The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[a700hitter]

I like Werth better. I don't like Aramis Ramirez or Millwood. I like Ortiz better than Fielder, but only because he's cheaper; I don't think that a mediocre year (from Fielder's perspective) or a good year for Ortiz (in his mid-30s, no less) represents how good they actually are.

I was also mistaken about Dunn and Fielder's power - I swear my eyes said Fielder had a substantially higher ISO.

Also, do we need a first baseman/DH type with a long term contract? That would leave no room for a prospects like Anderson/Rizzo to advance in the organization.

[Dipre]

Also' date=' do we need a first baseman/DH type with a long term contract? That would leave no room for a prospects like Anderson/Rizzo to advance in the organization.[/quote']

 

That's essentially why i also like Dunn: Flexibility.

 

He can play 1B/DH and also fake it at LF/RF so his bat can always be in the lineup without having to be attached to one position.

[a700hitter]

Here's a short preliminary list of players that played for the Sox this season who I never again want to see in a Sox uni:

 

Eric Patterson

Kavin Cash

Robert Coello

Robert Manuel

Daniel Nava (sorry Doji)

[a700hitter]

Here's the Roster that I would like to see on opening day with one undecided spot:

 

Catchers: VMart and Tek

 

IF: Youk, Pedroia, Scutaro, Beltre, Lowrie

 

DH: Ortiz

 

OF: Drew, Ellsbury, Cameron, Werth/Crawford, Kalish

 

Starters: Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice K

 

Bullpen: Papelbon, Bard, Dubront, Downs, Feliciano, Atchinson, open spot

I'd make one change to the roster above. I'd replace Kalish with McDonald for the last OF spot. We need the extra RH bat, and Kalish should get regular ABs in the minors. So, in less than a day, and while doing my day job, I am one bullpen spot short of completing Theo's job for next season. If he screws up again next season, I can put in for early retirement and take his spot.

[SCM33]

That's essentially why i also like Dunn: Flexibility.

 

He can play 1B/DH and also fake it at LF/RF so his bat can always be in the lineup without having to be attached to one position.

 

I would love to have Dunn as well. Over Ortiz if thats what it comes down to. Defensive flexibility allowing multiple players rotating between LF/3B/1B and DH.

 

Could they do Crawford/Dunn/Beltre and Vmart all in this offseason?

[example1]

I would love to have Dunn as well. Over Ortiz if thats what it comes down to. Defensive flexibility allowing multiple players rotating between LF/3B/1B and DH.

 

Could they do Crawford/Dunn/Beltre and Vmart all in this offseason?

 

Probably not, but they might be able to do that package with Werth instead of Crawford. It might cost them $60m/year for the four of them. Obviously that would be a formidable lineup...

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Martinez

Youkilis

Dunn

Werth

Drew

Beltre

Scutaro/Lowrie

 

Drew and Scutaro would probably be gone the following season, opening holes for Kalish and Iglesias to join a solid veteran team in 2012 or 2013.

[BSN07]

I would love to have Dunn as well. Over Ortiz if thats what it comes down to. Defensive flexibility allowing multiple players rotating between LF/3B/1B and DH.

 

Could they do Crawford/Dunn/Beltre and Vmart all in this offseason?

 

I would have that preference too.

 

 

For all of them to be on board next season, someone is going to have to take a discount most likely fpr that to happen. 1 for sure. 2-3 maybe.

 

Crawford is going to take 15M a year to sign at least. While I see the others getting 12-15M per IMO. And that's not counting the possibility of the rogue GM who get's desperate and starts throwing $ around. And then there is always the Boras factor. He seems to rake over at least one GM per off season.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Not much just thought I would throw this out there.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100930&content_id=15253986&notebook_id=15282838&vkey=notebook_bos&c_id=bos&partnerId=rss_bos

[BSN07]

Not much just thought I would throw this out there.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100930&content_id=15253986&notebook_id=15282838&vkey=notebook_bos&c_id=bos&partnerId=rss_bos

 

He is still declining it though. This was always the back up option if Beltre's bat didn't come around this season. Boras figured with his D he would get 640 PA or so. If his bat stunk, pick up the 10M option. If he hit well, decline and hit the FA market looking for multi year deal.

