granted, I felt that all 4 teams are very close and it's not easy (if possible) to clearly say which team was the best in the league. My point is, I think that the top 4 teams made it to the final four, and anything after this is a crapshoot and is more a result of matchups and whichever few people vote than who has the best team.

 

I'm going to start with a position by position analysis like I did in my last matchup, but then I'm going to do an offense vs. opposing defense and vice versa analysis that other posters did in their matchup explanations. And then I'm going to address/refute some concerns that people had about my team in the previous round. So bare with me guys, this is going to take awhile.

 

 

QB:

I think the choice is clear here. I like Roethlisberger as a QB, but I'd take Manning as my favourite choice in the NFL, but Peyton/Brees/Brady (no particular order) are the top 3 QB's in the NFL. Roethlisberger gets bonus points for being the hardest QB to take down, but I think Peyton's superior ability to throw passes with pinpoint precision gives him the edge. Not a large one, but a clear one.

 

RB:

I think this spot is hard to choose. I think WhiskeyBreath got a steal in Jonathan Stewart and Darren Mcfadden, but they were steals more because of WHEN they were drafted, rather than who was drafted. WhiskeyBreath and I both have very young RB's with explosive potential. Our primary backs (Ray Rice and Jonathan Stewart) are both power backs that can run in between the tackles and are dynamic at catching passes out of the backfield. I would choose Rice as the best RB of the 4, but I think it's a matter of preference rather than talent. McFadden and Jones are both very explosive backs and were part of the same backfield in Arkansas. I see them getting more benefit in space outside of the tackles rather than up the middle. I think McFadden is a bit better than Jones, so I think our RB's even out since they have similar style and talent levels.

 

WR:

I think that there are 3 teams that have great 1-2 WR combos, and all 3 of them made the final four. I like WhiskeyBreath's 1-2 better than mine here, but I like my 4 WR's over his 4. Again, this is a matter of preference rather than a clear victory. I think I have a very deep WR core that can catch deep passes, can spread out on the edges, and catch short passes up the middle. WB has a very good WR core as well, but I'm not sold on his 3-4 WR's (Bess, Breaston) however great his 1-2 are. That said, I don't think it'll have a big effect on the game.

 

TE:

I wasn't a fan of the Gresham selection, and I'd put Clark as one of the top TE's in the league. Factor in that Clark and Manning have been on the same page for years and I think that that would give me a decent advantage in TE.

 

Offensive Line:

For whatever reason, I've taken a lot of crap for part of my offensive line, and I don't really buy any of it. I have a very experienced Pro Bowl offensive line that can pass block and run block. Granted, don't be confused because I think that WhiskeyBreath has a better offensive line. His line isn't nearly as experienced, but it is younger. His offensive line might be more risky, but he's got some franchise players that should keep Roethlisberger reasonably clean. I like my offensive line a lot and I don't think it deserves a lot of the criticism it's gotten thus far, but I give WB the edge here. I like some of the risks he's taken here.

 

Before I start with defense, I just wanted to say that I like how the two 4-3 defenses are facing one another and the two 3-4 defenses are facing each other. I think that it makes it a lot easier to compare the defensive units as a whole.

 

Defensive Line: I think both lines are pretty even, but it balances out. I like my defensive ends (Robert Mathis and Jon Abraham) more than Kyle Vanden Bosch and Antwan Odom, but WhiskeyBreath makes up for it by having a superior defensive line. Darnell Dockett and Sedrick Ellis are very good defensive tackles. I like Babineaux a lot because he fits my scheme and can generate turnovers, and I got Terrence Cody as a sleeper pick because he can absolutely clog the gaps and draw double teams. If Terrence Cody does anything like he did in Alabama, then I'd have a great defensive line. Right now I'd say it's even, but if Cody does what he did in Alabama, then I'd have the edge. I also like his bench DT, although I don't think it was a wise bench choice considering how good his DT's were to begin with. I think that Jones would have been more useful as a bench DT (or even starting DT) on another team.

