The John Lackey Thread

[BSN07]

Stop it, just stop it!! Have any of those worked out for us in recent memory?

 

BTW: Why is this still not final?

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/12/15/red_sox_zeroing_in_on_5_year_deal_for_lackey/

It's why it's called a "tentative" agreement

Ken Rosenthal did add in his article about Lackey, that the Sox are working on extension talks with Beckett

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10523180/Source:-Lackey-has-BoSox-physical;-deal-close?

 

Ok I'm on board now. Lester,Beckett, and Lackey 1-3 for the next 5 seasons will be strong. I don't care for the contract they are giving Lackey(supposedly), but I don't mind him at the #3 spot. Him being the the #1 or #2 might give me some worries

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Which is the reason I'd really like to see Theo switch to trying to dig Miggy out of Detroit or Hanley out of Florida. Both of these teams have much more reason to deal those players than Hoyer has to deal Gonzo..

For sentimental reasons, I want Miggy. Then I could troll the s*** out of another sports forum filled with idiot Detroit fans who said just last summer that there is no way Miggy would ever be traded and the Tigers as a franchise would never face financial problems because their owner founded a f***ing pizza place.

[CoachC.]

Heard this: The final number for Lackey and the Red Sox -- $87.5 million over five years, or $17.5 m. a year.

 

[SoxSport]

Forget about Cabrera. He doesn't fit their new "defense" thinking and is way too expensive. I think they'll go after AdGon using Buchholz as the bait. Not Beckett, as some as suggested. SD isn't going to trade a cheap star for an expensive star. They don't want big salaries. What about Ellsbury as bait? I doubt it--even though his agent is Boras (that might be enough of a reason to trade him). Ellsbury has a lot of speed and he can hit some. Walks, no. Defense good enough. But the speed fits in a lineup scoring fewer runs. Who knows. Maybe Tito will learn how to play smallball.

 

The rumors have them seeking another RHH outfielder. I think that signals the OF will be heavily platooned. What they do at the infield corners is the remaining question. Is it Beltre at 3B? Or Adgon at 1B? or Nick Johnson? The answer probably hinges on price/availability.

[BSN07]

 

I try not to get hung up on the $ amounts because it's not my money. But that seems pricey to me. Oh well they must know that it's going to take a very similar deal or more for Beckett. I hope they can work it out. I like a 1-3 of Lester, Beckett and Lackey much more then I like just a 1-2 punch of Lester-Lackey.

[Dipre]

Forget about Cabrera. He doesn't fit their new "defense" thinking and is way too expensive. I think they'll go after AdGon using Buchholz as the bait. Not Beckett, as some as suggested. SD isn't going to trade a cheap star for an expensive star. They don't want big salaries. What about Ellsbury as bait? I doubt it--even though his agent is Boras (that might be enough of a reason to trade him). Ellsbury has a lot of speed and he can hit some. Walks, no. Defense good enough. But the speed fits in a lineup scoring fewer runs. Who knows. Maybe Tito will learn how to play smallball.

 

The rumors have them seeking another RHH outfielder. I think that signals the OF will be heavily platooned. What they do at the infield corners is the remaining question. Is it Beltre at 3B? Or Adgon at 1B? or Nick Johnson? The answer probably hinges on price/availability.

 

Cabrera is an above average first baseman from everything i can see and read.

[BSN07]

Forget about Cabrera. He doesn't fit their new "defense" thinking and is way too expensive.

 

You forget the reason they are going Defense/pitching is because of the lack of availability of "marquee" bats.

 

Miggy will wind up costing them about 60M less the Tex would have. And Miggy's defense is average to above average at 1B. He has come along way.

 

Also with Miggys price tag the cost in prospects might be less.

 

I agree with you J_E, it would be funny to give some of the dumass Detroit fans some crap for thinking their team was immune to Detroits economical situaution

[Dojji]

Forget about Cabrera. He doesn't fit their new "defense" thinking and is way too expensive. I think they'll go after AdGon using Buchholz as the bait. Not Beckett, as some as suggested. SD isn't going to trade a cheap star for an expensive star. They don't want big salaries. What about Ellsbury as bait? I doubt it--even though his agent is Boras (that might be enough of a reason to trade him). Ellsbury has a lot of speed and he can hit some. Walks, no. Defense good enough. But the speed fits in a lineup scoring fewer runs. Who knows. Maybe Tito will learn how to play smallball.

 

The rumors have them seeking another RHH outfielder. I think that signals the OF will be heavily platooned. What they do at the infield corners is the remaining question. Is it Beltre at 3B? Or Adgon at 1B? or Nick Johnson? The answer probably hinges on price/availability.

 

Whoever they get they'll be paying Cabrera money at least for them in a couple years -- or letting them walk, which I don't see the Sox being willing to see happen.

