Your Red Sox top prospect lists

[Meh]

I'm always interested to see other teams prospects lists. It gives me a better idea on their farm and I think everyone has fun filling out lists haha. So if you have your own top 5, 10, 20, 3, etc post it.

[example1]

I like this thread...

 

In terms of MLB career impact when all is said and done, I will guess my top 7:

 

1. Jose Iglesias

2. Kolbrin Vitek

3. Anthony Ranaudo

4. Ryan Kalish

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Casey Kelly

7. Stolmy Pimentel

 

I think all 7 will have pretty good MLB careers. I'm probably forgetting a few guys though...

[Meh]

I like this thread...

 

In terms of MLB career impact when all is said and done, I will guess my top 7:

 

1. Jose Iglesias

2. Kolbrin Vitek

3. Anthony Ranaudo

4. Ryan Kalish

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Casey Kelly

7. Stolmy Pimentel

 

I think all 7 will have pretty good MLB careers. I'm probably forgetting a few guys though...

How are you basing it off of? Like potential or reachable potential or maybe even a different way? I like your list if its reachable potential, but just poential overall, Ranaudo has to be no 1.

[example1]

It's a combination of potential, position and likelyhood that they will reach that level.

 

I think Iglesias will be an above average MLB SS. I think you can write him that ticket right now. Two years from now he will be starting and his defense (like Beltre's) will pave his way there and keep him there. Given that we're talking about a players who range from 18-23 years old, that seems like a really solid resume.

 

I don't think there's another Sox player who will waltz as easily to the big league club as Iglesias will.

 

Ranaudo has the best upside with his stuff and frame, but pitchers flame out and he certainly can. A year from now my opinion might be different.

[Yaz Sideburn]

my personal 10

 

ryan westmoreland

anthony ranaudo

casey kelly

ryan kalish

lars anderson

jose iglesias

anthony rizzo

felix doubront

kolbrin vitek

reymond fuentes

[Spudboy]

I like this thread...

 

In terms of MLB career impact when all is said and done, I will guess my top 7:

 

1. Jose Iglesias

2. Kolbrin Vitek

3. Anthony Ranaudo

4. Ryan Kalish

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Casey Kelly

7. Stolmy Pimentel

 

I think all 7 will have pretty good MLB careers. I'm probably forgetting a few guys though...

 

I like your list.

 

I'd add Hazelbaker (sp) and Middlebrook (sp).

[example1]

I like your list.

 

I'd add Hazelbaker (sp) and Middlebrook (sp).

 

I think it is going to be hard for Hazelbaker, 23, to get his shot with the club. He's definitely going to have to impress, with so many similar-aged OFs like Kalish (22), Lin (21), Reddick (23), and Westmoreland (20). That's a lot of low cost talent maturing at the same time.

 

As for Middlebrooks, he doesn't belong in that list for me becase I have little assurance that his natural talent would get him to the league. His upside is that if he fills out and his skills continue to develop as his body does, he could be an all-star. That variation is too much for me.

 

Doubront is probably the next player on my list:

 

8. Doubront

 

 

After that I see a lot of players who have the talent to contribute significantly at the MLB level, but who's skills aren't there yet:

 

Anderson, Reddick, Middlebrooks, Balcom-Miller, Younginer, Fuentes, Lin, Exposito, Renfroe, Lavarnway, Brentz.

[ORS]

I don't see how Vitek gets into someone's list, whether it be a top 7, or 10, or whatever, over Lavarnway. Lavarnway may be incapable of playing his current position, catcher, at the big league level, then again he may be adequate enough to consider it, but his bat is looking like it is legit at other, less demanding, positions. He's done nothing but hit at every level, with good power.

 

Vitek may be better in the end, but there's too little to go on to suggest he should rank above Lavarnway right now, IMO.

 

I think Drake Britton passes Pimentel on many lists next year too.