[Palodios]

Here's a short preliminary list of players that played for the Sox this season who I never again want to see in a Sox uni:

 

Eric Patterson

Kavin Cash

Robert Coello

Robert Manuel

Daniel Nava (sorry Doji)

 

My additions

 

Scott Schoenweiss

Jeremy Hermida

Angel Sanchez

Boof Bonser

Hideki Okajima

Gustavo Molina

[Dojji]

I disagree on Oki. His chances of a bounceback year aren't bad. I wouldn't count on him as a setup man unless he can prove he can come back, but I think I'd like to see him get one more look in middle innings.

[alphilip77]

Hmmm...apparently the Pads are looking to trade Bell:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/09/padres-could-put-bell-back-on-trade-market.html

 

Even though he's 33, I'd like to trade for him and sign him to a 1yr deal with a team option for 2012. If Papelbon starts s***ing the bed again in 2011, we can have Bell step in. There's also the possibility of having him pitch the 8th in place of Bard once in a while so his arm doesn't fall off.

[Palodios]

The Padres have 1.1 million dollars committed to 2011. That's insane.

[Station 13]

Okajima is done. He really is. Lefties are smoking him. He is too expensive to be a LOOGY. Righties are taking him deep a lot. The fact is he's due for a raise over $3 million is enough to let the guy walk.

 

Richardson isn't the answer either at LOOGY. All he does is walk the guy he is supposed to contain.

 

get some arms like Putz, Capps, Benoir, Woods, etc.

 

Start preparing for Papelbon final year in Boston.

[a700hitter]

Okajima is done. He really is. Lefties are smoking him. He is too expensive to be a LOOGY. Righties are taking him deep a lot. The fact is he's due for a raise over $3 million is enough to let the guy walk.

 

Richardson isn't the answer either at LOOGY. All he does is walk the guy he is supposed to contain.

 

get some arms like Putz, Capps, Benoir, Woods, etc.

 

Start preparing for Papelbon final year in Boston.

Agreed. It's time for Oki to go.

[Palodios]

Okajima is done. The fact is he's due for a raise over $3 million is enough to let the guy walk.

 

Start preparing for Papelbon final year in Boston.

 

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

Okajima had some good seasons, but has a 4.63 ERA with 4 losses this season for 3 million and we want to let him go.

 

Papelbon had some good seasons, but has a 4.02 ERA with 6 losses this season for 9 million, and some people want to keep him.

[a700hitter]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

Okajima had some good seasons, but has a 4.63 ERA with 4 losses this season for 3 million and we want to let him go.

 

Papelbon had some good seasons, but has a 4.02 ERA with 6 losses this season for 9 million, and some people want to keep him.

One guy throws mid-90's. The league has adjusted to him. He has to make an adjustment-- improve his secondary pitches etc. The other guy has no possibilities.

[Station 13]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

Okajima had some good seasons, but has a 4.63 ERA with 4 losses this season for 3 million and we want to let him go.

 

Papelbon had some good seasons, but has a 4.02 ERA with 6 losses this season for 9 million, and some people want to keep him.

 

Okajima is toast. Just look at him. Injuries and ineffectiveness.

 

Papelbon is not what he used to be, but far from finished. He is our 2nd best reliever.

[a700hitter]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

Okajima had some good seasons, but has a 4.63 ERA with 4 losses this season for 3 million and the FO will let him go.

 

Papelbon had some good seasons, but has a 4.02 ERA with 6 losses this season for 9 million, and the FO will keep him.

I made the appropriate corrections.

[Palodios]

While I agree that the FO is not smart enough to drop Papelbon while they're ahead, how is he any different than Okajima? Ever since he lost his elite pitch-- the okie-dokie or whatever that was, between his skill set, and the training program they gave him, he hasn't regained quality, and based on how the pitching staff was handled this year, I don't see any significant improvement from Papelbon next year worth spending 11 million on him.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Look at Papelbon's last two years

 

09: 68 IP, 54 hits, 5 HR, 24 BB, 76 K

10: 65 IP, 55 hits, 7 HR, 26 BB, 73 K

 

Those numbers are almost literally the same, the difference? In 09 he had a 1.85 ERA and this year he had a 4.02 ERA. His peripherals are still good and he's still better than anyone we are going to be able to find.

