Can we talk about Dice-k?

[Palodios]

At the beginning of the season, my faith in Dice-k was very strong. I thought that he was a chemistry problem on the team, but still an incredibly good pitcher. 2008 he comes in 4th for Cy Young, with a very low ERA. The WBC messed him up last year, and it went downhill, but after he came back in the fall, he pitched incredibly well. Fans were giving it to him hard-- "he only goes 5 innings" (he was averaging about 6) or "he walks too many" (true, but a wins a win). I have never seen any pitcher better at stranding hitters on the bases.

 

This season, he's been inconsistently dominant. He's pitched two gems so far. But besides that, he's been great besides a few innings. The majority of his runs have happened in big inning situations. He usually gives up a lot of walks, but tonite he gave up none and threw like 80% strikes.

 

Dice-k is such an incredible wildcard at this point. Will he start dominating, or will he fail miserably?

[TedWilliams101]

He gave up 10 hits tonight and 3 runs. Yes, it's an improvement, but he still is allowing WAY to many baserunners. When he can put a couple good games together with a Whip 1.0 or under, I'll be more optimistic.

 

I don't buy the "it's one bad inning" thing either. This has been his problem since day one, it's nothing new. Anyways, just as you said "a win's a win", giving up runs is giving up runs, it doesn't matter if it's in one inning or 5.

[Palodios]

Not arguing with that point at all, high runs scored means its a bad start. But if he's dominating for most of the game then falls apart, it atleast shows he has the potential to dominate.

[SCM33]

He gave up 10 hits tonight and 3 runs. Yes, it's an improvement, but he still is allowing WAY to many baserunners. When he can put a couple good games together with a Whip 1.0 or under, I'll be more optimistic.

 

I don't buy the "it's one bad inning" thing either. This has been his problem since day one, it's nothing new. Anyways, just as you said "a win's a win", giving up runs is giving up runs, it doesn't matter if it's in one inning or 5.

 

While I want to agree with you, sometimes I walk away from one of his starts thinking, "how the f*** did that happen?". I cant stand watching him.....Id rather watch paint dry, but minus 2 bad starts this season, his ERA would be very good, and he would be in the 5-2, 6-2, 7-1 win/loss range.

 

He is a strange case where WHIP does not seem to affect his results.

[msubulldogs21]

Dice-k is such an incredible wildcard at this point. Will he start dominating' date=' or will he fail miserably?[/quote']

 

I think he is what he is at this point - we're probably going to continue to see solid starts and some stink bombs mixed in from time to time. Just have to take the good with the bad.

[jacksonianmarch]

WHIP effects everyone eventually. He and Lackey are just lucky they were playing the A's. Most any other team hangs a 7 on those guys

[Dipre]

WHIP effects everyone eventually. He and Lackey are just lucky they were playing the A's. Most any other team hangs a 7 on those guys

 

Dice-K has a 1.39 WHIP this year, and Andy Pettite has a career 1.36 WHIP, and he enjoyed three consecutive seasons of below league average ERA with a WHIP in the 1.40 range. Some guys (like him and Wakefield, who has a career 1.35 WHIP and a bunch of years of 1.4-1.5 WHIP with good results) can overcome the issue of allowing lots of baserunners by avoiding the "big inning", something Matsuzaka did in 2008 but has thus far been unable to in 2010. Lackey's current WHIP is an aberration, as he has a career 1.32 mark, but is coming of four consecutive seasons with a WHIP under 1.3. It'll correct itself soon enough.

[BoSox21]

I know this will probably result in the tired old "well considering what he's paid, we should expect more" argument but in our healthy rotation, Dice-K is the 5th starter and doesn't even sniff the postseason. I really don't mind Dice-K as a 5th starter.

[Dojji]

5-2, 4.59 ERA. Consistently sitting 93-94 and touching 96.

 

Coming right along. He's got his fastball back, he's logging innings again, he's finessing his way out of trouble again, and he's beginning to bear a slight scent of consistency. He even looks a little more confident out there.

 

He's gonna get rolling as the days get longer and will be our #3 by August.

[Dipre]

5-2, 4.59 ERA. Consistently sitting 93-94 and touching 96.

 

Coming right along.

 

He's gonna get rolling as the days get longer and will be our #3 by August.

 

Lol no.

 

I doubt Bucholz loosens his grip on the number three spot in the rotation. Dice-K's still inconsistent, so hold your horses there, Nostra-Doiji.

[Palodios]

So Daisuke's line tonite- 8.0 IP, 4H, 0 R, 2 BB. No one made it past 3rd base against him.

 

Its his second game with 8+ IP of 2010, and he has only had one other since 2007. He has given up 3 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. By throwing more fastballs, his control is just so much better, and it looks like he will be able to lower his walks and increase his IP.