 

My top 10 is as follows.....(giving extra weight for accomplishment at higher levels, ie they are closer and there's less risk they completely flop, IMO, while also considering age/level and talent/potential)

 

1. Ryan Kalish

2. Anthony Rizzo

3. Jose Iglesias

4. Casey Kelly

5. Ryan Lavarnway

6. Anthony Ranaudo

7. Lars Anderson

8. Drake Britton

9. Will Middlebrooks

10. Oscar Tejeda

[Meh]

1. Ryan Kalish

2. Anthony Rizzo

3. Jose Iglesias

4. Casey Kelly

5. Ryan Lavarnway

6. Anthony Ranaudo

7. Lars Anderson

8. Drake Britton

9. Will Middlebrooks

10. Oscar Tejeda

 

I do like your list haha. Mind if I ask what do you think Kelly's ceiling is? Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc

[ORS]

I won't even pretend to guess how good someone I've never seen pitch could get. I think every prospect with very good tools has the potential to have it click and become phenominal. In Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract he said something very interesting about Pedro Martinez.

 

To paraphrase: The difference between 7! and 10! is only 3 things (8, 9, and 10), but in terms of magnitude it's 700x greater. With pitchers, three little things like a little extra velocity, a little extra movement, and little better command, combined with a little extra deception (changing arm angle, speeds, etc) can have the same type of impact magnitude. Pedro didn't have the best fastball, or the most movement, or the best command, or the most deception, but when you combine everything, he's that much better than everyone else (not 700x better, but you get the idea).

 

This was from the 2003 edition of his book. Any of these things could happen with Kelly, well except for maybe the deception part. If they do, he could be very, very good. So, his ceiling, like that of many others, is very high.

 

Now, how good do I think he'll be? If he makes standard progress, he's probably a 2-3.

[example1]

I don't see how Vitek gets into someone's list, whether it be a top 7, or 10, or whatever, over Lavarnway. Lavarnway may be incapable of playing his current position, catcher, at the big league level, then again he may be adequate enough to consider it, but his bat is looking like it is legit at other, less demanding, positions. He's done nothing but hit at every level, with good power.

 

Vitek may be better in the end, but there's too little to go on to suggest he should rank above Lavarnway right now, IMO.

 

 

There's a lot of people who rate Vitek above Lavarnway. I love Lavarnway's prospects and both his power and OBP are amazing. As you note, his numbers haven't slipped a bit since high school and that's impressive given that progressively difficult challenges he's faced. I just don't know where he fits and there seems to be something about him that, at the age of 23 in AA, keeps him from climbing the ranks of both prospect lists and the Sox system.

 

I realize Vitek hasn't done very much in pro-ball yet. However I feel okay putting him where I did because:

 

1) He has roughly as many ABs as Iglesias does in pro ball.

2) He has a college track-record and we know roughly what that competition level is

3) The Sox rated him highly enough to spend their highest draft-pick of the Theo/Henry era on him.

 

I don't disagree with your assessment ORS, but I think there's good reason to put Vitek higher than Lavarnway, especially since I set my own criteria.

[jacksonianmarch]

Example, Vitek is a good player, but they drafted him knowing he would sign for slot. He isnt even the highest ceiling player in the sox draft class, let alone the #2 prospect in the system. Ranaudo should be ahead of him, and I agree with ORS. Vitek should probably be your #10 and Lavarnway should be ahead of him

[ORS]

3) The Sox rated him highly enough to spend their highest draft-pick of the Theo/Henry era on him.

Jason Place.

 

Meh.

[Meh]

2008 you had Kelly and Price. Kelly is looking like a middle of the roto SP, which isn't a bad thing. Price doesn't look like a 1st rounf talent.

 

2007 you had Hagadone who I've always liked and Dent who looks like a wasted pick.

 

2006 you had Place, Bard, Clay and Johnson. Bard is a stud, but the rest are meh.

