Yankees 2010-2011 Hotstove Thread

[yankees228]

Yankee fans overrate him. He is a nice 4th OFer type as was Chad Curtis' date=' but he is not the best at anything. He is a great base stealer, but the stats this year indicate otherwise. Do you see how stats can mislead? The one thing he is great at and the stats show him to be just Eh.[/quote']

 

Except the stats are right ... he isn't a great stealer. He's extremely fast, but at this point in his career, his instincts on the bases have a lot of room for improvement.

[a700hitter]

Except the stats are right ... he isn't a great stealer. He's extremely fast' date=' but at this point in his career, his instincts on the bases have a lot of room for improvement.[/quote']If you need a stolen base, who do you want on first base? He's in a bit of a bad streak right now, but he is the best base stealer on the team. He needs some coaching right now. Before this year, he had 85 steals in 100 attempts. That's a stat for you. That's pretty great and it supports what is pretty obvious -- that he is a huge stolen base threat. It's his best feature, but for that, he probably never plays in the majors. His other skills are marginal.

[yankees228]

If you need a stolen base' date=' who do you want on first base? He's in a bit of a bad streak right now, but he is the best base stealer on the team. He needs some coaching right now. Before this year, he had 85 steals in 100 attempts. That's a stat for you. That's pretty great and it supports what is pretty obvious -- that he is a huge stolen base threat. It's his best feature, but for that, he probably never plays in the majors. His other skills are marginal.[/quote']

 

Except now the entire league knows about him, and his speed will surprise no one. Since he has received attention as a premium base stealer, his numbers haven't been nearly as good. Instead of just outrunning the ball, he needs to learn how to read pitchers and get good jumps.

[Emmz]

Popularity based on past performance, not popularity based on personality.

 

And I checked Gardner's stats, that's the entire point. 6.2 fWAR last year.

 

Usually you use OBP+, with some UZR, but since OBP+ says he's just mediocre, you use fWAR because it makes him look like he has value. I'm glad you give me the opportunity to expose the flaw in this argument, he was worth $24.9 million dollars last year. WAR does not work here, obviously.

 

He's good for about a .730-750 OPS in NYS, which is under 100 OPS+ (Just going by his career).

 

That's very mediocre, and he's vastly overrated.

[yankees228]

Usually you use OBP+, with some UZR, but since OBP+ says he's just mediocre, you use fWAR because it makes him look like he has value. I'm glad you give me the opportunity to expose the flaw in this argument, he was worth $24.9 million dollars last year. WAR does not work here, obviously.

 

He's good for about a .730-750 OPS in NYS, which is under 100 OPS+ (Just going by his career).

 

That's very mediocre, and he's vastly overrated.

 

Or I used fWAR because it's widely regarded in the statistical community as the best statistic when it comes to measuring the production of an individual player. But choose to see it as you will.

[yankees228]

And I love how WAR doesn't work here because it doesn't reflect your personal opinion of the player's ability. Yet I'm the one with the flawed argument. Beautifully done.

[Emmz]

Or I used fWAR because it's widely regarded in the statistical community as the best statistic when it comes to measuring the production of an individual player. But choose to see it as you will.

 

I think it's very safe to say that WAR is just a wee bit off, seeing as though he has yet to produce anywhere close to an .800 OPS season, but see it through pinstriped glasses if you want, your argument is way off. WAR is not the end of all discussions, whether you want it to be or not.

 

His production is horseshit, .730 OPS is not productive. He's a mediocre offensive player who's a plus in the field.

[Emmz]

And I love how WAR doesn't work here because it doesn't reflect your personal opinion of the player's ability. Yet I'm the one with the flawed argument. Beautifully done.

 

Lol, WAR doesn't work because it's obviously flawed in some cases. JD Drew wasn't even worth that much in 2008 or 2009 when he was on base almost 40% of the time, with over .900 OPS.

 

Gardner is a decent glove at a position where it really doesn't matter, anyone with a decent glove can play a corner outfield position competently.

 

He's average at best offensively.

[yankees228]

You've yet to explain why WAR is flawed. All you've said is "WAR is flawed because it says this player is this good and he isn't this good". Until you've explained that you haven't countered the idea that in 2010 Brett Gardner was as good as his WAR suggests.

