Should Offensive Regression Be Expected Next Year?

[Imperial59]

That's what I saw a lot of people saying when we replaced Bay with Cameron. But let's take a look at some of the big picture.

 

Catcher - This is by far the biggest offensive upgrade that the Red Sox will have going for them next year. Last year, Varitek started 109 games in which he hit an ugly .209/.313/.390 (80 OPS+). Next year, we can probably count on Victor Martinez for 100+ starts behind the dish. Victor Martinez had a rather typical year offensively last year and he hit .303/.381/.480 (127 OPS+) in 155 games between Cleveland and Boston. That's a startling gain of 47 points of OPS+ over about 100 games.

 

Shortstop - Before we acquired Gonzalez (44 games) we had a plethora of offensively challenged shorstops. Lugo hit a surprising .284/.352/.367 (86 OPS+), Green hit a sad .236/.303/.366 (71 OPS+) and Lowrie hit an inept .147/.211/.265 (21 OPS+). Overall, Red Sox shortstops hit a measly .245/.307/.375 which is probably good for about a OPS+ of 75. That kind of production will be replaced with Scutaro who owns a career 92 OPS+. He's likely to provide something like a 15 point boost in OPS+ over 145 games or so.

 

Third Base - We replaced Lowell, a .290/.337/.474 (106 OPS+) hitter over 119 games with Adrian Beltre, a career .270/.325/.453 (105 OPS+) hitter at third base. We don't really gain or lose much offense between the two. However, Lowell only played 107 games at third base. We had Kotsay (.257/.291/.324, 58 OPS+), Nick Green .236/.303/.366 (71 OPS+), Jeff Bailey .208/.330/.416 (90 OPS+) and Casey Kotchman .218/.284/.287 (48 OPS+) playing in the field for most of those games. So we can probably expect a minor boost to our offense next year.

 

Left Field - We replaced Bay, a .267/.384/.537 (134 OPS+) hitter with Cameron, a .250/.342/.452 (111 OPS+) hitter. That should account for something like a loss of 20 points in OPS+ over about 150 games.

 

So what do you think? Will our offense regress next year?

[BSN07]

I expect the offense to be more consistent. Not as many peaks an valley's.

[Dipre]

I expect the offense to be more consistent. Not as many peaks an valley's.

 

I was just about to post this.

 

Both Bay and Papi disappeared during large portions of the 2009 season.

[Dojji]

I don't see a big change. A slight downtick, little more than the standard deviation. May go the other way if Big Papi has a contract-year push.

 

I'd like to hope some of our young players like Reddick, Kalish, Wagner and Anderson can come through a bit towards the middle of the season. Reddick in particular could be a huge factor in erasing any regression, if he can get on form.

 

Any chance Jorge Jimenez gets returned to us? I'd really like to have the depth he represents at third base. I don't like the idea of being 2 inconveniently timed minor injuries (one to Youk, one to another CIF) away from being screwed.

[Keeper]

The top of the lineup is worse without Bay, but the bottom of the lineup is much better now. No more easy outs.

[Dipre]

The top of the lineup is worse without Bay' date=' but the bottom of the lineup is much better now. [b']No more easy outs.[/b]

 

This.

 

I said it in another thread.

 

Last year's lineup had two black holes. One in SS, one in C. No more.

[Dojji]

Well, define "easy out." We'll have Beltre as a very low OBP hitter, but when he's not making outs left right and center, he'll hit fairly productively. And Scutaro is also not known for his home run swing, but he makes pitchers work when he's up there.

 

certainly no one on the magnitude of 2009 Jason Varitek will get regular at bats next year. If Tek himself does, it won't be hard to cut him.

[Dipre]

Well' date=' define "easy out." We'll have Beltre as a very low OBP hitter, but when he's not making outs left right and center, he'll hit fairly productively.[/quote']

 

Nick Green and Jason Varitek.

 

Low OBP, no power, lots of K's.

 

With a bit of luck he could sustain a respectable OBP riding a high BA wave.

[Dojji]

With a bit of luck with balls in play, he could work it all the way up to a whopping .330.