 

He's pitching pretty well right now, that it makes me wonder if its too good to be true. I mentioned on the game thread that I saw Ortiz smack him in the dugout, so I'm expecting some clubhouse issues soon.

[Palodios]

Lol no.

 

I doubt Bucholz loosens his grip on the number three spot in the rotation. Dice-K's still inconsistent, so hold your horses there, Nostra-Doiji.

 

If Buchholz is 3, Lester is 1... then who is 2?

[Dipre]

If Buchholz is 3' date=' Lester is 1... then who is 2?[/quote']

 

Our Texas right-hander currently on the DL. We're talking on a "By August" scenario.

[Dojji]

Hmm.

 

Lester

Buchholz

Daisuke

Lackey

Wakefield

 

Until Beckett comes back strong from the DL, you could make a case for either Lackey or Daisuke as the #3 right now.

[Dipre]

Hmm.

 

Lester

Buchholz

Daisuke

Lackey

Wakefield

 

Until Beckett comes back strong from the DL, you could make a case for either Lackey or Daisuke as the #3 right now.

 

You said "By August". By August, Beckett should be back, and manning the #2 spot in the rotation. After all, we are talking hypotheticals. There's a better chance of Beckett coming back and being Beckett than Dice-K continuing a run like this.

[Dojji]

Our Texas right-hander currently on the DL. We're talking on a "By August" scenario.

 

He's not the #2 in our rotation when he isn't even in the rotation ATM.

 

Not to mention that he wasn't lighting the world on fire before he went down. He gets a healthy benefit of the doubt for his own struggles this year since he may have been pitching hurt (again...) and because of his long track record of decent success, but I think Buchholz and Lester are both already past him, at least for this year, and Daisuke is closing fast -- if he keeps eating 6-7+ innings a game it's going to be a debate.

[Dipre]

He's not the #2 in our rotation when he isn't even in the rotation ATM.

 

Not to mention that he wasn't lighting the world on fire before he went down. He gets a healthy benefit of the doubt for his own struggles this year since he may have been pitching hurt (again...) and because of his long track record of decent success, but I think Buchholz and Lester are both already past him, at least for this year, and Daisuke is closing fast -- if he keeps eating 6-7+ innings a game it's going to be a debate.

 

We're not talking right now, but August, as you suggested.

 

When Beckett gets back, he'll be above Dice-K on the depth chart. Doubt said development at your own risk. Dice-K's a powder keg. Don't let your sympathy for the guy blind you.

[Palodios]

You said "By August". By August' date=' Beckett should be back, and manning the #2 spot in the rotation. After all, we are talking hypotheticals. There's a better chance of Beckett coming back and being Beckett than Dice-K continuing a run like this.[/quote']

 

Dice-k's first two starts were crummy, but since then, he's been extremely good.

 

His stats in the last six starts-- 3.23 ERA. 6.5 IP per start. Beckett won't come back and dominate to that extent, it will take him time to build up his strength, and Dice-k has the potential to keep it going.

[Dojji]

The reason I made this 'bold' prediction is that he's startiing to look like the Daisuke of the first half of 2007. I think he may be finally past the well-documented shoulder damage that played merry hell with his stuff, command and velocity.

 

In 2008 he was sitting 91. In 2009 before he went on the DL he was having trouble breaking 90. When he did display half-decent velocity he couldn't sustain it and/or did so at the expense of command.

 

Now he's sitting a steady 93 and has for the last several starts and that allows him to play off his vaunted breaking stuff better -- and it's showing in the contact rates. His command is also improved over his last few starts. By no means does he have elite command, but still, it's improved.

 

Overall what we've seen over the last several starts is a lot closer to the Daisuke the foreign scouts watched in Japan. I think he's finally healthy and in position to win us all back -- provided he doesn't mess up his shoulder again.

[Dipre]

Dice-k's first two starts were crummy, but since then, he's been extremely good.

 

His stats in the last six starts-- 3.23 ERA. 6.5 IP per start. Beckett won't come back and dominate to that extent, it will take him time to build up his strength, and Dice-k has the potential to keep it going.

 

Color me skeptical.

 

He still puts way too many runners on base. And it's easy to look this good playing against Cleveland. I'm one of the big positivity guys on the board, but one has to be realistic. Dice-K is a low 4 ERA guy with his lack of control and low K tendencies. Beckett is a superior pitcher. In fact, Beckett, Lester, and Bucholz all have better stuff and control. Don't know how you can argue that.

[Palodios]

Color me skeptical.

 

He still puts way too many runners on base. And it's easy to look this good playing against Cleveland. I'm one of the big positivity guys on the board, but one has to be realistic. Dice-K is a low 4 ERA guy with his lack of control and low K tendencies. Beckett is a superior pitcher. In fact, Beckett, Lester, and Bucholz all have better stuff and control. Don't know how you can argue that.