[a700hitter]

Except now the entire league knows about him' date=' and his speed will surprise no one. Since he has received attention as a premium base stealer, his numbers haven't been nearly as good. Instead of just outrunning the ball, he needs to learn how to read pitchers and get good jumps.[/quote']

If he can't be an elite base stealer, he's basically useless for an organization like the Yankees and he will not be with them very long. You will see.

[Emmz]

You've yet to explain why WAR is flawed. All you've said is "WAR is flawed because it says this player is this good and he isn't this good". Until you've explained that you haven't countered the idea that in 2010 Brett Gardner was as good as his WAR suggests.

 

You just posted it without any backing otherwise. Usually WAR goes with other stats as a support. You don't have the backing stats. Anyways, his WAR is inflated by his UZR, which is the best fielding stat available, but almost anyone will tell you, that it's not reliable. UZR is actually very flawed. Several players who are considered elite defenders of their positions end up with negative UZR sandwiched in between two seasons that were well above average. The corner outfield positions from what I've seen, are among the most effected, along with first base.

 

So where's your backing up? I've done mine. Where's yours? You haven't done one thing so far except throw out WAR, which you consider to be undefeatable, regardless of what kind of logical argument can be made. I can be an ass out of frustration too.

[yankees228]

If he can't be an elite base stealer' date=' he's basically useless for an organization like the Yankees and he will not be with them very long. You will see.[/quote']

 

Yup, utterly useless. He does nothing else well. Chad Curtis 2.0. Etc etc.

 

Empty reasoning followed by profound statements based on that empty reasoning. I've heard better arguments.

[Emmz]

Yup, utterly useless. He does nothing else well. Chad Curtis 2.0. Etc etc.

 

Empty reasoning followed by profound statements based on that empty reasoning. I've heard better arguments.

 

He's a good outfielder, that's about it. He's a good outfielder in a corner spot, which also inflates his value. He's a mediocre hitter and a mediocre base runner with good speed. He's nothing special, certainly isn't worth over 10 million a year. (Or 25 million last year, LOL)

 

I'm done with this one, obviously cannot get through to you, you must be having a bad day or something.

[yankees228]

You just posted it without any backing otherwise. Usually WAR goes with other stats as a support. You don't have the backing stats. Anyways, his WAR is inflated by his UZR, which is the best fielding stat available, but almost anyone will tell you, that it's not reliable. UZR is actually very flawed. Several players who are considered elite defenders of their positions end up with negative UZR sandwiched in between two seasons that were well above average. The corner outfield positions from what I've seen, are among the most effected, along with first base.

 

So where's your backing up? I've done mine. Where's yours? You haven't done one thing so far except throw out WAR, which you consider to be undefeatable, regardless of what kind of logical argument can be made. I can be an ass out of frustration too.

 

Brett Gardner's 2010 season

 

Offensive Production:

 

wOBA: .358 (league average: .321)

wRC+: 121 (league average: 100)

wRAA: 16.9 (league average: 0)

wRC: 82.3 (league average: 57.7)

Speed Score: 8.1 (second among all MLB players ... league average: 5.0)

Base Running Runs Above Average: 4.9 (tenth among all MLB players)

 

Defensive Production:

 

UZR/150: 45.7 (tops among all MLB players)

DRS: 16 (tied for third among all MLB outfielders and tops among left fielders)

[Emmz]

Brett Gardner's 2010 season

 

Offensive Production:

 

wOBA: .358 (league average: .321)

wRC+: 121 (league average: 100)

wRAA: 16.9 (league average: 0)

wRC: 82.3 (league average: 57.7)

Speed Score: 8.1 (second among all MLB players ... league average: 5.0)

Base Running Runs Above Average: 4.9 (tenth among all MLB players)

 

Defensive Production:

 

UZR/150: 45.7 (tops among all MLB players)

DRS: 16 (tied for third among all MLB outfielders and tops among left fielders)

 

ZZZZ, all stuff I knew, technically his OPS is above average too, yawn, all of this is stuff that's pretty much accounted for with non-sabermetric stats. It doesn't make him very good offensively. He gets on base well enough, he doesn't have the power to hit line drives that will keep pitchers from pitching right at him.

 

He won't last very long in the majors without any sort of power whatsoever. Your stats there actually support my argument that he's mediocre.