 

Not that the guy he was replacing was exactly Dave Magadan though, so it's all good I guess. Speaking of Dave, might be interesting to see what he can do with Beltre. It would seem like Magadan is a past master of exactly the lessons Beltre needs to learn.

[Dipre]

It might get up to a whopping .330.

Not that the guy he was replacing was exactly Dave Magadan though, so it's all good I guess.

 

*Sigh*

 

Lifetime .325 with a 270 BA.

 

Let's say, for the sake of argument, he hits .290, and matches his 2008 BB mark of 50. That's a .350 OBP right there.

[Dojji]

If you leave out 2004 (and I think you have to) that 2008 mark represents his career high. 35-45 walks is a more reasonable expectation. And a .290 average is a bit optimistic, even with park factors figured in. Still, I can't rule it out I guess.

[Dipre]

If you leave out 2004 (and I think you have to) that 2008 mark represents his career high. 35-45 walks is a more reasonable expectation. And a .290 average is a bit optimistic' date=' even with park factors figured in. Still, I can't rule it out I guess.[/quote']

 

That's why it's hypothetical.

 

Surpassing Lowell's .338 mark in 2008 would be difficult, but not impossible.

[Spudboy]

I expect the offense to be more consistent. Not as many peaks an valley's.

 

Why?

 

I was just about to post this.

 

Both Bay and Papi disappeared during large portions of the 2009 season.

 

For that matter, Youk and Pedroia had significant slumps as well.

 

Who's to say that any player on any team won't or can't get cold at anytime?

 

Are the Sox new players somehow more "Slump Resistant"?

[Dojji]

Why?

 

Because the lineup should be more robust. With a bit of luck we won't be carrying players at the bottom of the lineup who are there only because they're warm bodies who play a position on the field.

 

 

 

For that matter, Youk and Pedroia had significant slumps as well.

 

Who's to say that any player on any team won't or can't get cold at anytime?

 

Are the Sox new players somehow more "Slump Resistant"?

 

If you have 9 productive hitters instead of 7 or 8, you're more likely to have someone step up and get hot when someone else is slumping.

[Dipre]

For that matter, Youk and Pedroia had significant slumps as well.

 

Who's to say that any player on any team won't or can't get cold at anytime?

 

Are the Sox new players somehow more "Slump Resistant"?

 

Neither of those slumps lasted two months.

 

And also, Green and Varitek were slumps all year long.

 

Don't know where you're coming from with this, since a lineup with nine productive hitters is less likely to slump than one with seven and two suckfests.

[Palodios]

For the first half of the year, Varitek's offensive stats were perfectly fine for a catcher.

 

I would also like to point out that Nick Green's first half stats (.257 .326 .395 .721) are extremely similar to Scutaro's career stats (.265 .337 .384 .721). With Green hitting like that, the team was more than happy with him at shortstop, so hopefully Scutaro will give us happy numbers.

[Dipre]

For the first half of the year, Varitek's offensive stats were perfectly fine for a catcher.

 

I would also like to point out that Nick Green first half stats (.257 .326 .395 .721) are extremely similar to Scutaro's career stats (.265 .337 .384 .721).

 

Varitek's post-break .489 OPS through 134 AB's was literally God-awful. Instead, you get Martinez' .837 OPS for a full season.

 

Nick Green's .502 post- break OPS was also an absolute black hole. Instead you get Scutaro's .721 career OPS for a full season.

 

That being said, we should expect some regression because of the downgrade from Bay to Cameron. Scutaro and Martinez should make up for some of it, but i still expect next year's team to score less runs than the 2009 model, but have a more consistent offense.

[Imperial59]

If you leave out 2004 (and I think you have to) that 2008 mark represents his career high. 35-45 walks is a more reasonable expectation. And a .290 average is a bit optimistic' date=' even with park factors figured in. Still, I can't rule it out I guess.[/quote']

 

If you leave out his career best, then you'd have to take out his career worst as well.

[Dipre]

If you leave out his career best' date=' then you'd have to take out his career worst as well.[/quote']

 

True, you should leave 2009 out (i think you have to) because the guy took a line drive to the nuts. Jesus, i cringe just thinking about it.