 

Okajima's peripherals have been plummeting for a while now and it's really showing.

[Palodios]

Look at Papelbon's last two years

 

People can argue about the value of the win statistic all they'd like, but with closers nothing matters besides saves and blown saves. 8 BS is not worth 11 million a year, and that is no discussion, it is a fact.

[a700hitter]

While I agree that the FO is not smart enough to drop Papelbon while they're ahead' date=' how is he any different than Okajima? Ever since he lost his elite pitch-- the okie-dokie or whatever that was, between his skill set, and the training program they gave him, he hasn't regained quality, and based on how the pitching staff was handled this year, I don't see any significant improvement from Papelbon next year worth spending 11 million on him.[/quote']Okay, so you are in the FO is stupid camp. I'm with the FO on this.

[Palodios]

Okay' date=' so you are in the FO is stupid camp. I'm with the FO on this.[/quote']

 

The simple fact is that this FO has stopped doing the smart thing and has been holding onto declining stars that clearly aren't worth their contracts. Papelbon and Ortiz are popular and all, but are they worth 25 million of the 60 million available? Everyone seems to think that this team has an infinite amount of money to spend, but they are going to need to sacrifice something.

 

Ellsbury- 5 million

Papelbon-12 million

Ortiz- 12.5 million

Crawford/Werth-20

two or three elite bullpen guys-- 15 million

Vmart-13 million

Beltre 15 million

 

That's 90 million right there, and there is no way they'll spend that much. Quality doesn't come cheap-- something has to give.

 

2009 we started the year with a great bullpen, and three or four guys showed signs of significant drop-offs. The team ignored it at the time, and all of those guys ended up struggling this year. Do we really want the same mistake with Papelbon--who has blown four saves in the last two months? And spend 12 million dollars when there is a closer who actually IS elite on the market?

[a700hitter]

The simple fact is that this FO has stopped doing the smart thing and has been holding onto declining stars that clearly aren't worth their contracts. Papelbon and Ortiz are popular and all, but are they worth 25 million of the 60 million available? Everyone seems to think that this team has an infinite amount of money to spend, but they are going to need to sacrifice something.

 

Ellsbury- 5 million

Papelbon-12 million

Ortiz- 12.5 million

Crawford/Werth-20

two or three elite bullpen guys-- 15 million

Vmart-13 million

Beltre 15 million

 

That's 90 million right there, and there is no way they'll spend that much. Quality doesn't come cheap-- something has to give.

 

2009 we started the year with a great bullpen, and three or four guys showed signs of significant drop-offs. The team ignored it at the time, and all of those guys ended up struggling this year. Do we really want the same mistake with Papelbon--who has blown four saves in the last two months? And spend 12 million dollars when there is a closer who actually IS elite on the market?

It is interesting to note that while I have disagreed with the FO on several occasions, I have almost always attributed my disagreement to the fact that I as a fan have interests that do conflict with those on the business side of the decisions. I have never thought they were dumb. This is a different sort of criticism, but I give you credit for putting it on the line. You think keeping Papelbon and Ortiz for $25 million would be dumb. I disagree with you, but it is a valid opinion, and only time will tell who is right. Too many people who echo the same sort of opinion about Papelbon and Ortiz are afraid to openly disagree with the FO, so they assume that the FO will only keep these guys if they get a discount or there is some other rationalization. I am curious how many others would not keep Papelbon and Ortiz in 2011 for a total of $24 million? I am curious if it would still be dumb to you and others if the price tag would be $22 million or $20 million. At what price would you keep these guys?