[SoxSport]

I try not to get hung up on the $ amounts because it's not my money. But that seems pricey to me. Oh well they must know that it's going to take a very similar deal or more for Beckett. I hope they can work it out. I like a 1-3 of Lester' date=' Beckett and Lackey much more then I like just a 1-2 punch of Lester-Lackey.[/quote']

 

A few mil one way or another in a big contract doesn't matter much--spread out over 5 years.They probably overpaid some for the guy, but that's the price of bagging him without a bidding war.

 

What does matter is that Beckett now knows what his contract extension will be.The Lackey contract is his template. He might get a year or two more, since he is younger.

[jacksonianmarch]

He'll get a yr or two more AND should expect a couple mil per yr more. I wouldnt put a 6yr $120mil deal out of reach

[BSN07]

He'll get a yr or two more AND should expect a couple mil per yr more. I wouldnt put a 6yr $120mil deal out of reach

 

If he puts together a huge FA season together this year then probably yes. Right now he is probably looking at a Lackey/AJ deal IMO.

[Rdsxmbnt]

lol I love how Jacko and Gom ALWAYS try to jack up the prices on players we're going after/resigning

[SoxSport]

For the record, Olney later corrected the salary back to 5/82.5 on twitter. It's in MLBTradeRumors.com.

[Cocos Disciples]

6/120 would be absolutely absurd for Beckett, who has been worse than Lackey over the last four years.

[Dipre]

6/120 would be absolutely absurd for Beckett' date=' who has been worse than Lackey over the last four years.[/quote']

 

5/87 gets it done with Beckett. No one will pay him 100 mill, no matter how much Red Sox haters dream of someone else signing him at that amount.

[CoachC.]

5/87 gets it done with Beckett. No one will pay him 100 mill' date=' no matter how much Red Sox haters dream of someone else signing him at that amount.[/quote']

 

I'll be shocked if Beckett signs for less than 20 million per. The numbers are close but your leaving out a key component and thats name recognition. Beckett's name often gets tossed around when people start talking about the best pitchers in the game and because of that he is going to view himself in the league of the Santanas and the CC's and what not. He's going to look at CC's numbers and go I'm on his level not AJ's and John Lackeys level

 

Not only that but If I'm him I'm arguing he's done what he's done in the AL East and has been nearly unstoppable in the playoffs. You add in his age and what he is likely to get on the open market and I'm thinking he is at least looking at 5 for 110 or 6 for 126 but the per year is going to be 20 million plus w/out a doubt unless he gives a hometown discount which you never know, Maybe he really likes Boston and is willing to stay for less

 

The key for him is if he wants to test the market because you let him out there and there will be teams with out a doubt that will come in north of 20 million per. I can almost guarantee the Yankees will certainly go north of 20 and likely land somewhere around 21 or 22

[Dipre]

I'll be shocked if Beckett signs for less than 20 million per. The numbers are close but your leaving out a key component and thats name recognition. Beckett's name often gets tossed around when people start talking about the best pitchers in the game and because of that he is going to view himself in the league of the Santanas and the CC's and what not. He's going to look at CC's numbers and go I'm on his level not AJ's and John Lackeys level

 

Not only that but If I'm him I'm arguing he's done what he's done in the AL East and has been nearly unstoppable in the playoffs. You add in his age and what he is likely to get on the open market and I'm thinking he is at least looking at 5 for 110 or 6 for 126 but the per year is going to be 20 million plus w/out a doubt unless he gives a hometown discount which you never know, Maybe he really likes Boston and is willing to stay for less

 

The key for him is if he wants to test the market because you let him out there and there will be teams with out a doubt that will come in north of 20 million per. I can almost guarantee the Yankees will certainly go north of 20 and likely land somewhere around 21 or 22

 

The only team who can offer him 20 per are the Yankees, but i really don't think they'll go out of their way to sign him. I also doubt Beckett wants to test the market, i bet if they offer him that amount he bites on the spot.

[Cocos Disciples]

If Beckett wants 20M, he can get it somewhere else. He is closer in talent and numbers to Lackey and Burnett than to CC and Halladay. I think it's been brought up, but it's possible that Theo foresees Beckett's price being too high and got Lackey as a replacement. In this case I doubt Buchholz would get dealt. But who knows; if the Sox can extend Beckett for something like the 5/87 that Dipre said, I'm cool with that. Speaking of this topic, Joe Sheehan brought up an interesting idea today: trade Beckett in a 3 way deal for Gonzalez.

[SoxSport]

Halliday is getting 20 over 3 or 4 years in Philly. Lackey gets 16.5. My guess is Beckett belongs somewhere in between. He hasn't been all that great in the playoffs the last two years. Hurt two years ago. And he isn't as consistent as Halliday. He will certainly want more than Lackey--partly to stroke his ego.

