Who's the better leadoff man?

[Dojji]

Denard Span

 

.392 OBP, .807 OPS, 69.6% steal success, 23 SB's

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

 

.355 OBP, .770 OPS, 85% steal success, 70 SB's

 

The reason I'm asking is I'd like to get the feeling of the board on the importance of "conventional" leadoff attributes, such as a high level of speed, versus the more modern values a guy like Span brings with his substantially higher OBP.

 

The reason I bring up those two rather than more archetypal examples that isolate specific attributes like, say, Carlos Gomez vs. David Dejesus, is that I'd like to see how people compare two players who use their skillset effectively, and which attributes are preferred when both players are doing their job well. I wanted to compare players who were very good at what they did, and find which parts of the skillset people considered most important.

 

These might not be the best examples in the history of ever, especially given Jacoby's adequate OBP, but I felt Span's low success rate sort of makes up for that, at least enough to allow people to kick off a conversation about it.

[Cocos Disciples]

They're both good for different reasons, but I imagine the OBP helps more than the low SB% hurts.

[yeszir]

If you ignore steals and recalculate OPS counting steals in TB, Ellsbury actually edges out Span with a 0.882 vs 0.847 OPS. I say push.

 

(This is what happens when I'm used to crunching numbers all day)

[Dojji]

So if you take that number, and subtract OPS, does that give you an Isolated Speed? So that .887-.770 is a .117 IsoS for Ellsbury, and a .040 IsoS for Span?

[Cocos Disciples]

It doesn't take CS into account though.

[bsox0407]

Span's batting stance annoys me so Jacoby.

[Dojji]

It doesn't take CS into account though.

 

Hmm.

 

So ([[TB + SB]/AB+ OBP] - OPS) * SB%?

 

If you multiply it by success rate, you get .117 * .85 = .0995 for Ellsbury, and .04*.69 = .0276 for Span, which really highlights the hige difference in their speed. I suspect if you did this for everyone .0276 is one of the higher numbers you'd come up with, but Ellsbury's way the heck up there at nearly .1, so it sort of brings things home in a way raw numbers don't do.

 

EDIT: I suck at math

[yeszir]

Simpler is better. Ellsbury averages slightly more bases per at bat is what I would say. Breaking numbers down too much causes them to lose their meaning.

[Dojji]

I suppose. Besides, I just realized I was adding SB to SLG, not OPS, in that equation anyway. lol. I'd like to play with it a bit before we put it away for good though.

[Dojji]

Well, I ran it on a spreadsheet using a few test cases using my little formula above and here's what I came up with. All numbers are 2009 values unless stated otherwise

 

Carl Crawford 0.0783

Carlos Gomez 0.0335

Brett Gardner 0.0880

Coco Crisp 0.0624

Coco Crisp (2008) 0.0412

Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0958

Jose Reyes (2008)0.0653

 

Seems to correlate fairly well with what we think about various speedsters. I'm not sure how useful it is, though -- it doesn't tell us anything we didn't really know. About all it really does is provide a one-off number that allows you to compare various speedy guys with each other. To be really valuable we need to take a step somehow to correlate all this with run creation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Span because he gets on base more. The entire job of a leadoff man is to see pitches and get on base. Span does that much better than Ellsbury does

[Keeper]

Right now, I'd have to say Span. If Ellsbury's plate discipline improves and he can get his OBP up to to .375 or so, I'd give him the edge because of how dangerous he is on the baespaths. One thing to remember is Span may get on base more, but Ellsbury is in scoring position a lot because of the steals. He hits more doubles than Span as well, which also gets him in scoring position.

[BigBadRedSox]

Ells is my boy, but ima go with Span. He gets on more and he can obviously steal.

[ORS]

It's really a toss up. Span created 101 runs with his higher OBP, and Ellsbury created 99 with his ability to move himself into scoring position. I'd make my choice based on the roster hitting behind them. With boppers in the Papi/Manny (circa 2005) mold, I'd go with Span and the Earl Weaver philosophy of waiting for the 3-run homer. With guys like Victor Martinez and Youkilis (good hitters, but not mashers), I'd go with the guy who can get himself into scoring position and is more likely to go 1st to 3rd and score from 1st on a double.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thats a sound argument.