 

2005 you had Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Hansen. Hansen is out of baseball I think. Lowrie and Bowden don't scream 1st round talent but they could help in lesser roles like as a UTL player and a middle reliever. Buchholz and Ells were hits, obviously.

 

Even in 2009 with Fuentes, it's too early to say for certain but he hasn't seperated himself yet.

 

Thats 13, or 14 if you count Fuentes first round picks in five years.... Kelly, Hagadone(who is with the Guardians), Bard, Ells abd Buchholz were your hits. I'm not saying the Yankees are good drafters either.

[example1]

Example' date=' Vitek is a good player, but they drafted him knowing he would sign for slot. He isnt even the highest ceiling player in the sox draft class, let alone the #2 prospect in the system. Ranaudo should be ahead of him, and I agree with ORS. Vitek should probably be your #10 and Lavarnway should be ahead of him[/quote']

 

 

The fact that he was a college position player had a lot to do with why he signed for the amount that he did.

 

My rankings aren't about highest ceiling. If it was all ceiling then it would be Ranaudo and Kelly and Younginer and Almanzar and Brentz etc.,

 

 

ORS, RE-JASON PLACE: a high upside HS talent is different from an established college player. The established college player fits the mold of Lowrie, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis while the HS talent does not.

 

This is all a subjective ranking. Clearly people don't agree with Vitek being as high on my list. I'm not the only one who puts Lavarnway below Vitek. Even SP puts him below Vitek and while I don't see them as gospel, I feel fine agreeing with parts of their rankings.

 

We can check in on this discussion in 5-10 years.

[Rdsxmbnt]

2008 you had Kelly and Price. Kelly is looking like a middle of the roto SP, which isn't a bad thing. Price doesn't look like a 1st rounf talent.

 

2007 you had Hagadone who I've always liked and Dent who looks like a wasted pick.

 

2006 you had Place, Bard, Clay and Johnson. Bard is a stud, but the rest are meh.

 

2005 you had Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Hansen. Hansen is out of baseball I think. Lowrie and Bowden don't scream 1st round talent but they could help in lesser roles like as a UTL player and a middle reliever. Buchholz and Ells were hits, obviously.

 

Even in 2009 with Fuentes, it's too early to say for certain but he hasn't seperated himself yet.

 

Thats 13, or 14 if you count Fuentes first round picks in five years.... Kelly, Hagadone(who is with the Guardians), Bard, Ells abd Buchholz were your hits. I'm not saying the Yankees are good drafters either.

 

That seems like exceptional drafting. Im guessing less than half of the first round and supplement picks become major leaguers, let alone all-star type players. In 2005 Theo's first 5 draft picks became major league baseball players, that's great drafting.

[jacksonianmarch]

The percentage is much higher for the first round than it is anywhere else. IIRC, from picks 15-30, 50% make it, some 30% or so in the supp round to round 2, then after that it is something below 5%. I remember a study done on it a few yrs back, and this is my recollection

[Meh]

That seems like exceptional drafting. Im guessing less than half of the first round and supplement picks become major leaguers' date=' let alone all-star type players. In 2005 Theo's first 5 draft picks became major league baseball players, that's great drafting.[/quote']

 

First rounders for a team that can pay for good scouting should most get 50% hit rating in the 1st round. I'm just saying just cause Vitek is a 1st rounder made by Theo, doesn't mean he's going be good.

[Yaz Sideburn]

First rounders for a team that can pay for good scouting should most get 50% hit rating in the 1st round. I'm just saying just cause Vitek is a 1st rounder made by Theo' date=' doesn't mean he's going be good.[/quote']

 

just because vitek is a 1st round pick by theo doesn't mean he'll be good, but theo has a very good track record with the college players he's picked in the first round. clay buchholz, jacoby ellsbury, daniel bard, jed lowrie, david murphy and matt murton are all first round picks out of college

 

and then there's the fact that vitek has looked pretty good playing in the minors so far

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree, Vitek was a solid, safe pick. He looks like a true blue all around player who should easily make the bigs. But just because he was the first rounder doesnt mean he's the best player in the draft. That's my point here.