 

It's tough to compare salaries in inflated Yankee dollars. They live in a different salary universe from the rest of baseball. But don't tell that to Boras or the other agents.

[Dipre]

If Beckett wants 20M' date=' he can get it somewhere else. He [i']is[/i] closer in talent and numbers to Lackey and Burnett than to CC and Halladay. I think it's been brought up, but it's possible that Theo foresees Beckett's price being too high and got Lackey as a replacement. In this case I doubt Buchholz would get dealt. But who knows; if the Sox can extend Beckett for something like the 5/87 that Dipre said, I'm cool with that. Speaking of this topic, Joe Sheehan brought up an interesting idea today: trade Beckett in a 3 way deal for Gonzalez.

 

It's a trend now.

[SoxSport]

On Beckett vs Lackey, I'm thinking the Sox may have made a statement to Beckett signing Lackey for 5/82.5. Maybe Beckett was asking for a Sabathia-type contract--which he will never get in Boston.

 

I think the Halliday and Lackey signings may get him down to earth.The Yankees grossly overpaid for C.C., especially in contract length, but were desperate to get him.

 

I wouldn't rule out some sort of deal involving Beckett, if they can't reach an agreement with him or his agent.

[CoachC.]

The only team who can offer him 20 per are the Yankees' date=' but i really don't think they'll go out of their way to sign him. I also doubt Beckett wants to test the market, i bet if they offer him that amount he bites on the spot.[/quote']

 

I think you'll be surprised who lines up with the 20 million dollar offers. I bet the Mets would get in on that, The Angels are freeing up a lot of money, Houston has 50 million coming off there books next year, the Dodgers, White Sox, and Atlanta all have close to 50 million coming off the books. All have shown they'll spend money

[CoachC.]

If Beckett wants 20M' date=' he can get it somewhere else. He [i']is[/i] closer in talent and numbers to Lackey and Burnett than to CC and Halladay. I think it's been brought up, but it's possible that Theo foresees Beckett's price being too high and got Lackey as a replacement. In this case I doubt Buchholz would get dealt. But who knows; if the Sox can extend Beckett for something like the 5/87 that Dipre said, I'm cool with that. Speaking of this topic, Joe Sheehan brought up an interesting idea today: trade Beckett in a 3 way deal for Gonzalez.

 

What gets done with Buchholz will def tell you a lot about what the Sox plan to do with Beckett. if they plan to let Beckett walk there is no way there trading him. If they do trade him they must feel pretty good that they can get a deal done

[Dipre]

I think you'll be surprised who lines up with the 20 million dollar offers. I bet the Mets would get in on that' date=' The Angels are freeing up a lot of money, Houston has 50 million coming off there books next year, the Dodgers, White Sox, and Atlanta all have close to 50 million coming off the books. All have shown they'll spend money[/quote']

 

Not 20 mill per on a pitcher. That's Yankee territory. And the Mets will again have too many needs to devote that much money in a single player. He may take a little hometown discount to play in Houston though.

[CoachC.]

Not 20 mill per on a pitcher. That's Yankee territory. And the Mets will again have too many needs to devote that much money in a single player. He may take a little hometown discount to play in Houston though.

 

Around 20 million per is the going rate for a premium pitcher these days especially one who has proven himself in the AL East and the playoffs. He'll be 30 years old when he's a FA. With the Angels basically letting everything go this year and they put in bids over 20 million for CC I imagine they will be right there. Houston knows Oswalt is getting up there and a home grown Texas pitcher can drive up attendance. The Dodgers are iffy with there situation but they have shown they will spend and the White Sox will do it if they think it will put them over the top to the playoffs.

 

Pitching is becoming wildly expensive in todays market. The aces of team staff's are now coming to expect to be paid like an everyday player and the second and third guys are getting paid like Aces where not 4 or 5 years ago. Its one reason why a team like the Red Sox are drafting so much pitching year after year because its becoming more financially smart to groom them yourself so you can keep the payroll in check. Plus when you need a bat nothing has a higher trade value then a good young arm to a team that limits their player spending

[Dipre]

Around 20 million per is the going rate for a premium pitcher these days especially one who has proven himself in the AL East and the playoffs. He'll be 30 years old when he's a FA. With the Angels basically letting everything go this year and they put in bids over 20 million for CC I imagine they will be right there. Houston knows Oswalt is getting up there and a home grown Texas pitcher can drive up attendance. The Dodgers are iffy with there situation but they have shown they will spend and the White Sox will do it if they think it will put them over the top to the playoffs.

 

Pitching is becoming wildly expensive in todays market. The aces of team staff's are now coming to expect to be paid like an everyday player and the second and third guys are getting paid like Aces where not 4 or 5 years ago. Its one reason why a team like the Red Sox are drafting so much pitching year after year because its becoming more financially smart to groom them yourself so you can keep the payroll in check. Plus when you need a bat nothing has a higher trade value then a good young arm to a team that limits their player spending

 

The problem with Beckett is teams have the leverage to negotiate a contract with him that would pay him an AAV that is between what Lackey and Halladay are being paid. It's that simple, he's not better than Halladay, so no one (except the Yanks) will pay him more.