[TheMino007]

From a Sox stand point of view, it makes you wonder how Ellsbury couldn't get to a 100 last year leading off for much of the year. He is also in the bottom third in terms of OBP for lead off hitters. Will he get any better? How much longer will it take? It takes more than a few years for some players to really hit there stride and live up to their full potential. Anyway, is Pedrioa a better option batting leadoff? He has done it before and in the event that Ellsbury is traded I would have full confidence in him. I don't see Ellsbury being traded anyway, but I prefer it going Ellsbury-Pedrioa 1-2 b/c Ellsbury has been improving since he entered the league.

[soxfanclub]

both are good but i prefer Ellsbury

[Mr Crunchy]

Ells needs just a little more patience at the plate and with his speed he'll become a premier leadoff guy sooner than later.

[162watch]

Ellsbury.

He can get on base a lot and judging by the amount of of steal attempts he has, he is shown to be aggresive which is exactly what we need at the start of the game. Span only gets on base a little bit more, but ellsbury can get into scoring position much more times.

[Emmz]

Ellsbury.

He can get on base a lot and judging by the amount of of steal attempts he has, he is shown to be aggresive which is exactly what we need at the start of the game. Span only gets on base a little bit more, but ellsbury can get into scoring position much more times.

 

Ellsbury's past two seasons:

 

.280/.336/.394 (87 OPS+)

 

.301/.355/.415 (97 OPS+)

 

Span's past two seasons:

 

.294/.387/.432 (122 OPS+)

 

.311/.392/.415 (114 OPS+)

 

Span's clearly better than Ellsbury at the plate man.

[neilpatrickharris]

They're both similar in terms of offensive output:

 

Ellsbury:

08: 16.2 VORP

09: 41.4

 

Span:

08: 20.5 VORP

09: 37.5

 

Not to mention Span spent almost all of 08' as a corner OF along with half of 09' which gives his value a bit of a hit

[Dipre]

Replacement value difference over a corner outfielder and a CF is enormous. It's not a "bit" of a hit.

[Keeper]

Replacement value difference over a corner outfielder and a CF is enormous. It's not a "bit" of a hit.

 

Yes, but since Ellsbury isn't much of a CF and will, in all likelihood, be moved to left field for much of the season, it doesn't really matter. Especially since this discussion is about who is the better leadoff man.

[Dipre]

Yes' date=' but since Ellsbury isn't much of a CF and will, in all likelihood, be moved to left field for much of the season, it doesn't really matter. Especially since this discussion is about who is the better leadoff man.[/quote']

 

VORP is strictly offensive.

 

If they were both in a corner, then Span would be much more valuable per VORP. Ellsbury is the better base-stealer, but Span does the one thing a lead-off man is really supposed to do much better, and that is get on base.

[Keeper]

VORP is strictly offensive.

 

If they were both in a corner, then Span would be much more valuable per VORP. Ellsbury is the better base-stealer, but Span does the one thing a lead-off man is really supposed to do much better, and that is get on base.

 

I know.

 

I should have clarified. I'm saying that Ellsbury will be moved to LF for much of 2010 because of Cameron. Therefore, Span and Ellsbury will both be primarily used as corner outfielders, making Span more valuable in terms of VORP.

[Dipre]

I know.

 

I'm saying that Ellsbury will be moved to LF for much of 2010 because of Cameron. Therefore, Span and Ellsbury will both be primarily used as corner outfielders, making Span more valuable in terms of VORP.

 

He should be. His higher value, as far as the Red Sox are concerned, is in a corner, where he's a much better defender.

[Emmz]

This is what I'm saying, though, Span is just quite a bit better at the plate than Ellsbury. He gets on base at a near .400 rate, which is very good. If he could improve on his power just a little bit, he would be a monster. Span was originally supposed to be the next in our line of CF excellence, it's something that our organization has made a note of. Gomez nearly ruined that, though.