 

I'm not arguing with Dice-k's uncanny ability to go from being good to being suck. I'm skeptical of Beckett, who has the highest ERA of any pitcher with 40+ innings this season. Calling him a #2 right now is a longshot at best.

[Dojji]

I'm not arguing with Dice-k's uncanny ability to go from being good to being suck. I'm skeptical of Beckett' date=' who has the highest ERA of any pitcher with 40+ innings this season. Calling him a #2 right now is a longshot at best.[/quote']

 

Beckett's bounced back from injury and assorted struggles in the past. I have no reason to doubt he'll do so this year.

 

Beckett's talent is not a concern. It's his back I'm worried more about, it's proven a major impediment to him each of the last few years and I just can't imagine that getting better over the life of his next contract

[Dipre]

They found a way to fix the blisters, so maybe they'll find a way to fix his back, too. At least it's not arm trouble.

[Dojji]

MHO, arm trouble is preferable to back trouble. With arm trouble, the problem is usually a major ligament, worst case scenario for the most part is you have some surgery and have a puncher's chance to bounce back. With the back, there's only so much a surgeon can do. All those little bones each of which have a set of ligaments, any of which could be the problem -- the problem is also far more likely to be the bone itself. You can "solve" a major problem with surgery but even if you do it can come back to haunt you anytime, seemingly at random. As long as you're pitching professionally, the factors of stress and repetition that caused the damage are likely still going to be there.

[Dipre]

But it depends on the extent of the damage and the damaged area.

[Dojji]

True, but if he's on the DL, it isn't just something you can stretch and pop and be fine.

[TheMino007]

Another good start from Dice-K, I can live with this every other good start stuff b/c I honestly expected nothing out of him this year. His fastball seems to have more zip on it this year, I've seen it get up there to 95 and that cutter he throws is effective b/c hitters don't seem to square it up. Who knows, for every encouraging thing he does, he does stupid stuff which makes you lose all faith in him again next start.

[jacksonianmarch]

DiceK should dominate that team. Dice lives off his ability to get batters to chase. He's always toying with the zone and playing with hitter's heads. When you couple a young team's overzealousness with DiceK's flair for being completely unpredictable, it is usually a good combo for the sox. Dice struggles with the more patient teams cause they force him to come into the zone, where he either walks the bases full or gives up big hits. Plus, last night was one of those 25% nights. Mike Mussina said it best. 25% of the time, everything is working and nobody hits you. 25% of the time, nothing is working and you are awful. It's the other 50% of the time that defines what kind of pitcher you will become.

[Dipre]

DiceK should dominate that team. Dice lives off his ability to get batters to chase. He's always toying with the zone and playing with hitter's heads. When you couple a young team's overzealousness with DiceK's flair for being completely unpredictable' date=' it is usually a good combo for the sox. Dice struggles with the more patient teams cause they force him to come into the zone, where he either walks the bases full or gives up big hits. Plus, last night was one of those 25% nights. Mike Mussina said it best. 25% of the time, everything is working and nobody hits you. 25% of the time, nothing is working and you are awful. It's the other 50% of the time that defines what kind of pitcher you will become.[/quote']

 

....Or it could be (and probably is) a stuff issue, because if i recall correctly, one of the most impatient teams in MLB (Kansas) worked Dice-K for 8 (!) BB a couple starts back. When he has the good stuff and feels confident, he attacks the zone and outings like the one in Philly, Oakland or Toronto happen, when he doesn't have his good stuff and starts nibbling, then NYY, Baltimore, and Kansas City happen.

[Palodios]

DiceK should dominate that team. Dice lives off his ability to get batters to chase. He's always toying with the zone and playing with hitter's heads. When you couple a young team's overzealousness with DiceK's flair for being completely unpredictable' date=' it is usually a good combo for the sox. Dice struggles with the more patient teams cause they force him to come into the zone, where he either walks the bases full or gives up big hits. Plus, last night was one of those 25% nights. Mike Mussina said it best. 25% of the time, everything is working and nobody hits you. 25% of the time, nothing is working and you are awful. It's the other 50% of the time that defines what kind of pitcher you will become.[/quote']

 

Normally, the opposing team is relevant to how a pitcher does, but I think 90% of his success/ failures has been because of how he's pitched. Sure,maybe the Yankees took advantage of him, because they are such a great hitting team, but if you look at the teams he's struggled against, and done well against, you can't say there is much of a pattern.

 

The first two games of the season, he was finding his stuff much in the way Lester/Beckett do at the beginning of the season, had one bad inning in each, and he had problems adjusting to VMart. The game against Kansas City was the start after his no-hit bid, and he claimed to be sore-- which considering his pitch count that start is understandable. Other than that, he's been solid.