[Spudboy]

Anyone stupid enough to offer 6/120 to Beckett deserves to have him.

 

I'm in agreement with Dipre here. 5/87ish gets it done for the Sox.

 

20/yr. Lol.

[CoachC.]

The problem with Beckett is teams have the leverage to negotiate a contract with him that would pay him an AAV that is between what Lackey and Halladay are being paid. It's that simple' date=' he's not better than Halladay, so no one (except the Yanks) will pay him more.[/quote']

 

In theory yes, but as proven almost every offseason theory can get blown right out of the water and you wake up to this one morning scrolling across the bottom of ESPN...

San Francisco Giants agree to 7 year 126 million dollar deal with Pitcher Barry Zito

 

I'll tell you whats going to be a real good Arb hearing and one that could completely change the face of baseball and the price of pitching and is that of Tim Lincecum. The rumor is he's going to put in a 23 million dollar figure from his side. To be honest he has the resume to ask for it. If that arbitration hearing ends up putting him anywhere near that you are going to see a lot of pissed off small market teams because now good young inexpensive pitching could get a whole lot more expensive

[Dipre]

In theory yes, but as proven almost every offseason theory can get blown right out of the water and you wake up to this one morning scrolling across the bottom of ESPN...

San Francisco Giants agree to 7 year 126 million dollar deal with Pitcher Barry Zito

 

I'll tell you whats going to be a real good Arb hearing and one that could completely change the face of baseball and the price of pitching and is that of Tim Lincecum. The rumor is he's going to put in a 23 million dollar figure from his side. To be honest he has the resume to ask for it. If that arbitration hearing ends up putting him anywhere near that you are going to see a lot of pissed off small market teams because now good young inexpensive pitching could get a whole lot more expensive

 

Barry Zito is actually one of the reasons Beckett's gonna have an extremely hard time finding someone to give him a 20 mill AAV. He will probably not be paid more than Halladay, unless the Yanks decide to pony up for him, and i don't see it happening.

[example1]

A few things from today...

 

While this is true' date=' I believe a middle of the order bat like Gonzalez or Cabrera is much more important then a #5 starter.[/quote']

 

I think picking up Gonzalez is worth losing a very solid 5 starter' date=' and replacing him with a questionable one. Gonzalez becomes our clean up hitter, which we never really had, and automatically makes our lineup comparable to the Yankees. I think Gonzalez will have an increase in production moving from San Diego (very pitcher friendly) to Fenway (very hitter friendly) so that's all the more reason to pull the trigger on this one imo[/quote']

 

Buchholz is a potential #1 starter who would be pitching out of the 5 spot. I'm not saying he projects to be a #1 in 2010, but down the road he does. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be moved for Gonzalez; only that the only way one can see it as a #5 for All Star hitter is if they are taking the win-now viewpoint. It is realistically a #2 or #3 for an All Star hitter, with the chance of him being a #1 for 4-5 years. That's a shitload of potential value, which is why San Diego would want him as a starting point. Which leads me to:

 

 

You're trying to get a 28 yr old 1b who has shown light tower power' date=' good OBP skills and a good glove who is also under control for 2 seasons at a massive discount. There is ZERO reason for Hoyer to actively try to deal this guy. You are going to have to blow him away. Fair trade value is out of the question here, it is going to have to be a deal of massive prospect proportions[/quote']

 

You should check out this interview with Larry Lucchino from a few days ago:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/11/larry-lucchino-on-dc-1211/

 

Among other interesting things:

 

We don’t discuss publicly what our payroll is because we think there’s a competitive disadvantage in telling the other teams in our division and our league what we’re going to spend and not spend because they may be able to do some guesses and calculations about how active we’ll be in the market. We’re always pleased when other teams announce that they’re payroll will be X or Y, and we just sit quietly and don’t say anything.

 

Q: Will [the Padres] trade Adrian Gonzalez? Will they have to?

 

There’s an example of a team that has identified where it’s payroll will be. They have said their payroll will be at $40 million, That’s very nice for us to hear that. We see now from published reports that their payroll currently is at about $36 million. So, we can calculate how severe the economic pressure may be on them to move players one way or another. Now, I’m giving you published numbers because I don’t have the internal calculations that we have right in hand. That’s a reason why we don’t crow about that the fact that our payroll in 2010 will be higher than our payroll in 2009, and we don’t issue specific comments about what that number will be. There’s a method to analyze other teams’ payrolls to determine whether there are some compelling economic reasons why they may want to make a certain move or not make a certain move.