 

Linebackers:

I like WhiskeyBreath's linebackers a lot here, although one problem is that Terrell Suggs is a 3-4 OLB being pushed into a 4-3 OLB. Probably not the hugest of deals, but it is worth noting. I'd put Mauluga and Keith Rivers in the same category of player. They are both Bengals 4-3 OLB's from USC and I think their numbers are similar. I like Rivers potential more, but now it's about even. I am a big fan of Brian Cushing, but I think that is self explanatory. As for ILB's, I think that Laurinitis has the highest potential of the group, but I think that I made a better use of my bench spot by taking a backup 4-3 ILB rather than a 3rd 4-3 DT. Both of my ILB's can be signal callers and are good tacklers. I'm not saying that Laurinitis isn't because I think he's a freak of a defensive player, but I think the gap is made smaller because I have 2 very good (although older) ILB's.

 

Considering everything, I'd take my front 7 over his, but it's not clear and obvious. I think I made a better choice in my backup and Suggs is out of position. I think I have much better DE's, but WB has better DT's and an ILB.

 

Secondary

I think that WhiskeyBreath clearly wins this one. Darrelle Revis is one of the best CB's in the game, and he has one of the few secondary's that has 4 good players. I think that my secondary is good as well with turnover producers, good tacklers and playmakers, but it doesn't match WB's secondary.

 

Special Teams:

I like both kickers here. They both have playoff experience and have good percentages despite playing mostly in poor weather stadiums. I'm not sure why Reed was released by the Steelers, but he's now on the 49ers, which isn't necessarily an easy job either. In a close game, I think that special teams (kicking and field position) is increasingly important, which is the only reason why I'm going into as much detail here.

 

Here is their career percentages done by distance

 

0-19 yards 20-29 yards 30-39 yards 40-49 yards 50+ Long:

Akers 100% Akers 98.9% Akers 88% Akers 70.6% Akers 48.38% Akers 57

Reed 100% Reed 92.2% Reed 91% Reed 66% Reed 47.05% Reed 53

 

 

Given this, I'd give Akers an edge in a matchup, it's a small deal, but in one game, these small deals can make a big difference.

 

As for punters, the only real comparable statistic is career average punting length, which has Moorman at 43.5yards, and Matt Mcbriar at 45.4yards. Granted, this is dependent on other variables, but that would also favour my guy. Granted his guy has been to 2 pro bowls while mine has only been to 1.

 

I can't really compare kick returners that well. I think his is more of a "big name guy" in Ted Ginn Jr. but my guy Brandon Banks is one of those shorter runners that's harder to bring down. He's had a few return TD's that have been called off from holding. Even nixing those 2 TD returns, Brandon Banks has higher career averages (albeit he's a rookie) than Ginn Jr. They both return kickoffs and punts, so there's no deduction there for either player.

 

Kickoff return average Punt return average

Banks: 26.3 yards Banks: 10.8 yards

Ginn Jr : 23 yards Ginn Jr. 9.5 yards

 

Again, it's not much and it's dependent on other variables (blocking, opposing coverage etc) but it's worth mentioning.

 

As for coaches I like them both. Both are hardnosed defensive coaches. Tomlin might get a bonus for his Superbowl win.

 

 

 

Conclusion: In the end, we both have very good teams and it's worthy of a final four matchup. I think it would have been funny if Jbay beat WhiskeyBreath so that Jbay and I would face in the semifinals of all 3 redrafts, and I might have had a shot at WhiskeyBreath in the finals of the NBA redraft, but I felt that it was more important to move on with this one, and WhiskeyBreath probably would have won that one anyway.

 

In this case, I think overall we have very similar teams. I like my offense better, but I think that WhiskeyBreath has more gamechangers on defense whereas my defense is made up of a bunch of overall good guys, but doesn't have any superstars. That said, I think that when comparing everything, from little details in special teams to x-factors to players playing in correct/incorrect positions, I think that my team would have an edge in a neutral field. I would be surprised if either team wins by more than 4 points. I'd put a spread at 3.5 points. I'll get into more specific offense vs. defense matchups after a break.