[Dipre]

Neither Werth nor Crawford is gonna command a 20 mill salary IMO. 15 million probably gets you Soriano plus a lefty, but i think the Sox should also explore bringing Bill Hall back, since he was so productive this year. Also, you need to consider that the Sox could, if they deemed it necessary (and it certainly seems necessary) increase payroll for next season.

 

Dipre's ideal 25 man roster:

 

C: V-Mart, Tek.

 

IF: Youk, Pedey, Beltre, Scutaro, Lowrie.

 

OF: Drew, Werth, Cameron, Ellsbury.

 

Super-sub: Bill Hall.

 

DH: Ortiz/Dunn.

 

SP: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Beckett, Dice-K.

 

RP: Papelbon, Bard, Soriano, Scott Downs, Okajima (now a Loogy), Atchison, JJ Putz, Dustin Richardson.

 

 

*Ideal is bolded because it's very diffuclt that happens.

[Palodios]

It is interesting to note that while I have disagreed with the FO on several occasions' date=' I have almost always attributed my disagreement to the fact that I as a fan have interests that do conflict with those on the business side of the decisions. I have never thought they were dumb. This is a different sort of criticism, but I give you credit for putting it on the line. You think keeping Papelbon and Ortiz for $25 million would be dumb. I disagree with you, but it is a valid opinion, and only time will tell who is right. Too many people who echo the same sort of opinion about Papelbon and Ortiz are afraid to openly disagree with the FO, so they assume that the FO will only keep these guys if they get a discount or there is some other rationalization. I am curious how many others would not keep Papelbon and Ortiz in 2011 for a total of $24 million? I am curious if it would still be dumb to you and others if the price tag would be $22 million or $20 million. At what price would you keep these guys?[/quote']

 

Well, unfortunately, on the business end of things, keeping Papelbon and Ortiz is not necessarily a dumb thing to do because those two guys keep fans in the stadium. But for the interest of the team, I don't think they're worth what they want. It also wouldn't surprise me if Papelbon had a 2.00 ERA next year, and Ortiz had 35 bombs, but the thing that I want to completely underline is that the reason why they are not worth 25 million is because of the risk involved. What if Ortiz slumps at the beginning of the season? What if he continues to hit like a platoon player and he becomes a clubhouse problem again? What if Papelbon blows 2 saves per month next year, and he becomes a clubhouse problem when they replace him with Bard?

 

I think there are a lot of players on this team with big contracts who can play up to expectations. The questions you need to ask yourself are-- Will Papelbon and Ortiz ever truly exceed our expectations? Will Ortiz ever hit 40+ home runs again, and will Papelbon ever give Rivera a run for his money? For me to give them 12 and 12, with the huge risk involved here-- the answer to that question cannot be a resounding no. Papelbon is worth 6. Ortiz is worth 8. That is market value for their skills.

 

 

Also, Dipre-- did you put in an extra bullpen guy in there?

[Dipre]

I forgot to outline that Richardson was insurance in the minors and put a * on his name.

[a700hitter]

For me to give them 12 and 12' date=' with the huge risk involved here-- the answer to that question cannot be a resounding [b']no[/b]. Papelbon is worth 6. Ortiz is worth 8. That is market value for their skills.

 

 

Also, Dipre-- did you put in an extra bullpen guy in there?

What is 30 HRs and 100 RBI worth on the open market. That is what Ortiz has averaged over the past 2 seasons despite a terrible first half in 2009. Are there any guys that pencil in those numbers that make only $8 million? Is Fielder worth twice that amount next season?

[Palodios]

The price for non-fielding hitters with big performance risks is surprisingly low. Look at Guerrero-- he was around the 30 HR 100 RBI range for a decade, and one bad season and he struggled to get a 5.5 million dollar contract. Matsui came off a year with 28 HR and 90 RBI in 2009 to make 6 million this year. Ortiz is a better hitter than those guys, but not enough to warrant twice their salary. He's 35 years old-- with questions about his age-- steroid allegations, platoon numbers, early season slumps and his size are all problems. Plus, he's worthless to NL teams.

 

Not to mention Adam Dunn, who atleast played a position, was 28 years old with 40/100 numbers, and going into his last contract and still only got 2/20.