[example1]

I agree' date=' Vitek was a solid, safe pick. He looks like a true blue all around player who should easily make the bigs. But just because he was the first rounder doesnt mean he's the best player in the draft. That's my point here.[/quote']

 

But your point isn't relevant to the thread, which is "Your Red Sox top prospect lists", not "best player in the draft". Nobody is saying Vitek has the highest ceiling, but even you say he "looks like a true blue all around player who should easily make the bigs". To me that's a valuable chip to have in the hand and is someone they shouldn't/won't give up on or move too quickly.

 

These lists deserve nuance and description about the criteria each of our lists uses. Like I said, mine was a combination of ceiling, position and likelyhood that the player will make it to the Red Sox (as opposed to being traded a la David Murphy/Nick Hagadone). As much as I like Lavarnway, I don't have faith he will easily slot into a DH or 1B slot on this club, even in 2-3 years if he can't stick at C.

 

They are slotting Vitek at 3B (unsure whether he will stick) and, to me, that's a pipeline to the big club if he can stick.

 

I'm interested in your list Jacko... let's see it... and those of others.

[Meh]

Mine and I don't view your system all that often...

 

1. Ranaudo, really like him. I think the potential to be an all star is there and a front line starter.

2. Kalish, another guy I respect in the system. I don't think he's going to blow the world away but he's got some upside to him.

3. Westmoreland. He's be number if it wasn't for his issues but I still like him a lot. The chance he does come back 100% makes him No 3 for me.

4. Iglesias not sold on the bat just yet, but I heard some very good things about his glove.

5. Kelly, just not a fan.

6. Rizzo, I think he's a solid prospect here. Everyone is getting hard over his homers but he is a 1B so I tend to tone down the hype a tad.

7. Fuentes, potenial five tool player, sure the potential isn't that great but still a chance and I'm a gambling man.

8. Lavarnway, hitter but is he a catcher?

9. Tejeda, liked him in the 2006 ifa class, still like him.

10. Britton, he's going to be in the big leagues. Middle roto, backend or middle reliever is up in the air but I still like him.

 

 

Not a fan of Anderson at all. I actually forgot about Doubront but I'd have him around 6-7

[jacksonianmarch]

If he isnt even the best player in his own draft, how can he be the #2 prospect in the entire system? Get my drift

[example1]

If he isnt even the best player in his own draft' date=' how can he be the #2 prospect in the entire system? Get my drift[/quote']

 

I get your drift, but disagree. I'm comfortable with my selection.

[Meh]

You know I didn't think the Sox system was this good until I filled out my top 10. Not as good as the Yankees, but still haha

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have a very solid farm system even past their top 10. Their issue is that a lot of their talent is in the short season leagues and should start blossoming next yr in the long season leagues. One guy I think will pop in Greenville next yr is Madison Younginer. Throws very hard but has had some lumps in Lowell this yr. If he figures it out, he'll be akin to Casey Kelly in the sox system in terms of hype, but he'll actually be worth it

[Station 13]

Younginer is very raw with good potential. Haha I love his interview wanting to be the Sox ace.

[Yaz Sideburn]

You know I didn't think the Sox system was this good until I filled out my top 10. Not as good as the Yankees' date=' but still haha[/quote']

 

the farm system's not as good as the yankees right now, but our young players actually in the majors are much better

[jacksonianmarch]

Thats not really up for debate. As I've said many times before, the sox got quite a head start on the farm system building idea, even though it boggles my mind that they havent been doing this all along, but so be it

[Meh]

Thats not really up for debate. As I've said many times before' date=' the sox got quite a head start on the farm system building idea, even though it boggles my mind that they havent been doing this all along, but so be it[/quote']

 

Nah, well the MUCH better part is, but the part soley part is not.