[italstallianion]

Gameplan:

 

My offense vs. WB defense:

 

Passing Game:

I think that my team is going to have some trouble passing the ball against WB's corners. If any team has a shot can pass against his defense, it'd be my team. Peyton Manning is one of the top 3 QB's in the NFL, I have 3 very good WR's and a top TE. Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith can flank the edges (Brandon Marshall is listed at 6' 4" 230, and Steve Smith is a deep threat) and Welker, Evans, and Clark can occupy the center of the field. Welker is great at getting yards after the catch, and Manning and Clark can complete passes in their sleep.

 

With Darrelle Revis on WB's defense, I'm pretty much going without one of my WR's. I think that WB's bench CB choice helps him against my defense. To be honest, I see this game being a track meet. I see Peyton Manning as being too good and accurate and with too many weapons on offense to be completely stopped.

 

While my passing game might not light up WB's defense, I do think that Peyton Manning will have plenty of time to locate his targets. WB has 2 very good DT's up the middle, but I'm not a big fan of his DE's, and I'd be optimistic that my Pro Bowl offensive line can keep Manning clean. In addition, Rice is good at blocking and picking up the blitz, and many of my WR's (Welker, and Smith especially) are good blockers as well as Dallas Clark.

 

In order to beat my offense, WB's defense is going to have to pressure Manning and make tackles. I don't see his defense really disrupting Manning, and if you give a great QB like Manning that much time to throw, it'd be like Thanksgiving dinner. He has a very good secondary and some good linebackers, so I'd have to run the gamut on offense in order to consistently score points, which my team can do. My roster can use a full playbook: short passes, screens, mid-range, baseline out routes, crossing patterns etc. Peyton Manning can execute these throws. Peyton Manning can read defenses better than most QB's and can call the right audibles to make the offenses work.

 

Running Game:

I think that in order to win this game, my running game is going to have to step up. Fortunately, I have two good RB's, one of which is a very reliable and consistent ball carrier (Ray Rice) who I consider to be a poor man's Maurice Jones-Drew. He can block, catch passes, make people miss, and grind up the middle. However, since WB has two good DT's, I see him best being used outside of the tacklebox, with screens and short passes. This is what Felix Jones is made for. He isn't as built as Ray Rice is, so he won't get as many carries per game, but he is f***** explosive. He can make people miss in the open field and he will be tough to tackle. For the record, Felix Jones has the highest yards per carry (career) of the 4 running backs at 5.2 with Johnathan Stewart in 2nd, Ray Rice in 3rd, and Darren McFadden being last.

 

With my offensive line, I think I can create the holes to make my RB's effective. My offensive line isn't as young as WB's is, but it's more experienced and 4 of the 5 guys a Pro Bowlers, with the 5th guy being on one of the top running teams in the NFL (Ryan Lilja of the Chiefs, who was on the Colts for many years)

 

I think that getting my RB's outside of the tackles is going to be a huge key to the game, and god forbid any of his players get sucked in on a play action pass or else you can take it to the bank. Peyton Manning doesn't miss those shots.

 

I have no doubts that my offense will be able to put significant points on the board, I think the challenge of the matchup is my defense keeping WB's offensive points to a minimum.

[italstallianion]

My defense vs. WhiskeyBreath's offense:

 

Passing Game:

WhiskeyBreath has a good offense. He's got a good (although not a top tier) QB, he's got a good young RB tandem and a great 1-2 WR's. My CB's are overall pretty good, not great, but Tillman is very good at forcing fumbles and creating turnovers, and Terence Newman is better at covering. My key factor would be my defenses ability to make tackles. My linebackers are all very good tacklers, as are my safeties. I believe that they can keep YAC to a minimum and keep the offense in front of them.

 

In addition, I think that my team has a very good pass rush. Jon Abraham generates a lot of sacks, and Robert Mathis gets a lot of sack/fumbles. While Roethlisberger is really hard to take down, I see my defense generating a few sacks, but PRIMARILY hitting Roethlisberger as he's throwing, or making him throw early and on the move, which will sacrifice his accuracy a bit. This will help out my secondary and linebackers a bit. I'm not saying that my defense won't allow many points, but Roethlisberger is going to get hit a fair amount as he's throwing and passes are going to be tipped.

