Red Sox Spring Training thread

[VA Sox Fan]

Interesting quote from Mr. Jason Bay when asked about the Red Sox offense:

 

 

 

Love the use of the word "laughable".

 

Great quote. Gonna miss JBay. He'll do well in NY.

[msubulldogs21]

Well here's my issue with the whole "They ain't gonna hit!!!111!!" argument.

 

They hit last year. Top-5 offense right?

 

They lost Jason Bay's 36 HR's and 119 RBI's, but you also substract Nick Green and Jason Varitek from the everyday lineup.

 

So you add Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and V-Mart for a full season. Even if Beltre were to absolutely suck (doubtful since both his balls are in place), in the grand scheme of things, (if using common sense instead of bias or sheer stupidity) this is actually a tougher lineup which logically can't score less than 30-35 runs than last year's team unless a 2006-type disaster happens.

 

I think a lot of people take a look at the lineup, don't see a 40+ home run guy, and immediately hit the panic button.

 

Obviously the offense isn't going to lead the league in homers, but I still think we'll put up runs pretty effectively.

[Dipre]

I think a lot of people take a look at the lineup, don't see a 40+ home run guy, and immediately hit the panic button.

 

Obviously the offense isn't going to lead the league in homers, but I still think we'll put up runs pretty effectively.

 

Top 10 offenses of 2009:

 

Yankees

Angels

Red Sox

Phillies

Twins

Rockies

Rays

Blue Jays

Brewers

Rangers

 

I'd like to see someone give me a logical explanation of why the Sox won't be a top-5 AL offense.

 

The Angels downgraded, the Twins massively overperformed with RISP, and that lineup's gonna struggle against quality lefty pitching. From a logical standpoint, i see the Sox being the third best offense, behind (obviously) the Yankees and Rays, while scoring right around 835 runs.

[BoSox21]

The run prevention factor has to be considered too though. Too many people look simply at runs scored when run differential is where people should really be looking.

[das11209]

Well here's my issue with the whole "They ain't gonna hit!!!111!!" argument.

 

They hit last year. Top-5 offense right?

 

.

 

I think these are the question with offense from last year.:

 

1. Can they hit against good pitching?

2. Can they hit on road?

3. Will they have black holes ( 6-9 in first half last year) in lineup?

4. Will they be streaky ( Ortiz, Bay) or consistent throughout the season.

 

If all the answers are positive - they have the potential to be very good offense.

[italstallianion]

The run prevention factor has to be considered too though. Too many people look simply at runs scored when run differential is where people should really be looking.

 

 

It's also worth noting that "run prevention" simply isn't only the fact that our rotation is better, but is in the fact that our defense is MUCH better. Scutaro/Beltre instead of Lugo/Green/Lowell. While we'll probably score less runs, we'll give up much less runs. This principle isn't as obvious in baseball, but in cricket, coaches always say that preventing them from scoring runs is just as good as scoring those runs yourself.

[Dojji]

Actually Green wasn't a half bad defender. Probably better than Scutaro.

 

*withers under the mass basilisk stare of the forum*

 

Seriously, go look it up for yourself. Green was +8.3 UZR/150 at SS, which is substantially above average. Scutaro was about neutral (+1.0). There's a reason I wanted this guy reupped as a utility man.

[BoSox21]

Does UZR factor in the fact that Scutaro played on a presumably faster SkyDome artificial turf? I also think UZR plays less of a factor here considering Beltre has a much better range than Lowell.

[Dojji]

UZR/150 wasn't kind to Scutaro before he was a blue Jay either. The fact is that the guy is not a particularly good defender at SS. He's steady, he's consistent, and he never sucks. He's a superlative utility man, but as a starting SS he's just not good. Hopefully steadily average play is enough, but I think we all have a gut feeling that Scutaro may be a problem this year.

 

I would not be surprised if we needed to make another adjustment at shortstop before Scutaro's contract expires.

[BoSox21]

Fine, but do we really need anything more than "steady average play" from a guy who's playing between two excellent defenders and who's slotted to be the #9 hitter? At the very least, he'll be better than Nick Green's .303 OBP and .669 OPS while being a solid defender and air-mailing far fewer balls into the 10th row behind the dugout.

[Dojji]

I just said I hoped we didn't need more than steady average play. Scutaro will at least not embarrass us, and that's a plus considering our recent history at SS, but I think if Lowrie or Iglesias prove they're ready to go, Scutaro probably won't be standing in their way.

 

On the other hand, it doesn't do to be delusional about the kind of improvement Scutaro actually represents. Nick Green had more positives than negatives, especially on defense, and actually worked out better than you'd reasonably expect him to. Scutaro isn't so much an upgrade as a tradeoff with a slightly different skillset. Where Scutaro gets his money is consistency. Unlike shortstops past, we have a very fair idea what we'll be getting from this guy and it's... ehh.. good enough.

[BoSox21]

Well let's be honest here, for Nick Green to have been better than we reasonably expected him to, all he had to do was not s*** his uniform during the game. The bar was set incredibly low for him and while he had his moments, for the most part it was a joke having him at SS. When Ortiz/Bay were slumping, that was a black hole in the 9-hole that we just couldn't afford. So when you say Scutaro will earn his money being consistent, to me that should be considered a lot more than just an afterthought.