[yankees228]

ZZZZ, all stuff I knew, technically his OPS is above average too, yawn, all of this is stuff that's pretty much accounted for with non-sabermetric stats. It doesn't make him very good offensively. He gets on base well enough, he doesn't have the power to hit line drives that will keep pitchers from pitching right at him.

 

He won't last very long in the majors without any sort of power whatsoever. Your stats there actually support my argument that he's mediocre.

 

How do those stats support the argument that he was mediocre? They support the argument that in 2010 he was a good offensive player and an excellent defensive player. If you think these are the stats of a mediocre player than there is really no counter argument to be made other than just to tell you that you're wrong.

[Emmz]

Offensively, he's Chone Figgins, that's who I compare him to, except he gets caught stealing a lot.

[Emmz]

How do those stats support the argument that he was mediocre? They support the argument that in 2010 he was a good offensive player and an excellent defensive player. If you think these are the stats of a mediocre player than there is really no counter argument to be made other than just to tell you that you're wrong.

 

If you really think just being above the league average offensively is "good" then I guess he is good.

[Emmz]

Actually, Chone Figgins gets caught stealing lots too. Figgins was overrated as hell too, just because he got on base at a decent clip and was a solid hitter. Even after the good year he had with the Angels I never supported the Red Sox trying to get him. Perfect match for Gardner.

[yankees228]

If you really think just being above the league average offensively is "good" then I guess he is good.

 

Those numbers place him squarely above the league average. Couple that with his excellent defensive season, and Gardner's 2010 season was really good.

 

No matter where you look, the stats side with my argument, rather than yours. For someone who has a habit of admonishing people for not using advanced stats and instead using basic stats, I'm rather surprised where you fall in this argument.

[Emmz]

You're abusing the word squarely to make it seem like he's way above average, when he isn't.

 

These stats are pretty much just the same as regular stats, if you look, his wOBA is pretty close to his OBP, and I already gave you that he was a plus defender. His offense is not very good, any stat you use shows he's above average, but average means you're pretty awful. FanGraphs will have him as a huge win just because he's elite defensively at his position, and he's above the average offensively.

 

WAR is not accurate in all situations, and for someone who keeps track of my discussions with other members, you should know I've said this more than once. WAR certainly isn't accurate in saying that Gardner was worth 25 million last year, if you think it is, you're delusional.

[yankees228]

You're abusing the word squarely to make it seem like he's way above average, when he isn't.

 

These stats are pretty much just the same as regular stats, if you look, his wOBA is pretty close to his OBP, and I already gave you that he was a plus defender. His offense is not very good, any stat you use shows he's above average, but average means you're pretty awful. FanGraphs will have him as a huge win just because he's elite defensively at his position, and he's above the average offensively.

 

WAR is not accurate in all situations, and for someone who keeps track of my discussions with other members, you should know I've said this more than once. WAR certainly isn't accurate in saying that Gardner was worth 25 million last year, if you think it is, you're delusional.

 

Average is pretty awful? Well that's just flat out wrong.

 

And you're focusing way too much on the dollar values. It's just like that because players are routinely overpaid in free agency.

[yankees228]

Oh and you're essentially saying you're better at judging player performance than FanGraphs, which is funny.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gardner is a VASTLY underrated player. And if he moved to his natural position, he'd rate even higher. Since April, he's hitting .305/.381/.381 with 9 steals. Sounds like a guy we should shitcan.

[Emmz]

Oh and you're essentially saying you're better at judging player performance than FanGraphs' date=' which is funny.[/quote']

 

Cool straw man bro.

 

My argument is that WAR is not the end of all discussions, and that defense does not equal to more wins than offense. There's something wrong with WAR when a guy like Drew is worth less wins than a guy like Gardner. Drew is was worth less even though he was vastly superior offensively, and was a plus defensively. My point being, that defense does not equal to more wins than offense.

 

WAR is such a great stat! So good, that Nick Punto (Sick in the field, one of the best I've seen, and UZR agrees he's sick in the field) is worth 2 wins above replacement even when he's got a .600 OPS, and sub-300 wOBA, nor was he an everyday player. If that's not enough proof to show that WAR is weighted a little too much in UZR, and not enough in offense.