 

WhiskeyBreath has a young and athletic offensive line, at the sacrifice of experience. I doubt that Roethlisberger will get sacked a lot, so he'll have his shots at passes.

 

 

Running Game:

I think that my run defense is more vulnerable to WB's team than my pass defense. My DE's aren't great against the run, but in a typical 4-3 form, I have a faster DT in Jonathan Babineaux, and I have a 2 gap clogging Mount Cody as my other DT. I see WB's offensive line getting tied up in my defensive line, which will make it hard to make holes in the middle, and will allow for my linebackers to blitz and provide more pressure. If Terrence Cody can develop into a truly talented DT, then offensive lines are going to be in trouble.

 

While WR has very good WR's, I don't think that many of them are good blockers which will allow my secondary to get more tackles and prevent longer runs and scores. I think the key to my defense is tackling and preventing the deep ball. My defense is very good at tackling, so I don't see short runs turning into long runs. This game will come down to possession and converting downs.

 

I already addressed Special Teams earlier and there isn't really any scheming to do there. I'm going to go over some criticisms about my team in the next portion.

[italstallianion]

To address some of the concerns about my team, I'll go over a few things

 

1. I do see Harbaugh as being a very good coach for my team. My team is obviously offensively gifted and designed to score many points on any defense. The obvious weakness of my team is an average defense. John Harbaugh helps out my defense and can make my defense keep up with my offense. Even then, it's somewhat of a moot point because we don't have offensive/defensive coordinators. If we did, and I chose a defensive coordinator as my offensive coordinator, then YH's argument would have some merit. Here it doesn't because it's a HC selection, not a coordinator selection. In addition, Harbaugh helps my team where it needs it. Peyton Manning can teach Harbaugh about offense, so he doesn't need help from the HC, as it'll be the job of the offensive coordinator.

 

2. I don't buy any of the garbage that my team doesn't have variety. I have 2 very good and explosive RB's that can beat a defense up the middle or from side to side. I have a few good slot WR's that make a living catching short passes and making defenders miss after the catch. I have a good deep threat in Steve Smith, and Marshall can be used deep considering his great size advantage over QB's. Not to mention that I have one of the best and smartest QB's in the game who can tell what a defense is doing before the defense knows what it's doing.

 

3. I resent the fact that one would insinuate that my RB's aren't "rocks". My RB's get a lot of carries per game, and the fact that Peyton Manning is as good of a QB as he is, means that I'm not going to need AS many carries per game. Combine that with the fact that I have 2 RB's good enough to start for teams means that they should be in good enough shape to make carries throughout the game and throughout the season. Keep in mind that both backs are 23 at the moment. Ray Rice and Felix Jones are both large parts of their offenses, and they should become more effective now that they aren't going to be asked to carry (literally) their respective offenses. They both can, but they don't have to.

 

4. While my defense does have many veterans, they are not that old or on the downswing. I have many young guys in Brian Cushing (23), Keith Rivers (24), Jairus Byrd (24), Bernard Pollard (25), and Terrence Cody (22). That's nearly half of my defense right there at 25 or younger. I only have 2 defensive players over 30. One is Terence Newman and the other is John Abraham.

[yankees228]

I like Ital's team here. While I think he has some issues on the offensive line, I absolutely love his offense. Putting all those receivers around Peyton Manning, with two solid running backs, is unstoppable. It isn't a hodgepodge of talent in my opinion. Each player seems to have his role, and Peyton will find a way to utilize them. WB's pass rush is hurt with Suggs out of position, as he'll be asked to do things in this 4-3 scheme that he has never done before with the Ravens. On the whole, I don't love his linebackers, especially in coverage. I think Peyton will be very successful working the middle of the field, and will find the end zone often.