[riverside sluggers]

Its not a trade off. Green was only good offensively in April and May. From June to September, he batted .233, .143 and .189 (.167 in 2nd half). September he just got 6 ABs

 

They made the trade for A-Gon because not only had Green's offense slipped, but his defense was also. He showed why to not give bench players too much ABs

 

Scutaro from June to September batted .229, .355, .274, .211 (.272 in 2nd half). He was shut down in September because of his ankle

[Dipre]

I think these are the question with offense from last year.:

 

1. Can they hit against good pitching? Who hits good pitching consistently?

 

2. Can they hit on road? V-Mart, Scutaro, Beltre and Cameron all have great road performance statistics. The off-season additions were made to address exactly that point.

 

3. Will they have black holes ( 6-9 in first half last year) in lineup? Doesn't seem like it, specially if they keep Lowell as insurance.

4. Will they be streaky ( Ortiz, Bay) or consistent throughout the season. No black holes in the lineup. So the streakiness potential is greatly reduced.

If all the answers are positive - they have the potential to be very good offense.

 

They seem positive from my perspective.

[Dipre]

Also i don't see how anyone can take Green's defensive sample size seriously. He played a little more than half a season of defense at SS. Small sample sizes greatly reduce the usefulness of UZR. This has been discussed to the point of exhaustion.

[riverside sluggers]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100311&content_id=8761570&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

Jason Bay doesn't get why so many people are worried about the Sox's offense this season.

[Dipre]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100311&content_id=8761570&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

Jason Bay doesn't get why so many people are worried about the Sox's offense this season.

 

I posted that quote in this thread already.

[italstallianion]

I think that our offense will be our weak point, but that our pitching got better and that our defense got much better to the point that it should more than compensate for our decline in offense. To be perfectly honest, I'm more worried about our bullpen than our offense.

[riverside sluggers]

Oops sorry about that, my bad

[Dipre]

I think that our offense will be our weak point' date=' but that our pitching got better and that our defense got much better to the point that it should more than compensate for our decline in offense. To be perfectly honest, I'm more worried about our bullpen than our offense.[/quote']

 

I still don't get the "offense as a weak point" thing. Name five teams in the Majors that have a better offense on paper than the Sox.

[italstallianion]

I still don't get the "offense as a weak point" thing. Name five teams in the Majors that have a better offense on paper than the Sox.

 

I'd go (in no order)

 

Yankees

Rays

Rangers

Phillies

 

then I'd put the Red Sox in a tie with a team like the Twins.

[riverside sluggers]

Id say the only question I have about the lineup is Ortiz. Its only spring training but he's put up an ugly 2 for 17 line. The 1 HR he had was against college pitching. Theyll probably give him a 2 month grace period. If its the same as last year, a trade or FA signing will happen. Speaking of that, Im surprised that Dye is still out there

 

And no Dojii, Reddick is not the answer to be the DH

[riverside sluggers]

I'd go (in no order)

 

Yankees

Rays

Rangers

Phillies

 

then I'd put the Red Sox in a tie with a team like the Twins.

 

If the Red Sox are tied for the 5th best offensive team in baseball... then its a good thing to say the offense is the weak point, huh?

[Dipre]

I'd go (in no order)

 

Yankees

Rays

Rangers

Phillies

 

then I'd put the Red Sox in a tie with a team like the Twins.

 

Think again with the Rangers. And the Twins massively overperformed with RISP last year. Not to mention that lineup will struggle against lefty pitching. Not to mention the Sox scored more runs last year than both those teams, and the Rangers, while they added Vlad Guerrero, lost Marlon Byrd. They were the 10th-ranked offense in the Majors last year, so how can they be better than a Sox team that scored 88 more runs than them?

[Dipre]

Id say the only question I have about the lineup is Ortiz. Its only spring training but he's put up an ugly 2 for 17 line. The 1 HR he had was against college pitching. Theyll probably give him a 2 month grace period. If its the same as last year, a trade or FA signing will happen. Speaking of that, Im surprised that Dye is still out there

 

And no Dojii, Reddick is not the answer to be the DH

 

Excellent.

[italstallianion]

Think again with the Rangers. And the Twins massively overperformed with RISP last year. Not to mention that lineup will struggle against lefty pitching. Not to mention the Sox scored more runs last year than both those teams' date=' and the Rangers, while they added Vlad Guerrero, lost Marlon Byrd. They were the 10th-ranked offense in the Majors last year, so how can they be better than a Sox team that scored 88 more runs than them?[/quote']

 

 

Then where would you rank the Red Sox offense this year? Not the Red Sox team, but the Red Sox offense.

[Dojji]

I'm not who you'd asked, but I'd rank them between second and fifth.

[Dipre]

Then where would you rank the Red Sox offense this year? Not the Red Sox team' date=' but the Red Sox offense.[/quote']

 

Fourth.

 

Yankees, Philles and Rays as one, two, three. Coupled with a league-best defense and quite possibly pitching, the Sox might just be the most complete team in the Majors.

[Dipre]

Jason Bay on the Lackey signing, Red Sox pitching staff:

 

“You look at it now and it’s genius,” Bay said. “Look at that pitching staff and it’s ridiculous. But at the time it didn’t look like there was a need. But it was a great move.

 

“It surprised me because you hear all the stuff that goes on and his name wasn’t connected with the Red Sox and then all of a sudden, boom, done. Usually people get wind of things like that. They’re good at doing their own thing, but of all the teams he was rumored to go to, then it was the Red Sox.”

 

 

I like Jason Bay, he is a smart man.

[riverside sluggers]

In that article, it points out that Sox fans were booing him at the Sox/Mets ST game. Wtf? He's not an arrogant prick. Not the type of player Id boo, he left and got paid more money than the Sox were willing to go to. Such is life in sports. Rare to have players give teams a home discount.