 

Yeah, WAR is so reliable dude, you're right, it's the end of all discussions.

[yankees228]

Cool straw man bro.

 

My argument is that WAR is not the end of all discussions, and that defense does not equal to more wins than offense. There's something wrong with WAR when a guy like Drew is worth less wins than a guy like Gardner. Drew is was worth less even though he was vastly superior offensively, and was a plus defensively. My point being, that defense does not equal to more wins than offense.

 

WAR is such a great stat! So good, that Nick Punto (Sick in the field, one of the best I've seen, and UZR agrees he's sick in the field) is worth 2 wins above replacement even when he's got a .600 OPS, and sub-300 wOBA, nor was he an everyday player. If that's not enough proof to show that WAR is weighted a little too much in UZR, and not enough in offense.

 

Yeah, WAR is so reliable dude, you're right, it's the end of all discussions.

 

It isn't a straw man because you're claiming your evaluations of Brett Gardner are more accurate than those of FanGraphs. I think the problem here stems from the fact that you're underselling the importance of defense. Games are won by run differential ... meaning that scoring runs and saving runs are of equal importance. When the Red Sox went in that direction last off-season, this point was made numerous times by the smartest people on this site, and done so very well.

[a700hitter]

Gardner is a VASTLY underrated player. And if he moved to his natural position' date=' he'd rate even higher. Since April, he's hitting .305/.381/.381 with 9 steals. Sounds like a guy we should shitcan.[/quote']Yankee fans are delusional about Gardner if you think he is anything more than a nice 4th OFer. I never said that he should be shitcanned. Teams need 4th OFers, but he is not vastly underrated. He is overrated by Yankee fans.

[Emmz]

It isn't a straw man because you're claiming your evaluations of Brett Gardner are more accurate than those of FanGraphs. I think the problem here stems from the fact that you're underselling the importance of defense. Games are won by run differential ... meaning that scoring runs and saving runs are of equal importance. When the Red Sox went in that direction last off-season' date=' this point was made numerous times by the smartest people on this site, and done so very well.[/quote']

 

1. Bolded: I did not evaluate him at all, I never claimed to have a system of value superior to theirs. You made that up. This is called a straw man, it's a logical fallacy.

 

2. It's not fact that I'm underselling defense, logical fallacy number two. Stats are not called facts for a reason, sabermetrics are not to be taken as fact. It's best to use some judgment, which you're not doing.

 

I don't use sabermetrics all the time, because they make certain players look less valuable than they actually are, while making others look more valuable. That is all I'm going to say, because we'll never come to a conclusion. You'll always think Gardner is worth 6 wins, I'll always think he's some dude who's good in the field that's going to be a lifetime .720 OPS hitter, and washed up in five years. I'll give him that he's a good outfielder, I'll give him that he's an okay bat, but there's lots of okay bats then.

 

I will also give you that his last year was a good offensive year, and that if he were to replicate that number for a few more years, he could get a nice contract. This year is looking more like two years ago, though.

[yankees228]

1. You claimed FanGraphs has valued him incorrectly, and that he should be valued lower ... which is tantamount to claiming that you can better judge his value than FanGraphs.

 

2. You said he was good defensively last year ... based on UZR/150 and DRS, the two most reliable defensive metrics, he was much better than that. I also think you're underselling the impact of defense on the game.

 

Anyway, as you said, we've reached an impasse. I think the stats side with me ... he had a good offensive season last year (which you now seem to have acknowledged) and an excellent defensive season. To me, that's a pretty damn good year, which is all I'm claiming.

[a700hitter]

1. You claimed FanGraphs has valued him incorrectly, and that he should be valued lower ... which is tantamount to claiming that you can better judge his value than FanGraphs.

 

2. You said he was good defensively last year ... based on UZR/150 and DRS, the two most reliable defensive metrics, he was much better than that. I also think you're underselling the impact of defense on the game.

 

Anyway, as you said, we've reached an impasse. I think the stats side with me ... he had a good offensive season last year (which you now seem to have acknowledged) and an excellent defensive season. To me, that's a pretty damn good year, which is all I'm claiming.

Unless he can steal 40-50 bases per year with a 75% + success ratio he'll be gone from the Yankees before 2014. That's how little value he has.