 

As is common in these match-ups, I also like the other team's ability to move the ball. WB has a lot of talent with well defined roles on that side of the ball. I don't think too highly of Ital's corners, and I think Roethlisberger and his receivers will have success throwing the ball. But I like Ital's speed rushers to make enough plays against the pass to help seal this game for Ital.

[yrtb]

I like ital's team here as well. With Peyton Manning and all of the weapons around him, he will dominate. I also like his offensive line, and WB's pass rush isn't all that impressive, even though his secondary is very good. In addition, ital has a great blocking RB and TE, so Manning will have all day, and ital easily has the best 1-2-3 in the league...I mean Steve Smith as a #3 receiver is pretty sick

 

WB will also put up points on ital, but ital has a more dangerous pass rush, and IMO will be able to stop WB's run game fairly effectively, forcing him to air it out

[TheKilo]

I think this is a pretty even matchup, I'd like to post some preliminary thoughts on each team.

 

I think ital's O-line is the worst of the four remaining, but i think they can do a good enough job on WB's pass rush to give Manning time.

 

I don't agree that his 1-2-3 are the best in the game.

Marshall and Welker are redundant in this offense. Smith is OK but does anyone really think he'll be the deep treat hebis now in three years?

 

That being said, ital has a great QB and an excellent safety blanket in Clark, who I imagine will do some serious

damage over the middle.

 

This game has shootout written all over it, but because of

the Jackson/Johnson/Bess tandem ( who I like better than ital's), I think WB can make more big plays in the end.

 

WB 35 ital 30

[YanksHater213]

WB

 

He's got a true RB tandem in two guys who are used to and know how to split carries. He's got a good WR core with defined roles. To sum it up in on sentence, I love WB's offense and hate Ital's defense.

[italstallianion]

I know that a lot of people rip on my defense, but I'm one of the ONLY people to set his defense correctly, and that should be worth a lot of points that most people are missing (especially considering that most people butchered their defenses by putting players out of position)

 

My defense has a lot of up and coming guys with mid level veterans and great tacklers. I don't see how my defense would allow more points than my lethal offense would unleash when it rip out its rock hard veiny black cock and sodomizes opposing defenses. My offense would f*** his defense until it loves me.

[YanksHater213]

His defense is definitely better than yours.

[italstallianion]

His defense is definitely better than yours.

 

 

 

Oh, I agree, but I don't see his offense scoring more points on my defense than my offense will score on his defense.

 

My defense is obviously the weakpoint of my team, but the fact that I'm one of the only guys to set it up correctly, and how good my young guys are means that it isn't nearly as bad as people think. It's not as good as WB's defense, nor is it nearly as good as my offense, but I don't see it allowing more points to WB's offense than my offense will score on his defense. At all.

 

 

And the fact that most people set their defenses up so horribly proves the fact that a lot of people aren't bright enough to vote in this thing.

[YanksHater213]

The fact that I wasn't even in the top 5 shows people really don't know what they're doing. If they can't set up their own team right, how are they going to fairly judge my team?

[italstallianion]

For the record, I thought your team was 5th or 6th. I had these final 4 teams as the top 4, but I had you and Jbay just outside that group. I think I put Jbay at 5 and you at 6, but I figured that both were reasonably interchangeable. But your point is valid, a lot of people clearly don't know what they are talking about here. But there's been some of that in all 3 redrafts that I've seen.

[YanksHater213]

I'm not bitter, I could really care less if I win or lose in this thing. I think that a lot of people looked at the flashy offenses and big name players when they made their picks (not taking a dig at anyone ranked ahead of me or below me whatsoever). I just think that my team didn't get the proper respect it deserved.

[yankees228]

I think YH deserved to be higher in the rankings, probably at 3 or 4. But based on the way he constructed his team (and this isn't his fault), I'm also not surprised that he was ranked 6th.

[TheKilo]

This matchup is tied 2-2. Next vote by a participant of this league decides it.

[Divinity]

I vote Ital, I like WB's Defense and Ital's Offense, very close matchup however I think it would come down to Ital's team scoring more points then his defense would give up.